Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Friday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Memphis Grizzlies Win Total
The Case for the Over (26.5, PointsBet)
There’s talent. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jonas Valanciunas (OK, he’s a little older), Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton… lots of intriguing talent.
Jackson may legitimately be the kind of transformational talent who accelerates growth so much in his second season that they vault to high-20s/low-30s territory. They have a handful of veterans like Jae Crowder, Kyle Anderson, Solomon Hill and I guess maybe Andre Iguodala if he gets bored and wants to come play for a while during his trade hiatus.
The number is really low for a team this talented, if nothing else.
The Case for the Under (27.5, DraftKings)
Too bad that young talented teams never win jack. This league is run by veterans who know what the hell they’re doing.
The Grizzlies do not. Dillon Brooks is a really underrated young player, but he was out for most of last year so he and Jackson don’t have chemistry yet. Morant and Clarke are rookies. Melton might as well be.
Even their coach is a rookie!
The Grizzlies have a top-10 strength of schedule by Vegas win totals in every month except December and January — and the second-toughest schedule overall after the All-Star break by that measure.
The Verdict
- The pick: Under 27.5
- Confidence: 6 out of 10
The Grizzlies will be fun as hell to watch and should also be bet against nightly if you’re stacking moneylines for parlays. Young teams don’t know what they’re doing, which gives them problems vs. even the low-talent, competent teams.
