With football set to take center stage for the most part tonight, we have a relatively light 3-game slate scheduled in the Association this Thursday, but we're still back with our NBA best bets and picks for today's trio of matchups.
Our staff of basketball betting experts has locked in a total of six betting predictions for Thursday's matchups, including picks for all three matchups on the docket.
Let's dive into our NBA picks and predictions for Thursday night.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jazz vs. Bucks
This is the "bounce back" spot for Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 1-6, they are playing at home, and they are playing the Jazz tonight. The Jazz have the worst net rating in the NBA and are a bottom-eight (soon to be worse than that) defense. The Jazz are 1-6 and are not trying to win. They're dying for opposing teams to beat them.
Don't screw this up, Milwaukee.
They've gone over this prop only three times in seven games, but have now gone over in two straight, both against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are 9-0 (!) and are actively trying to win games.
Pick: Bucks First Half Team Total Over 58.5 (-120)
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Timberwolves vs. Bulls
By Joe Dellera
Rudy Gobert absolutely smokes Vucevic in their historical head-to-head matchups. Since 2019, Gobert has averaged 14.9 points and 16.6 rebounds in nine games against him. He has recorded a double-double in 8/9 games, with the only miss ringing in at 8 points.
This is a perfect head-to-head matchup coupled with a buy-low opportunity after he recorded just 3 and 8 rebounds against the Spurs and the Hornets.
The Bulls are playing at the fastest Pace in the league and are allowing the fifth-most rebounds per game to their opponent.
I’m backing Gobert in a bounce back spot and will play some alternate lines as well at 15+ Rebounds (+475, DK), 16+ Rebounds (+600, FD), and 20+ Rebounds (+1700, bet365)
Pick: Rudy Gobert Double Double (+100)
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Timberwolves vs. Bulls
The Bulls are on the second leg of a back to back with travel. Despite being the home team, they played Wednesday night in Dallas and lost to the Mavericks by 20.
The key for the Bulls this year has been pace. They are playing with the leagues fastest pace, likely because of the Giddey addition.
While they are playing fast, it is actually a boost to fade them ATS on some of these larger numbers, because the possession rate can be high enough for them also to get blown out.
The Wolves are gritty, rested, and taking clear steam. I am wanting to fade the Bulls at a number below -9.
Pick: Timberwolves -8.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
By Matt Moore
Our RotoGrinders player prop projections have this as the top play today at 63%.
I found it by looking specifically for players who score in the paint for the Spurs. The Blazers, of all teams, lead the league in fewest points in the paint allowed per NBA.com. Johnson is averaging 12.5 points per game and 7.5 of those are coming in the paint.
Portland's rebounding is bad; they're second-worst. But the rebounds give us a separation factor in case Johnson hits a few threes.
I'll also play a small hit on Johnson under and Blazers ML in a same game parlay, as I have the Spurs projected as only a 55% favorite (-122) on a back to back for San Antonio.
Pick: Keldon Johnson Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-118)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs selected Stephon Castle with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and life in the NBA is never quite easy for a rookie.
It often takes some time for these players to find their footing, and San Antonio’s Stephon Castle is no different. Through eight games, Castle is averaging 5.9 points in 20.6 minutes, shooting 30.4% from the floor and 14.3% from the perimeter. When you’re putting up numbers as poor as those, it can certainly affect a player’s confidence.
Castle played just one season in Connecticut, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Spurs adopt more of a cautious approach to bring him along slowly. His rebounds + assists prop is available at 5.5, yet he’s failed to exceed this number in five straight games.
Castle is in direct competition with small forward Keldon Johnson and guard Malaki Branham, who average at least nine points off the bench.
Given that Johnson and Branham are the same height, with Castle listed at 6-foot-5, they’re essentially better options as like-for-like replacements. Therefore, bettors should remain somewhat bearish on Castle’s props until further notice.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 5.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
If you haven't been watching the Blazers — understandable — you're missing the emergence of Toumani Camara, who by no means is amazing, but is a quality young forward and a potential building block in Portland.
No, he's not a guy you build around necessarily, but in a heightened role in his second season, the 2023 Second Round pick is averaging 9.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game on over 30 minutes per contest. Camara is hitting 48.1% on 3.4 three-point attempts per game and is the team's leader in win shares per 48 (.119) among anyone playing over 14 minutes per game.
He's also earning more trust from head coach Chauncey Billups. He's gone over 16.5 PRA in five of eight outings, including three straight entering this one.
Pick: Toumani Camara Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
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