The Minnesota Timberwolves may have started to solve the Mavericks, but it also might be too late.
The Wolves' primary issue to start this series — beyond Karl-Anthony Towns falling into his usual slapstick comedy pit of failure and Anthony Edwards being unable to hold up his end of the offensive bargain — is that they simply couldn't match up with the Mavericks the way they did with other teams.
Jaden McDaniels was a great matchup for Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. Rudy Gobert is about as good as it gets against Nikola Jokic. Edwards bullied Murray as the primary defender and handled the Kevin Durant assignment.
But McDaniels simply doesn't match up with Luka Doncic. He's a slim, quick defender who's great at navigating screens and disrupting handle. That doesn't work at all against Doncic. Doncic doesn't rely on his quickness; he relies on his strength.
But the Wolves kept throwing McDaniels on Doncic because, well, he's their best defender.
The Mavericks have a 116 offensive rating in this series with Luka on the floor against McDaniels.
In Game 1, McDaniels guarded Doncic for almost nine minutes of game time, by far the most of any matchup. In Game 2, it dropped to seven minutes and 30 seconds, but it still was the most time of any defender on Doncic. In Game 3, it dropped to six minutes and 30 seconds, but again, that was Luka's primary matchup.
The Wolves went 0-3.
Then came Game 4. In Game 4, the Wolves put Edwards on Doncic full-time. McDaniels only spent three minutes and 30 seconds guarding Doncic. McDaniels shifted to Kyrie Irving, who he had defended only in small spurts in this series.
When Irving has been on the floor against McDaniels, the Mavericks are -10. When Irving is on the court and McDaniels is off, the Mavs are +31.
Doncic is 8-of-23 against Edwards in this series after going 4-of-14 in Game 4. Edwards is not a Luka stopper. There isn't one. But the Wolves are moving away from bad matchups.
Game 4 was the first game in this series in which the Wolves held the Mavericks to under 110 points per 100 possessions.
For all the talk of the Mavericks' incredible defense, this has been an offensive series. The first three games — all Mavericks wins — were all overs. Game 4 — the lone Wolves win — was an under.
The other component, however, was Dereck Lively II's absence in Game 4.
The Mavericks are +22 when Lively is on-court in this series and -14 when he's on the bench or out. He's been that important.
Notably, it's been the offense that's won the Mavericks those minutes. The Mavs' offense is 28.6 points better with Lively than without — even though the defense has been 7.7 points worse.
The Mavericks were very careful to make sure to point out that Lively is not and has not been in the concussion protocol. There's a very strong chance that he plays in Game 5. If he does, that alone might be enough — since the Wolves haven't figured out any sort of counter to those minutes.
But the Mavericks need to finish this series off quickly.
The later it goes, the more the Wolves are finally figuring out some of the problems the matchup presents and how to counter it. If they can get another good game from Towns — along with reduced minutes for Naz Reid and more minutes for Kyle Anderson — Minnesota can extend this series and the pressure will start to rise.
The Mavericks don't have to counter all the counters from Minnesota; they just need to win one game.
The advantages in the matchup have gotten them to three wins, and they can just skip into the Finals if they can just win a basketball game.
But there are signs Minnesota is slowly starting to even out the tactical side.
The Mavericks need to slam the door before the Wolves really find the most dangerous thing: hope.
