The first round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with a relatively quiet slate on Monday night, with only 2 matchups on the docket scheduled for today, as the Cavaliers will try to complete of sweep of the Heat in the early window, and then we'll wrap up the evening with a pivotal fourth matchup between the Rockets and Warriors.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified NBA picks for both of tonight's contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Monday, April 28.
NBA Best Bets for First Round Playoff Games: Monday, April 28
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Heat
The Heat are down 3-0 to the Cavaliers with their backs against the wall. However, I think the pricing here is a buy spot for the Miami side.
The spread for Game 3 closed at Cavaliers -5, as Darius Garland was a game day scratch. He is now questionable going into Game 4. However, this pricing puts him at 100% chance to play, and still I think it is too much.
The line has moved 3.5 points, which is more than Garland is worth, through the most important numbers, while Ty Jerome is also playing fantastic. I expect Garland to be a true 50-50 here, and the line can crash back to about -6.
The asymmetric risk favors the Heat, and +300 is also a great moneyline price correlated with an +8.5.
Pick: Heat +8.5 (-110) / Heat Moneyline (+290)
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Rockets vs. Warriors
By Joe Dellera
The Rockets are down 2-1 and look to even the series up Monday night before heading back to Houston.
One player who has played consistent minutes is Jabari Smith. He has played 25, 23, and 25 minutes so far and he’s recorded 17, 10, and 17 PR. I fully expect him to at least see this same floor, but with the team down 1-2, it’s possible Udoka swings the rotation a bit and more minutes open up.
Jabari is not great at creating his own shot, but he can certainly score when he’s in a mismatch. Given the Warriors general lack of size, this is something he gets the opportunity to do. This is a button Houston can press today.
The floor for Jabari is relatively high, but I think there is additional upside given the series score. When he’s played between 20-30 minutes, he’s hit this in 13 of his last 14 games. I’ll back Jabari on Monday night.
Pick: Jabari Smith Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
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Cavaliers vs. Heat
Davion Mitchell has gone over this line in all three games this series.
In Game 1, he had 18 points and nine assists. In Game 2, he had 18 points and six assists. And in Game 3, he had 16 points and five assists.
He's had 21+ in each game, and he hasn't played fewer than 34 minutes. In fact, I'd argue that it's likely he plays 40 or more if this game is close — he had 37 in a Game 3 blowout.
He's their most important two-way perimeter player, and he's also playing for a contract extension, which he should honestly receive as soon as this run is over, even if it can't be made official this soon.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 18.5 Points + Assists (+100)
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