NBA best bets and picks for Thursday, October 31 include picks for each of the four games scheduled for Halloween night.
Our staff has seven picks for four games, with at least one each on Bucks vs. Grizzlies, Rockets vs. Mavericks, Spurs vs. Jazz, and Suns vs. Clippers.
Here are our NBA best bets and expert picks for tonight's NBA slate.
NBA Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bucks vs. Grizzlies
By Eric Gaston
It's still early in the season, but the Bucks have to get going right. Ever since beating the 76ers in the season opener, they have lost three straight games to the Bulls, Nets, and Celtics.
Losing to the reigning champs is one thing, but the Bucks should be able to beat the Bulls and Nets. Again, it's early so no panicking yet, but the Bucks need to win this game tonight or its going to be an even scarier Halloween for the team.
Losing four straight games this early would definitely cause even more negative attention to the team. They're on the road in Memphis, but Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart both left in their game last night against the Nets due to injury, and may not play tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard should lead the way and leave Memphis with a win.
Pick: Bucks Moneyline
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Rockets vs. Mavericks
By Chris Baker
The Rockets have a day of rest edge and haven’t traveled out of the state of Texas once this season, so there's no travel fatigue or concerns for them.
Houston ranks 11th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating this season. That offensive rating is despite a rank of 27th in effective field goal percentage (48.9%), and the Rockets are shooting just 55.2% at the rim, 32.3% on mid-range looks, and 36.3% from three.
The rest of their process has been good as they rank third in offensive rebound rate (35.8%) and eighth in turnover rate (12.8%) on offense. If the shots start falling, this is a good team and I like this spot for that to start happening as the Mavs defense is currently very overrated.
That defense is being held together by very good center play by Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, but the perimeter defense has been awful. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson are elite offensive players but none of them project as plus defenders.
The Mavs are sixth in defensive rating but have played the Jazz, Spurs, Suns, and Wolves. We’ve seen them struggle defensively in both games where they played a real offense.
I like this spot for the Rockets' offense to finally show some life, and they have the defenders to stay in front of Doncic and run the Mavericks off of the 3-point line.
Pick: Rockets Moneyline
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Dereck Lively II has cleared this in three of four and got exactly 14 last time out.
The Dallas Mavericks center has a matchup in the Houston Rockets that will be a physical given that Alperen Sengun largely handles the interior. Steven Adams is questionable, which means we could see Jock Landale, too.
The bottom line is that Lively has picked up pretty much where he left off last season and is a double-double threat anytime he plays. As far as minutes, he's at 25.8 per game while off the bench for Daniel Gafford, who is a hair under 20. So he's typically the better bet in this regard, especially given that Gafford doesn't have the same statistical profile to this point.
Pick: Dereck Lively II Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds
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Spurs vs. Jazz
I first want to emphasize to wait on the injury report regarding Lauri Markkanen. He left the last game with back spasms, and has to be active for me to play the Jazz.
This line may move one point and that would still be OK below Jazz -4, but this is a brutal travel spot for a Spurs team that is a combination of very young and quite old.
Going into elevation on the second night of a back-to-back against a winless and hungry home team is a bad spot.
The Jazz with Markkanen would be a full unit play.
Pick: Jazz -2
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By Joe Dellera
Any Victor Wembanyama under is terrifying because of his ceiling; however, this is situationally a bad spot for him. It’s a road back-to-back in Utah after playing against Chet Holmgren and the Thunder last night.
When Wemby has played on zero days of rest, he’s been dramatically limited in his minutes. He has not exceeded 32 minutes and averaged just 26.8 minutes as a rookie in eight such instances. He saw significant drops in the primary counting stats besides assists, averaging just 17.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists.
He exceeded 35.5 PR just once in those eight games when he logged 37 PR against the Lakers.
Here, he lines up across from Walker Kessler, one of the better defensive bigs in the league. Although there has not been conversation about limiting his minutes in back-to-backs this season, he has only averaged 30.3 minutes per game so far. It wouldn’t shock me to see fewer minutes today.
While Wemby is always capable of blowing this number out of the water, I’m betting against him in this spot.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 35.5 Points + Rebounds
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Suns vs. Clippers
It's a bit early in the season to weigh rest spots too heavily, but the Suns are in a much better spot tonight against the Clippers. LA plays its fourth game in six nights, while the Suns haven't played since Monday.
The Clippers took the Suns to overtime in their first meeting on Oct. 23 with the Suns coming away with the win, but the Clippers surprised teams without Kawhi Leonard. Their first meeting likely got that out of the way and I expect Phoenix to capitalize on the rest advantage.
Bradley Beal is questionable, so wait on his status before betting this, but I'll like Phoenix even if he's ruled out given the bad spot for LA.
Pick: Suns -4.5
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Suns vs. Clippers
By Joe Dellera
Kevin Durant has been excellent to start the season and is averaging 29 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists so far. The scoring has stood out in particular with three consecutive 30-point performances after his 25-point opening night game against the Clippers.
One key is Durant has been more successful at generating contact and getting to the free throw line — he is averaging 8 FTA compared to just 5.6 last season.
Much of this is because his shot profile is slightly different. While he still is taking the majority of his shots from the mid-range, he’s move in a bit closer and is taking fewer long mid-range shots, which has led to even greater efficiency overall.
I don’t think the Clippers have a great defensive option to run against KD, and with the back-to-back, he should be able to take advantage of some tired legs.
I’ll grab KD to continue his hot start to the season and exceed 26.5 points.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 26.5 Points
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