It's Friday, and it feels so good! We're back with a monster NBA slate and to celebrate, I'm cooking up a monster-progressive parlay based on our Action PRO projections, my own projections and killer trends. So, here's what we're going to do: We'll start with a same-game parlay built off our best PRO prop projections then find a full-game logic to back it up. From there, we'll progressively build it down to our top-four plays. We'll play each leg (with a few hedges) and then the monster four-game-multi-same-game-parlay. Let's. Get. Cooking.
NBA Parlay Best Bets
Zaccharie Risacher
Over 5+ Rebounds (+120)
Kings vs. Hawks
Under 237.5 (-110)
Risacher over is our best pro-tools prop of the night, projected at 6.9 boards:
The Hawks are banged up on the wing; Bogdan Bogdanovic, Vit Krejci and Deandre Hunter are all out. That's going to open up minutes and opportunities for Risacher who has six boards in two of the last three games.
More rebounds means more misses, and more misses means lower scoring. We have this projected right at the number at 238 in PRO tools making it a pass, but my projections put this at 231.6. And here's the sweetener: in the last three seasons Kings-Hawks is 6-0 to the under.
NBA Parlay Legs: Progressive Bets
Lakers vs. Raptors SGP (+158)
Lakers Moneyline (-410)
Gradey Dick
Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+114)
Dick is projected at 3.36 3-pointers made tonight via our pro projections. The Lakers are giving up the sixth-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions this season. Dick's gotten more comfortable as the season's gone on and is averaging 9.9 3-point attempts per 100 possessions.
Lakers ML is where I'm branching off from pro. Pro says Raptors are a B-grade on the moneyline Friday night, projecting it at +243 compared to +320. But I have this line at +619 compared to +320 best in the market. So I'm willing to throw Lakers ML in instead.
That said, if you bump this to Raptors ML, the SGP with Dick 3's goes to +675 if you want to get audacious.
Both Same-Game Parlays Together at DraftKings: +839
NBA Parlay Legs: Adding Thunder vs. Trail Blazers SGP (+272)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Blazers +11 (-110)
This seems counter-intuitive. Really? Shai's not going to hit 3's vs. this Blazers defense? Portland's giving up the 12th most-threes at the 10th-highest percentage this season and are awful at point of attack defense. I saw this prop projection and was ready to run the other way.
But then I saw this. When SGA faces a team under .500, he's under this 1.5 3-pointers-made line in 21 out of 34 games since the start of last season. That includes him going 4-0 to the under vs. Portland last season. It's so easy for him to drive… he does.
Portland +11 is another one that makes me ill. I make this Thunder -15 based on power rating. But our pro projections make this +7.8. And on top of that, I was shocked to find this trend: Oklahoma City is 4-11 ATS since the start of last season as a road dog against teams under .500. That includes 1-5 as a double-digit road favorite. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do it.
Full NBA Parlay Bet: All Three SGP Legs at +3285 (DraftKings)
Whew, that's a big number. Best of luck and enjoy the games!
