NBA All-Star MVP Odds, Pick, Best Bet for Tonight’s 2024 All-Star Game

The 2024 NBA All-Star Game is here! The NBA recently switched back to an East vs. West format with a traditional ending, which means we've got a more straightforward task in front of us when it comes to predicting tonight's NBA All-Star MVP.

Even though the award seems tough to predict, we can identify the most likely factors and narrow it down to a few candidates. Here's everything you need to know about tonight's NBA All-Star MVP odds and our pick and best bet for the winner of the 2024 award.

2024 NBA All-Star MVP Odds, Pick, Best Bet

Pick: Damian Lillard at +1100, .25u (ESPN BET) | Bet down to +1000

2024 NBA All-Star Game MVP Prediction

Here are the main criteria:

MVP will (probably) be won by a starter: 13 of the last 14 winners have been starters, and Russ and Shaq are the only two non starters to have won this century. No injury replacement starter has won either. Since there are only 10 starters, this greatly narrows down the list of candidates, and it's where we are going to start when trying to find who to bet for MVP.

The MVP will come from the winning team: This one is obvious and true for any MVP of a single game event. The West is slightly favored, but not enough to eliminate any East candidates for me.

They have been to an all star game, "tried" in the game, are new winners, and aren't too old: 12 of the last 14 winners were playing in at least their fourth all star game, and no player has won All StarMVP in their first season as a starter. The oldest (non-tie) winner was Steph Curry at 34 in 2022. Winners tended to have taken all star games seriously in the past (we will get into why this matters for two candidates). Finally, from 1992 to 2011, half of the winners had won the award previously. Since then, only 3 winners out of 14 had previously won the award. We are probably looking for a new winner.

They are motivated: This is the toughest thing to judge, but almost every winner has found some reason to be more motivated for the game. For example, last year Jayson Tatum clearly wanted to go all out and win the Kobe Bryant MVP in the first year that the award was named, since he idolized Kobe Bryant.

Shooting from long range may be a factor: As 3 point shooting has gone up across the NBA, so too has it gone up in the All Star Game. 4 of the last 5 winners all led the game in 3 pointers made, and the lone exception (Giannis ) shot 3 of 3 from 3. We are probably looking for someone who has a good chance to hit a lot of 3s.

Pick: Damian Lillard at +1100, .25u (ESPN BET) | Bet down to +1000

Let's run through the nine starters (no injury replacement announced for Embiid) to figure out who it makes sense to bet, from worst to best value.

Nikola Jokic (+5000) and Luka Doncic (+1100): Luka and Jokic never try in All Star games. Luka averages 7 points across 4 games , and Jokic averages 6 across his 5 games. Neither seem likely to change the pattern, and both aren't real candidates to win MVP.

Kevin Durant (+800) and LeBron James (+1900): It's possible the age curse may be broken, but I don't think there is any value on either of them at their age. They are in better shape than earlier players, but neither is likely to be willing to put forth the energy in this type of game, given they are 35 and 39. Plus, LeBron has made it clear he'll be limiting his minutes (and likely his effort) tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+950): Shai is not a volume 3-point shooter, and he thrives off of midrange jumpers. It's not a great fit with the all star game, and I don't think he will suddenly start. He scored 9 points in 10 minutes in 2023, with only one 3-pointer. He has a real chance, but I'd judge him unlikely.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600) and Jayson Tatum (+950): Tatum won last year, and Giannis won the year before. Both of them could be motivated, but the trends seem to imply the chances of repeating are slim. Neither has any extra motivation or something to prove coming into this game either.

Dame Lillard (+1000): Dame is a volume 3-point shooter and a back-to-back 3-Point Contest winner who has never won MVP, coming into a game off of an okay season with something to prove for Milwaukee this year. I'm worried about his ankle injury, and whether he will play the whole time, but if he does, he could very easily bomb away and win MVP. Lillard has taken 20, 16, and 17 3-point attempts in his last three games, and a hot shooting game would put him as MVP.

Tyrese Haliburton (+800): Haliburton is playing in his second All Star game. Last season, he scored 18 points in 14 minutes on 4 of 6 shooting from 3. He is a lethal 3 point shooter, and will also get a great chance to show off his passing chops. The game is in Indianapolis as well, which means he has motivation to show out for the Indy crowd. Over the last 24 seasons, 8 of the winners have had some sort of connection to the city, whether they are from there or play for the team. Like Dame, health is a factor, but he is participating in the Skills Competition already, and seems likely to be a full go come game time.

I don't consider anyone coming off the bench to be a real candidate, since it's just too unlikely. Which leads me to two bets:

Pick: Damian Lillard at +1100, .25u (ESPN BET) | Bet down to +1000

We also bet Tyrese Haliburton at +1600 for .25u and also would have bet this down to +1000, but Haliburton's odds are now shorter than that across the board.

Both guards have been great value, and I expect one of them to go all out and one of them to come away with All Star Game MVP.