There are two Game 6s tonight in The Association as the Pacers look to close out the series against the Bucks and the Knicks try to advance to the second round.
Here's NBA best bets and odds, including expert picks, player props and predictions for Thursday, May 2.
NBA Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. 76ers
Under 200.5
I talked about this play on the 'Buckets' podcast, and the cap is fairly simple. This is the second-slowest series of the playoffs and neither offense is running on all cylinders.
Of all 16 teams, the Sixers and Knicks rank 10th and 14th, respectively, in effective field goal percentage and neither defense causes many turnovers for fast breaks.
Mix in the fact that it's Game 6 (unders are 92-66 (58.2%) since 2005) and the short rest for both teams (especially Philadelphia and an injured Joel Embiid), and I think we're in store for a low-scoring game.
We've already seen a lot of movement towards the under in this game despite the low total. This initially popped at 202.5, but it's been bet down to 198.5 at the time of writing. It's at 200.5 at some books as of writing.
I don't see this getting much lower, so it might be worth waiting until tip-off to see if you can get some more runway on the under at a higher number.
Pick: Under 200.5
Joel Embiid Under 30.5 Points
With the way Joel Embiid looks, it's hard to see him having another big scoring performance if he's mostly shooting jumpers.
Embiid has gone over this mark twice in the series, but you can't list him lower than 30 because he has a 50-point game this season.
In the regular season, just 16.3% of his shots came from 3, but that's up to 31.5% in the playoffs.
The average distance of his shots in the regular season was 12.3 feet. In the playoffs? It's up to 15.3 feet, which would be by far the furthest of his career. By percentage, more of his shots have come from 3.
Additionally, his true shooting percentage is down from 64.4% to 58.2% (regular season to playoffs).
He's shooting 21.6 field goal attempts per contest, but he's only hitting 43.5%, and despite 6.8 3s per game, he's hitting only 2.2 a night (32.4%).
Again, this is all including a 50-point game.
He has one good leg and half of his face is in pain. I don't think this is a big scoring effort unless he gets hot from 3 and the mid-range.
The 50-point outing was also in a game that Mitchell Robinson left early and didn't return, logging just 11 minutes.
I think Embiid will get to 20 something, but 31 or more is a big ask given his condition.
Pick: Joel Embiid Under 30.5 Points
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks now look to close out the series in Philadelphia while the Sixers try to force a Game 7.
Speaking of forcing things, Embiid has played a ton of minutes during this series, especially considering that he just returned from knee surgery.
His usage has remained lofty overall, however, he's been looking to be more of a facilitator as the Knicks’ defensive schemes have become more and more nuanced.
One of the primary differences in the Knicks' game plan since the beginning of the series is putting Josh Hart on Tyrese Maxey. While that’s had questionable results, it's limited Embiid on the offensive side of the ball a bit.
The Knicks are able to use OG Anunoby as either Embiid’s primary defender or as a floater for help defense. The biggest thing is the Knicks aren't committing to the double team early; rather, they're waiting for the first bounce because Embiid was crushing them with great passes when he saw the double teams come.
Since the Knicks made this change, Embiid has had four and nine turnovers in Games 4 and 5, respectively.
Game 6s and 7s generally slow down, and become more of a half-court slugfest. As the defensive intensity locks down, I expect Embiid — who's instrumental to his team’s success — to make at least one mistake with the ball per quarter.
I’ll grab Embiid to exceed 3.5 turnovers, a number he’s cleared in 58% of games this season when playing 35+ minutes.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers
Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points
By Maltman
During the regular season, Donte DiVincenzo was a Knicks staple and Miles McBride was his backup, especially after Immanuel Quickley was traded away.
DiVincenzo averaged 15.5 points per game during the regular season while McBride averaged 8.3.
But the playoffs are a different animal, and McBride is the better fit for this matchup. The Knicks are +24.3 points per possession when he's on the floor during the playoffs. He's a better fit defensively on Maxey because he has better speed, and offensively, he can create a little more.
His play has been rewarded with an increase in minutes.
During the regular season, when McBride played 22+ minutes, he had double-digit points in 20-of-22 games. He's played 26+ minutes three times in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started. I think he'll play 28 minutes tonight.
With the increased playing time and great shooting, I think this is an easy over.
I'm betting .5u on McBride over 9.5 points at -102 on DraftKings, and I would bet it to -120.
