Monday's NBA slate features three more games of playoff action.
First, the Miami Heat look to tie their series with the Boston Celtics at 2-2 before shipping up to Boston for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference series.
Next, the Oklahoma City Thunder will try to complete a sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans, who are playing without the services of Zion Williamson.
And to close it all out, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers battle for their season when they take on Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the Mile High City.
Check out all six of our NBA best bets for Monday below — and be sure to come back tomorrow for even more NBA expert picks.
NBA Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. Heat
Under 203.5
Game 3 of Celtics vs. Heat finished with 188 points.
The Celtics defense stepped up with close-outs and on-ball pressure, dominating from start to finish. I expect the Heat to play zone and the Celtics to play aggressive man defense.
This is playable for one unit at 203 or better, and a half-unit if it drops to 202.5.
Pick: Under 203.5 (Play to 202.5)
Nikola Jovic Over 1.5 3s
Nikola Jovic has gone over this and over his points prop in every game this series.
He was honestly the Heat's best player in Game 3 — the stats won't show it, but he's progressing defensively, creating on offense and scoring at different levels.
The Heat are overmatched here — you usually are when you're missing your best and third-best player and your best shooter has a back issue. But Jovic is one of the team's lone bright spots, and he's getting more opportunities as the series progresses.
His minutes have gone from 26, 25 and 34. His points are up from 10 to 11 to 15. And his field goal attempts have increased overall from nine to five to 11. Plus, his 3s have also stayed relatively steady at six, four and five.
The minutes and chances are there, and the Heat — I'd project — will turn up the volume on 3-point attempts, which will help Jovic.
The Heat have attempted 37, 43 and 28 3s this series. They took too many midrange shots in Game 3, and they know it. I think they'll jack up closer to 40 again, and Jovic should take several of those.
Pick: Nikola Jovic Over 1.5 3s
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Thunder vs. Pelicans
Thunder -4
The Thunder are up 3-0 in this series and looking for the sweep.
Despite a close Game 1, the versatility and amazing coaching has led to Games 2 and 3 looking almost noncompetitive. I expect Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault to have his young team completely prepared.
They've heard doubters talk about their inexperience, and they're responding right now.
This line at -4 or higher qualifies for a "First Round Favorites" system play where we back the 1- or 2-seed in the first round of the NBA Playoffs with a spread of -4 or greater. Before this season it had a 60% hit rate with an 18% ROI — and those numbers improve as the first round progresses.
It's 5-4 this season — profitable again — and worth playing tonight.
Pick: Thunder -4
Pelicans Team Total Under 100.5
This is primarily a play on the full game under without the risk of another OKC explosion.
The Pelicans defense has been great, but it's been prone to lapses all season, as we saw in Game 2 earlier this week. By isolating the Pelicans' team total, we can just fade the New Orleans offense, which just isn't the same without Zion Williamson in the lineup.
They've posted an Offensive Rating of 100 or better in just one game — Game 2 when the total went over — against the Thunder. For the series, New Orleans has an Offensive Rating of 96, which is second-worst in the playoffs.
The playoff pace has also been very slow at just 92.7 possessions per game, and I think we see another sub-100 performance. It's an elimination game, so defense should be tight on both sides.
Pick: Pelicans Team Total Under 100.5
Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Thunder look to punch their ticket to the Western Conference semifinals tonight, while the Pelicans hope to force a Game 5 and return to Oklahoma City.
In Game 3, Jonas Valanciunas was removed from the rotation in the second half, and Chet Holmgren pulled down five rebounds with Larry Nance getting run at the 5-spot. In a win-or-go-home Game 5, I could see New Orleans continuing that, as its defense was more effective in the second half than the first.
Chet has not needed to play extended minutes in this series, but he has still recorded 11, seven and eight rebounds. When he’s played 28 minutes or more — the fewest he’s played in this series is 28 — he has averaged 8.4 rebounds per game, including 9.4 over his last 10.
In a game where the Thunder can send the Pelicans to Cancun, I like Holmgren to exceed 8.5 rebounds.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds
Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 Points
By Maltman
This could be Brandon Ingram's last game as a Pelican. It just doesn’t make sense for next season's team to put him in front of Trey Murphy.
Ingram has been shut down in this series, and opponents have denied him the ball as he's made a return from injury.
Other than the play-in win over Sacramento, which was ill-equipped to defend him, Ingram has gone under 20 points in seven of his last eight games.
He just isn’t healthy and isn’t at his best. I don’t think the shooting volume is there, and if it’s higher, his efficiency will go down as well.
I’m betting 0.3 units on Ingram to score under 21.5 points to -120. I'm also betting 0.2 units on Ingram's under and the Thunder ML at +180 (playing to +165) at BetMGM.
If lines move, I'd also bet Ingram under 20.5 for less juice. This line is just too high.
Pick: Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 Points (Play to 20.5)
