After taking the night off on Tuesday, we're back with our NBA best bets and picks for a 12-game slate on Wednesday night.
Our focus tonight is on player props from Joe Dellera, who's focused on overs tonight on guys like Mikal Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Jarrett Allen, all of whom have elite matchups tonight that should leave to big games.
Let's dive into our NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday night.
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Knicks vs. Hawks
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks face off against the Hawks on Wednesday, and I’m targeting Mikel Bridges to have a strong showing.
It’s obviously a different scenario now with Bridges on the Knicks, but he has torched the Hawks and averaged 27.9 points per game against them in nine games since 2021.
Besides the prior history, he is averaging 17.2 points per game with the Knicks and he has gone over in both games against teams that play top 10 Pace (Pacers and Cavs). Even in the games he did not exceed this 16.5 line, his floor is 15 points.
This is a clear Pace spot with the Hawks playing at the second-fastest Pace in the NBA and the 26th in Adjusted Defense, per Dunks and Threes. Couple this with them getting burned from 3-point range and Bridges shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc and there are a multitude of ways for Bridges to perform well.
I’ll back Bridges to exceed 16.5 points.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 16.5 Points (-110)
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Magic vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
The Magic take on the Pacers as they adjust to life without Paolo Banchero for the time being.
One player that sees a significant bump is Jalen Suggs. Over the last two seasons without Paolo, Suggs sees a six-point increase in scoring per 100 possessions, per pbpstats.
Suggs’ rebound floor has been so high this season, averaging 5.4 rebounds to complement 17.6 points per game and 4.4 assists.
This is not a matchup I want to target for assists though given the Pacers’ defensive scheme, but this is a good matchup for him.
In Banchero's 50-point game last week against the Pacers, Suggs still scored 25 points (30 points and rebounds). Last season, he had 21 points and rebounds in just 17.6 minutes in this matchup.
Suggs is able to get to his own shots while crashing the glass, and I expect him to continue seeing an expanded role without Banchero in a strong matchup against a Pacers team that will be missing Aaron Nesmith.
Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-113)
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Hornets vs. Pistons
By Joe Dellera
Ball could very well go over this line with just points, but this is a great spot for his assists to bounce back, as well.
Ball saw his assists decline after three games against the Celtics (twice) and the Timberwolves, two of the best defensive teams in the league that also play at below average Paces. The Wolves allow the second-fewest assists to their opponents and the Celtics allow the fourth-fewest.
Here, he gets a matchup against the Pistons who allow the 10th-most assists and have the 19th ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating.
Ball has exceeded this line in 71% of games this season and is averaging 34.3 points and assists. Tonight, I have him at about 27.5 points and 6.5 assists but think there’s some additional upside in the assists department due to the matchup.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-125)
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Cavaliers vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
The Cavaliers take on a Pelicans team that's thin in the frontcourt and has Zion Williamson listed as questionable.
Although they have rookie Yves Missi and Daniel Thies, this is a general lack of depth at center. With that lack of size, centers have continued to smash against them including both Deandre Ayton and NikolaVucevic.
Allen has a 75% hit rate on this 26.5 line this season, and he's averaging 15.0 points per game and 11.6 rebounds per game.
The Pelicans are the worst team in the league in rim frequency allowed and are 22nd in allowed eFG% at the rim. They're getting destroyed on the interior.
Given Allen’s ability to rack up boards and convert on looks at the rim, this is an elite matchup against the Pelicans’ current personnel. I’ll grab Allen to exceed 26.5 points and rebounds.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)
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Bulls vs. Mavericks
By Joe Dellera
The Mavericks take on the Bulls, and I’m targeting a matchup on the interior.
I think this is a good spot for Daniel Gafford who lines up opposite Nikola Vucevic. When these teams last played, both Gafford and Dereck Lively went off for 20 and 22 points.
Tonight, Lively is listed as questionable, and it’s possible he does not play at all or is limited. I have this line as fair if Lively is in but a great value if he's out.
The Bulls are playing at the fastest-Pace in the NBA and are allowing the sixth-highest rim rate and the second-highest Rim Shooting Efficiency (70.6%), per Dunks and Threes.
I’ll back Gafford to exceed 10.5 points.
Pick: Daniel Gafford Over 10.5 Points (+100)
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