Throughout the season, I (Wob) have been tracking who my leader in the clubhouse is to win every major NBA end-of-season award, including:
- Most Valuable Player
- Rookie of the Year
- Sixth Man of the Year
- Most Improved Player
- Coach of the Year
- Executive of the Year
- Defensive Player of the Year
It's time for an update. Let's get to it. — Matt Moore and Rob Perez
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Odds: -250
Wob: Can we take a quick second to appreciate Wilt Chamberlain? I understand his competition was a bunch of Kyle Singlers, but the fact that James Harden was even in the same stratosphere of some of his records, against the talent level he has to face in 2019, is one of the most ridiculous offensive stretches in NBA history.
What Harden did with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out cannot be overlooked, but here are the problems:
- Voter fatigue
- Energizer Giannis
Harden won last year. The MVP trophy, throughout time, has been awarded to the player who had the best season — not necessarily the best player in the league, otherwise LeBron and Jordan would have won it for a decade straight.
To draw the attention of voters and repeat, he was going to have to do the unthinkable: have a better season than last year. For three weeks, he did just that, which explains his MVP odds exploding to -500 at one point.
But here’s the problem: Giannis has not stopped, does not stop and will never stop. He hasn’t taken his foot off the gas since Day 1 of the season. While Harden had the world’s attention occupied, Giannis just kept spreading doom on the rest of the league under-the-radar.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, #FearTheDeer: 28.52
Over his last 10 games, Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.6 blocks while slashing 60.7/40/79.5. His team has gone 10-0 during the 10-game stretch.https://t.co/cMK94AC48Apic.twitter.com/f7NNNq9V4W
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) February 25, 2019
In his last 10 games (not counting last night with his minutes monitored), Giannis has AVERAGED:
- 29.8 points
- 12.3 rebounds
- 6.8 assists
- 1.5 steals
- 1.6 blocks
With 60.7% – 40.0% – 79.5% shooting splits.
He’s the best player on the team with the best record in the league. He’s arguably better on defense than he is on offense. No matter how many Wilt records Harden breaks, he will never be able to say that.
Moore:The straw poll results really suprised me. Giannis is way ahead of the pack at this point. And, to tease my deeper dive on this that's coming down the road, I think the reason is best described as follows:
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most dominant player in the league this season. He takes over games offensively. He takes over games defensively. His team just runs rougshod over you. He's physically dominant. He's skill-dominant with his passing. That's why the Bucks have won all these games vs. all these different opponents — good, bad, mediocre, whatever. He's the most dominant player in the league.
What is most interesting to me at this point is that I truly think Paul George is second, and that's wild considering Harden is averaging the second-most points per game in the last 50 years while also posting eight assists a game.
Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic
Odds: -10000
Wob: This race has been over for quite a while, but for the sake of content I’d like to play devil’s advocate for a second.
Trae Young’s splits the last 30 games: 43.9% – 40.4% – 84.8%.
He has the most amount of 30-point games for the Hawks franchise since Dominique Wilkins.
Check out this stretch:
- 27 points (9-21 FG) and 8 assists vs. Suns
- 28 points (9-20 FG) and 9 assists vs. Jazz
- 23 points (7-12 FG) and 8 assists vs. Kings
- 26 points (10-18 FG) and 8 assists vs. Clippers
- 30 points (11-15 FG) and 8 assists vs. Blazers
And 53.5% – 42.9% – 80% shooting in these five games specifically.
Luka so far this season: 43% – 35% – 72%.
Trae has really turned it around fast, and his highlights are starting to stack up.
Bruce Brown Jr. still running in circles looking for this pass pic.twitter.com/fIW4VzriSf
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) February 23, 2019
Is it THAT much of a blowout? No. Does the eye test confirm Luka is the unanimous Rookie of the Year? Yes.
Moore: I don't get the angst over Trae not being higher up in the conversation. He's going to win second place hands-down. He's going to get a fair amount of first-place votes. He's had a great rookie season, and everyone knowledgeable says, "Yeah, he's having a really great year, especially the last two months."
He's not overlooked or disrespected. Luka being consistently the best rookie player in the league and the best player on a team over 30 wins is not some sort of massive insult.
Here's a more interesting question: Who's going to have the better career? Because honestly? I think Young might have a little more upside.
I'm not saying Luka won't improve, but I can see Doncic being in the same range for his career. Then again, I had wondered if he was a guy who could lead you in scoring, and he's been ballistic. This is going to be fun for years to come.
Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams
Odds: -112
Wob: Up, down, round and round we go. The leader in the clubhouse for Sixth Man of the Year has changed seemingly every week.
