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NBA players have an open disdain for back-to-back games in the regular season. The 82-game grind is hard enough without the wear and tear associated with playing on consecutive days.
The NBA has taken steps to reduce the number of back-to-backs. This year the league average is 12.4 back-to-backs per team, down from 13.3 the year before and 19.3 five years ago.
Players might dislike back-to-backs, but these matchups create a profitable betting opportunity for gamblers. However, you can’t just bet any team playing consecutive games.
Odds as of Monday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Since 2004, teams on a back-to-back have gone 3,979-4,030-139 (49.7%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. The win rate improves if these squads meet the following criteria:
- Road team: Home-court advantage is overrated
- Early season: Teams are fresh and less likely to be fatigued by a back-to-back
Road teams on a back-to-back early in the season (Games 2-12) have gone 235-172-5 (57.7%) ATS since 2004. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,331 following this strategy.
The Warriors, Blazers and Hornets played on Sunday and will lace up their sneakers once again on Monday. Each team is on the road and will be a match for our system.
Casual bettors will likely think Golden State, Portland and Charlotte are at a disadvantage playing consecutive games, but the data shows NBA teams have been undervalued in this scenario early in the season.
Monday Matches:
- Warriors +3.5 at Pelicans (8 p.m. ET, NBATV)
- Blazers +5.5 at Spurs (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Hornets +15.5 at Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET, NBATV) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
