Suns vs. Nuggets Odds
| Suns | +4.5 |
| Nuggets | -4.5 |
| Total | 228.5 |
| Date | Monday, May 1 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
The Denver Nuggets surprised some people with a 125-107 thrashing over the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series.
The Nuggets showed they have the depth to compete with anyone in the playoffs. Two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic went for 24-19-5, Jamal Murray dropped 34 points and Aaron Gordon had 23 points of his own.
Those guys have been primary players for the Nuggets all season. But Michael Porter Jr. rounds out the Nuggets' big four and he was quiet for the majority of the game. He scored just 11 points with three rebounds and two assists.
Our models believe Porter won't stay quiet for long.
Here's what our proprietary betting models say: there's an edge on Porter Jr.'s player props at BetMGM.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Michael Porter Jr. Player Prop Prediction, Projection
According to our algorithms, Porter is expected to score 17.88 points in Game 2 against the Suns.
Porter has struggled in his last two games. He scored just eight points on 3-for-11 shooting in the Game 5 win over the Timberwolves and then 11 points on 5-for-9 shooting vs. the Suns. He has made just three of his last 11 three-point attempts.
In his four previous playoff games, he had 15, 25, 16 and 18 points and was 11-for-26 from the three-point line. Considering he is a streaky shooter, there is good reason to believe he is due for a big scoring game.
BetMGM has set Porter's points prop at 16.5 with -105 on the over and -115 on the under. At a 17.88 point projection, that is considered a 10.2% edge on the over.
There is also a considerable edge on his points, rebounds and assists prop. BetMGM has set the PRA total at 23.5 with -130 on the over and +100 on the under. Our projections predict Porter at 26.43 which gives over 23.5 a 14.3% edge.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
Michael Porter Jr. Best Player Prop: Over 16.5 Points (-105).