Sometimes Derrick Rose goes off like it’s 2011, showing us that his transformation to basketball’s version of Greg Maddux is complete. Maddux lost his fastball and developed the league’s most devastating change-up to prolong his career way past borrowed time.
Rose lost his bunnies and has spawned a wet mid-range/long distance jumpshot out of complete NOWHERE. But he still gets hurt and misses games, and when he does it’s like Lou Williams knows and saves his best stuff for when Rose is ailing.
With Tobias Harris gone, Sweet Lou has taken over (if he hadn’t already) as the team’s go-to scoring option down the stretch. He is a walking bucket and has been for the entirety of his career. Now that his usage rate has increased with one less scorer out there, the production and efficiency is there as well.
I know Lou isn’t the 'sexy' pick here because 1) he plays for the Clippers, 2) he wins it all the time it feels like and 3) Rose winning would be a great story. But I just don’t know how you give the award to anyone else right now. He’s too good and too important to a playoff-contending team.
Moore: All these choices are stupid, and it reflects the fundamental failure of the league to understand what Sixth Man is. The first guy off the bench should be the dude who best anchors your second unit and can fit with the starters. Lou's leading bench players in scoring and assists, and his Net Rating is good because his team is good. Fine. But let's be real here: the Clippers basically rigged this.
Lou Williams is the second-best player on the team behind Montrezl Harrell, and neither of those guys start. It's a disgrace. It's chicanery. It's also… look, Williams is a fine player and a marvelous scorer, but we've seen his teams fail to really be serious threats time and time again.
Maybe that's too high a bar for Sixth Man, but I'd rather we reward a guy who brings a squad together and really manages that Sixth Man role and contributes to winning.
Domantas Sabonis, Monte Morris, Andre Iguodala, Davis Bertans — all of these guys feel impactful and key for their roles in a way that Williams, a starter gunner who happens to come off the bench, doesn't. And if we're going to allow the Clippers' nonsense with their starters, why not Harrell, who's now the best player on the team?
I just think this entire award is stupid because it just becomes "who has the most points per game off the bench." But Williams' stellar on-court Net Rating validates him. I accept he's going to win and there's no value in betting on this. It's just irritating.
Most Improved Player: Pascal Siakam
Odds: -250
Wob: This is without a doubt the most difficult award to define. MVP is either "best player" or "best season," depending on your interpretation. Most Improved Player is more open-ended.
The way I judge this award is as follows: the player whose TALENT and IMPACT has improved the most from last season to this season.
That sounds obvious, but it’s not because there are people out there who think De’Aaron Fox should win this award. Fox has been SO damn good this season, but let the record show — he hasn’t really improved.
Fox has ALWAYS been this good. It is a compliment that I think he should not be in the running. His statistics have gotten better, his efficiency is off-the-charts compared to years past and the team’s record has hockey-sticked vs. seasons past.
But since I’ve always viewed him as this supremely talented, I don’t think the DIFFERENCE in the level his game was at last season and now in this current campaign is even close to the three front-runners: Domantas Sabonis, Montrezl Harrell and Pascal Siakam.
Montrezl and Pascal weren’t irrelevant last year, but they were pretty close in regards to their on-the-court presence impacting their teams’ productivity at a championship level. They were role players.
Now, they’ve both EXPLODED as vital contributors whose absences would be damning to their respective franchise’s chances of winning. I know what I’m watching — two guys who have taken their perceived 'potential' to unforeseen levels.
Moore: Siakam is definitely running away with it. The fact that he's a third-year player and not a second-year guy kind of cements it. He's evolved into a near-All-Star on the second-best team in the East and honestly might be the second-biggest reason for Toronto's success this year.
I do think Monte Morris, who played entirely in the G League last year; Malik Beasley, who went from garbage-time guy to a starter for the second-best team in the West and D'Angelo Russell all deserve consideration.
Coach of the Year: Mike Budenholzer
Wob: This felt like Kenny Atkinson’s award to lose for a while there. The Nets, crushed by injuries to some of their best players (Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie) were still surging out of nowhere. Atkinson has built a culture which every other NBA franchise should be jealous of; he has these guys committed, thinking and playing like every night is Game 7.
They are unselfish. They sit up like The Undertaker EVERY TIME after suffering a devastating defeat. This is no accident. HOW are they the 6-seed in the Eastern Conference? Truly inexplicable when you look at this roster.
But here’s the problem: They were doing it against a soft schedule, and now they’ve got the Western Conference gauntlet quickly approaching.
