Mears: Keep Betting the Warriors in the 3rd Quarter ATS While It Lasts

Mears: Keep Betting the Warriors in the 3rd Quarter ATS While It Lasts article feature image
Credit:

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Iguodala

The Warriors are now absolutely massive favorites to win the title, which means there isn't a whole lot of betting value left in this series. If you have a strong opinion on Warriors -4.5 or the current total of 215.5, go for it. But I think the best value still left to bet is on quarter spreads. Yes, I'm going to continue to beat this into the ground.



Locky: Warriors Could Turn Game 4 into a Laugher

Read now

Take a look at the Warriors' net rating (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions) by quarter this season:

  • 1st quarter: +2.0
  • 2nd quarter: +8.0
  • 3rd quarter: +18.5
  • 4th quarter: +3.2

That trend has continued throughout the postseason…

  • 1st quarter: +2.4
  • 2nd quarter: +5.8
  • 3rd quarter: +30.6
  • 4th quarter: +3.0

… and even in these NBA Finals:

  • 1st quarter: +5.3
  • 2nd quarter: +7.9
  • 3rd quarter: +16.2
  • 4th quarter: +13.6

This article usually requires a subscription, but today it's FREE. Enjoy! Click here to be kept in the loop on future promos.

In Game 1, the Warriors won the third quarter by six points, in Game 2 they lost by three, and in Game 3 they won by eight. Sportsbooks often don't adjust the spreads based on quarter performance, or at least not enough. In Game 4, they're currently -2.5 in the third quarter. If you've done nothing but bet the Warriors in that quarter this season, you're likely a bit richer.

And that's in stark contrast to the Warriors covering the full game. During the regular season, Golden State went just 34-48 (41.5%) against-the-spread, losing bettors $1,582 assuming $100 bets. During the postseason, the Warriors have been a bit better, going 11-9 ATS, but it's still about break-even. Why bet the full-game spread when there's a juicy third-quarter number waiting? Unfortunately, there might be only one more game to take advantage of this profitable trend this year.


More Coverage of Game 4

About the Author
Bryan is an editor and writer for The Action Network and FantasyLabs, with an emphasis on NBA, college basketball, golf and the NFL. He grew up right between UNC and Duke and has Luke Maye’s game-winning jumper against Kentucky in 2017 on permanent repeat in his house.

Follow Bryan Mears @bryan_mears on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.