We have a relatively light 5-game slate scheduled in the NBA this Saturday, as once again, college football takes center stage for the most part of the sports calendar today, capped off by what's expected to be an excellent fight night. However, our staff of NBA betting experts still came through with 5 picks and predictions for tonight's docket, including selections for Bucks vs. Hornets, Jazz vs. Kings, and Spurs vs. Mavericks!
Let's get into our NBA best bets for Saturday, November 16.
NBA Best Bets, Picks for Saturday, November 16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bucks vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
Giannis continues to be the engine for this Bucks offense without Damian Lillard, and he has now had seven assists in both games he missed this season.
Now, he gets a matchup against the Hornets, who are 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rating. Giannis saw a slight dip in his potentials last game. However, he also scored 59 points, so there is some give-and-take there.
The primary takeaway though, is the fact that Giannis has seen a sharp uptick in his assist rate without Lillard and over the last two seasons without Lillard he has now exceeded 6.5 dimes in 8/10 games.
This line is a touch low and I’ll grab him to go over 6.5 assists.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 Assists (-115)
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Bucks vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
Brandon Miller has been a bit up-and-down in terms of his production this season and is coming off a down-game against a brutally tough Orlando Magic team where he scored just 8 points. Prior to that game he had ripped off three straight games of strong scoring with 22, 29, and 19. This matchup sets up well for him against the Bucks, who have struggled to defend from the perimeter and midrange.
One wrinkle though, is the Hornets upgraded Miles Bridges to Questionable for Saturday’s game, which was a bit of a surprise considering he was expected to miss another week. Given that, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a minutes limit or some sort of restriction for him today.
While the Bucks have added some stronger perimeter defenders without Dame, I expect them to be deployed on LaMelo more so than Brandon Miller. I like Miller to exceed 17.5 points and have him projected closer to 20.
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 17.5 Points (-115)
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Spurs vs. Mavericks
After a 6-7 start, the Spurs are already showing that they’ll be in contention, at least for a spot in the play-in tournament. The additions of veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes have helped to improve their Net Rating from -6.4 in the previous campaign to -0.4 this season.
This team has a nice mix of youth and experience, capable of offering more depth around its star player, Victor Wembanyama. But with Wembanyama getting the bulk of the touches, players like Barnes must find other ways to contribute and be effective.
Although Barnes’ scoring average is down from 12.2 to 9.6 due to fewer shots (8.9 to 6.5), he has been more active on the glass.
Last season, he averaged 3.07 rebounds with a median of 3.0. Through 13 games, his average is up to 3.92, with a median of 4.0. His rebounding prop is available at 3.5, but in his last 10 games against defenses ranked in the bottom-third for rebounds, his average jumps to 5.4 with a median of 5.5.
The Mavericks are an opponent that falls into that bottom-third category, as Barnes has also gone over 3.5 rebounds in his last five meetings against Dallas. With the Spurs visiting Dallas on Saturday night, we should be in a good spot for this trend to continue.
Pick: Harrison Barnes Over 3.5 Rebounds (-115)
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Spurs vs. Mavericks
By Joe Dellera
The Mavericks take on the Spurs tonight in a game I project to go over the total.
One player that should excel is Luka Doncic, as the Mavericks try to avoid a 5-game losing streak. Luka is averaging 29.3 points per game and has hit this in 50% of games this season.
Although the Spurs have defended decently in the halfcourt, the Mavericks should be able to get out and run in transition given it’s their fourth game in six days. The Mavericks are 10-point favorites, and in the last 30 games when the Mavs have won by 10+ points, Luka is averaging 32.5 points per game.
This is a Mavericks spot, so I expect Luka to score at will against a tired Spurs defense tonight.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 29.5 Points (-105)
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Jazz vs. Kings
By Joe Dellera
John Collins has led the Utah offensive attack the last few games without Walker Kessler, who will miss Saturday’s game as well. Now, they get the Kings, who lost in overtime to the Timberwolves, despite a 60 point performance by De’Aaron Fox.
The Kings have been middling defensively this season and continue to allow looks from beyond the arc, a shot that Collins is no stranger to. Collins has now taken 19 and 20 shots in these two games without Kessler, including going 3/6 and 1/3 from beyond the arc. That type of volume is difficult to ignore.
Considering he’s scored 29 and 28 points the last two games without Kessler, and the Jazz may want to showcase him for a potential trade, I’ll bite once again at a number that’s a bit too low given the recent performance.
Pick: John Collins Over 15.5 Points (-130)
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