Welcome to the NBA All-Star Weekend, where defense is a myth, effort is optional, and someone’s drunk uncle wants to somehow bet the non-existent Over on the Skills Challenge. The Three-Point Contest? Bet on who can hit the goofy Starry shots. The Dunk Contest? Pray someone actually lands one.
As for the game itself, good luck guessing when the players will start caring — probably right as they’ve figured out the format 10 minutes after the tournament has started. If you’re feeling brave, sprinkle some cash on a dark horse MVP, but remember: the safest bet is that nobody will play defense until it’s way too late.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for the All-Star 3-Point Contest tonight.
NBA All-Star 3-Point Contest Predictions, Picks, Odds
By Matt Moore
The 3-Point Contest is the most fun thing to bet at All-Star Weekend. This year’s 3-Point corps doesn’t feature hometown hero Steph Curry. But it does present some value with the unknown.
Damian Lillard is the favorite as he attempts to become only the third three-time winner, along with Larry Bird and Craig Hodges (?!).
But Lillard fails most of my preferred metrics. He’s only 30 percent from the right corner compared to 57 percent from the left, and I’m always looking for consistency from location to location.
He’s made the most Starry-range shots by far at 97 makes, but he’s 33 percent on them the last three years. Plus, Lillard is slightly down overall in 3-point shooting, beneath 40 percent from corners and above the break.
So that leaves…
Darius Garland to Win 3-Point Contest (+600)
I’ve been forced to look at Starry range first after correctly picking the better shooters the last two years but losing on the Starry shots from 29 feet.
Garland surprisingly has the second-most from 29-45 feet the last three seasons behind Lillard of the group, with 45 makes. Not just makes, though, Garland also has averaged 41 percent from that range, way better than Lillard’s 33 percent.
This is an arena Garland can really make a name for himself and I love his odds here.
My other bet is Jalen Brunson. Brunson leads the group in Starry range efficiency at 42 percent, and is right around 40 percent on corner threes and 44 percent above the break. His ability to get through the rack will be tough, but he profiles like a guy who could win.
PICK: Darius Garland (+600), Jalen Brunson (+850)
Darius Garland to Win 3-Point Contest (+600)
By Joe Dellera
Darius Garland is pacing the field with a 43% shooting percentage from beyond the arc.
He’s able to score in a variety of different ways too. Handoffs, catch and shoot, as well as off the bounce which is critical to have that versatility here.
Additionally, he has significant range and is shooting 41% from Starry Range, second best in this field.
Handoffs are closer to the motion needed for this contest than Catch and Shoot. Garland is shooting 50% on those this season – the best mark in the field as well.
Garland has no weak points either. He is 40%+ from each spot around the arc which isn’t the same for his competition. With his all around performance, I like Garland to break Damian Lillard’s streak as the 3-point champ.
PICK: Darius Garland (+600)
