The Milwaukee Bucks (1-3) and Indiana Pacers (3-1) will face off in Game 5 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Pacers are 7.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Pacers -7.5), with the over/under set at 222.5 total points. Indiana is a -350 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks on Tuesday, April 29.
Bucks vs. Pacers Picks, Prediction for Tuesday, April 29
Spread
With Indiana on the brink of eliminating Milwaukee, we've seen this point spread move from -6.5 to as high as -8. However, if you can find -7.5 in the market, it's well worth a look.
Moneyline
I can only look to the Pacers in this spot, but with odds as high as -350 on the moneyline, this is an easy pass for me.
Over/Under
The total is particularly intriguing because I expect Milwaukee to struggle offensively without Damian Lillard. This game also has an early start time of 6 p.m. ET, which could lead to a slow start for the Bucks in the early frames.
My Pick: Bucks First Half Team Total Under 55.5 Points (-125, BetMGM)
Bucks vs. Pacers Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Bucks vs. Pacers spread: Pacers -7.5
- Bucks vs. Pacers over/under: 222.5 total points
- Bucks vs. Pacers moneyline: Bucks +280, Pacers -350
- Bucks vs. Pacers best bet:Bucks 1H Team Total Under 55.5 Points
Bucks vs. Pacers Game 5 Preview
While there are numerous ways to approach this game, I believe it's essential to consider all the different scenarios. And if you're a Pacers fan or just someone looking to back them in this game, you have quite a few options to choose from.
For example, although my pick is to fade the Bucks' first-half team total, it's rooted in my findings that Milwaukee is 0-4 against the first-half spread in this series.
Moreover, the Bucks have particularly struggled against Eastern Conference teams this season in games where Giannis Antetokounmpo had to suit up without Lillard.
Milwaukee is both 0-3 straight up and against the spread in this spot, averaging just 47.6 points in the 24 minutes. Couple those numbers with an early tipoff, and we have the right ingredients for the Bucks to stay under their first-half team total.
This spot looks more promising than simply fading Milwaukee on the first-half spread because we now have to pay a premium by laying 4.5 points.
The Bucks are in a similar situation to the one they faced in Game 1, but the market price to back Indiana was -3.5. That extra point could make a world of a difference, especially if both teams struggle offensively out of the gate.
Another option I considered was backing the Pacers in the first quarter at -2.5, but 12 minutes of basketball isn't always the best sample size for how a game will play out.
Nonetheless, I wouldn't have any qualms about someone looking to take such a position, especially if they were looking to amass a portfolio of Pacers' derivatives. But after examining all the options, the under for Bucks' first-half team total might give us our best chance to cash a winning ticket.
Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Predictions
There hasn't been much love lost between these teams, who have been at odds with one another since the previous campaign. Therefore, Indiana would love nothing more than to bounce Milwaukee out of the playoffs for a second straight season.
This matchup feels like a maximum effort type of game, and I expect to see that level of intensity from Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton has a rebounding prop of 4.5, a number he's cleared in five straight games against Milwaukee. Considering that the Bucks rank in the bottom third for rebounds allowed, they're the type of opponent that Haliburton can thrive against on the glass.
It's also worth noting that he's also covered this line in 13 of his last 19 meetings when facing the Bucks.
Milwaukee has also elected to operate with a smaller lineup in an effort to counter Indiana's speed. Bucks center Brook Lopez has gone from averaging 31.2 minutes during the regular season to not even logging 15 minutes in either of the past two games.
Given this switch in personnel by Milwaukee, Haliburton stands an even greater chance of grabbing five or more rebounds. Thus, his rebounding prop would be a worthy option as part of a same-game parlay with the Bucks' first-half team total.
Bucks vs. Pacers Best Bet for Game 5
- Bucks 1H Team Total Under 55.5 Points (-125)
Bucks vs. Pacers Parlay Picks for Tuesday
- Bucks 1H Team Total Under 55.5 Points
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 4.5 Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +185
Pacers vs. Bucks Betting Trends