In the meantime, Budenholzer has transformed the Bucks into a “Wow, can you imagine if…?” team into a legitimate title contender seemingly overnight. He has unleashed a version of Giannis that is unguardable by any human, let alone player, on Planet Earth. He’s solved every problem that the Bucks had under Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty.
This is a freight train from hell, and it’s all thanks to Budenholzer finally figuring out the formula to make this delicious concoction of pace-and-space basketball work.
Moore:Where in hell is Michael Malone? He has the second-best team in the West with wins over the Warriors, a 3-0 Thunder sweep, an 8-1 division record, wins over Boston and Toronto, a top-five offense and a top-10 defense and is doing all this when Will Barton missed three months and Paul Millsap and Gary Harris missed a month?
Malone's been without three starters most of the year; he's starting Beasley, Torrey Craig and Juancho Hernangomez and they are tied in the loss column for the best record in the Western Conference.
Let's stress that last part — in the Western Conference. They're 8-1 vs. a division that contains four teams currently in the playoff race, including themselves, with Minnesota only a few games out. They have the best home record. They have the best Western Conference record. The Nuggets have a top-10 defense with Nikola Jokic at center.
Budenholzer needs to be the leader in the clubhouse, but context really reveals how much of his impact was simply 'replacement value.' Not being Jason Kidd with this roster gets you 80 percent of the way there. Budenholzer has been great at lineups and adjustments and making the most out of it, but Malone needs recognition for not only having done more but having done more with a lot of adversity.
Executive of the Year: Masai Ujiri
Wob: I am shamelessly copying and pasting what I said around Week 5 of this leaderboard tracking because nothing has changed:
This is the most obvious on the board. It needs to be restated why the acquisition of Kawhi Leonard was a no-lose situation for Toronto: They acquired the best player in the Eastern Conference at the peak of his powers.
They look to be Finals bound or damn near close to it with an 11-player deep rotation of guys who would start on just about any other team in the league.
And most importantly, should Kawhi leave in free agency this summer, Masai Ujiri can blow everything up and rebuild instantly without the burden of any long-term contracts haunting the salary cap.
I also love how he's willing to put business over everything.
It's a harsh tactic — I understand there are always emotions and relationships to consider when including a big name in a transaction — but the DeRozan trade proved Ujiri will do anything to make this team better.
We all saw Kyle Lowry's "he's the President of Basketball Operations, and that's it" comment after being asked about his relationship with Masai. He said he felt betrayed because DeMar felt betrayed. Completely reasonable.
But Ujiri is not hosting an episode of Dr. Phil here; he is trying to win a championship.
"Loyalty" between front office executives and players is just a word in the dictionary, nothing more. It's refreshing to see blunt honesty from both sides, and in the end I think they'll all end up respecting each other more because of how this all went down.
Oh, and by the way, he acquired Marc Gasol for Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles and a 2024 second-round pick. He also re-stocked his depleted bench from the trade with Jeremy Lin and Jodie Meeks for nothing in return. Are you kidding me?
Moore: Counter-argument: Masai made the league's best bench worse, we don't know how the Gasol thing is going to work out and so much of the value of the Kawhi gambit rests on re-signing him.
I'd look at Lawrence Frank in L.A. Frank has managed to set the Clippers up for a massive summer, get great return for a future free agent in Tobias Harris they weren't going to keep and stock the roster with tradeable assets and great young players… while still keeping them in playoff contention. Reward the executives who split the gap!
I'd also look at Elton Brand, who traded for two All-Stars mid-season. Sixers fans may not love it because of the Process guys surrendered, but they stocked up on talent to make a playoff run. That's what you should do when you have a talent like Joel Embiid.
Defensive Player of the Year: Paul George
Odds: -250
Wob:You just had a 1-on-1 exclusive with PG, so take it away, Matt….
Moore: Honestly, at this point the race is still wide open and there may be best value here no matter who you get money on in the top tier of guys.
But Paul George's defensive impact is so complete he's at the top. I just think it's tough for big men to win this award this year. Rudy Gobert rightfully won it last year, but we've seen teams expose him a little more on the perimeter. You can scheme out Gobert in a way you can't George. He's omnipresent.
I think Myles Turner may be the outside threat you want to consider. His numbers are incredible, he's got the block and rebound figures and his versatility is a little higher than Gobert's.
I like a bet on George with a hedge on Turner. Pay close attention to on-court vs. off-court numbers — more and more voters are using that as a means to determine impact, and George leads all candidates in that regard, with the Thunder defense 5.6 points better per 100 possessions with him on-court. George is also a top-five player in deflections this year, as well as leading the league in steals.