Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 Odds
| Nuggets Odds | -2.5 (-115) |
| Heat Odds | +2.5 (-105) |
| Total | 211.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Date | Friday, June 9 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Friday afternoon.
Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat tips off tonight.
The Nuggets got back to their winning ways after a dominating 109-94 victory in Game 3. The Nuggets now have a 2-1 lead over the Heat.
The Nuggets have done it on the backs of their two stars, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. In Game 3, both players recorded a 30-point triple-double. It was the first time teammates recorded a 30-point triple-double in a single game in NBA history.
Denver has relied upon Jokic and Murray throughout the playoffs but the Nuggets do have a third star who has picked up the slack when Jokic and Murray haven't been at their best. Michael Porter Jr. has had some impressive performances in the playoffs but he has yet to find his groove in the Finals.
That could change tonight.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Porter player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Porter to outperform his expected points and assists total.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Michael Porter Jr. Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Porter to outperform his total for points and assists tonight.
The models show Porter's points and assists total for Game 4 is way too low. BetMGM has set his points and assists total for 11.5 with -110 on the over and -120 on the under.
MPJ has only had one game in the Finals where he outperformed this total. That was in Game 1 when he dropped 14 points on 2-for-11 shooting.
Going back to the rest of the postseason, he outperformed this total in 13 of the 15 playoff games before the series against the Heat. He's due for a big game and the prognostication believes it could happen tonight.
Our algorithms expect Porter to get back to his scoring ways in Game 4 with 14.7 points and assists tonight. That's good enough for an edge above 26% on his points and assists total.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit size for each individual bet.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 11.5 Points and Assists (-110 at BetMGM)
