NBA Best Bets · Monday, Jan. 22
The NBA regular season continues on Monday, January 22, and our Action Network NBA betting experts have found seven best bets. They have five player prop bets and two totals worth tailing across six different games.
Find their NBA Best Bets and expert picks, including a pick for Celtics vs. Mavericks, below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. 76ers
Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 Assists
By Joe Dellera
The Philadelphia 76ers host Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in what should be a fast-paced matchup. While all eyes will be on Wembanyama vs Embiid, the player I want to target is Tyrese Maxey.
Maxey sees a significant swing in his assists when playing alongside Embiid compared to when Embiid sits. When Maxey plays with Embiid he averages 6.9 assists per game compared to just 5.7 when Embiid sits. This assists line of 6.5 is one Maxey has exceeded in 58% of games with Embiid.
This matchup against the Spurs is excellent, too. The Spurs present a pace-up opportunity as they play at the fourth-fastest Pace in the NBA and they have the 24th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating. This means there should be even more opportunities for Maxey to set up this Sixers offense to score tonight.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 Assists
Joel Embiid to Make 2 or More 3s
We know Joel Embiid destroys bad teams. Here's why I'm taking a shot at him to make two or more 3s:
For one, Embiid to make over 0.5 3s is just -200. Embiid has only hit two or more from deep in 10 of 31 games this season, but he's done it in seven of his last 16 efforts.
Additionally, teams are getting a ton of open looks against the Spurs and cashing. The Spurs have allowed teams to shoot 39% from 3 — the third-highest mark in the league. Opponents make about 14 3s per 100 possessions, which is tied for fourth in the NBA.
Victor Wembanyama leads the NBA with 3.2 blocks per game, but he hasn't played Embiid yet. Brook Lopez ranks second at 2.9 blocks per game: Embiid went 3-for-7 from 3 against him in October.
Chet Holmgren is tied for fifth with Anthony Davis at 2.5 blocks per game. Embiid went 0-for-4 from deep against Holgrem, but still shot four when they played in November. Against Davis, he shot 2-for-3 from deep two days later.
Again, it's +215 for a reason, but there's enough here for me to take a shot at it.
Pick: Joel Embiid to Make 2 or More 3s
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Cavaliers vs. Magic
As someone who watched a lot of Miami Heat last season, I thought Max Strus' start to this season was bullsh*t.
Strus was one of my fallers in our weekly fantasy basketball column last week, and now he's extended the sample size. Strus averaged about 14-5-4-1.5 stocks from Oct. 25 through Dec. 23. Since then, over the last month, he's down to about 9-4-3.5-1.7 stocks in his last 10 games, going over 12.5 points just twice.
He's liable to go off on any given night, but he's not the 3-point specialist he looks like. He's got that midwest feistiness that fans and general managers love, so much so that you don't even notice he's shooting 40/34/81 splits because he hits a big shot every now and again. But even in his first two months, he was 40% from the field and 35% from 3.
I think you're gonna have a positive ROI if you fade him until the books adjust.
Pick: Max Strus Under 12.5 Points
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Bucks vs. Pistons
By Joe Dellera
The Milwaukee Bucks take on the Detroit Pistons in a rematch from Saturday when Milwaukee narrowly escaped with a 141-135 victory.
One player to keep an eye on is Giannis Antetokounmpo: He is having another tremendous season, but Antetokounmpo has a penchant to turn the ball over and is averaging 3.7 turnovers per game.
Antetokounmpo just turned the ball over five times against the Pistons on Saturday, and I like him to turn the ball over again here.
There are multiple paths to a cash — whether it is a bad pass or a charge. In particular, those are two areas where Antetokounmpo is susceptible against a Pistons team that plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the league and has some size on the interior that can absorb contact.
Couple that with the fact that Antetokounmpo does not have the best handle, and there are plenty of opportunities for him to reach three or more turnovers — a number he has reached in 78% of games this season.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Turnovers (-150)
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Grizzlies vs. Raptors
The matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors features a lot of players in abnormal basketball situations and makes for a strong under play.
The Raptors are integrating more new players after their second big trade in the last month, this time moving on from a high-usage offensive player in Pascal Siakem.
The Grizzlies are decimated by injuries, especially to playmaker positions without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane or Marcus Smart.
The Raptors have new players trying to gel and learn one another's tendencies; the Grizzlies have players trying to assume outsized roles. Both situations can lead to sloppier basketball and extra compensatory defensive intensity.
I also like the Raptors ATS in this game, but I understand unders and favorites covering a medium-to-large spread work against one another..
Pick: Under 227
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Hornets vs. Timberwolves
By Joe Dellera
Anthony Edwards had a tough game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he gets a bounceback spot against the hapless Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have the third-worst defense in the NBA and are the league’s worst team in Adjusted Net Rating, per Dunks and Threes.
This is an excellent matchup for Edwards, who gets an opportunity to face off against LaMelo Ball, one of his fellow members from the 2020 NBA Draft class. Edwards’ points line is set at 26.5 — a number he has exceeded in 54% of games and 58% of home games, where he averages 27.8 points.
While there is blowout potential in this game, Edwards scoring the basketball would be a significant factor in that. With Edwards’ ability to score at every level against this porous Hornets defense, I like him to exceed 26.5 points tonight.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points
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Celtics vs. Mavericks
Before placing this bet, make sure to check the injury report for the Celtics on the second leg of a road back to back.
Horford and Holiday sat the Sunday game against Houston and should be expected to play, but does that mean either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown will sit?
Wait and see, but assuming they are a go as the current injury reports indicate, I really like the over here. This number should be closer to 241.5 or 242, as both teams play a lot of 5-out basketball and attempt 3-pointers at league-high frequency.
With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving expected to play, as long as Boston has their shooters, this game could fly over 250! It should be a fun one to watch.
Pick: Over 239.5
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