The NBA is back in full swing with a jam packed 15-game slate on Monday night, so our staff of basketball betting experts came through with a grand total of 13 bets for today's docket of matchups, including 3 picks against the spread, 3 total predictions, and 7 player props.
Continue below for our NBA best bets and our NBA picks for Sunday, November 3.
NBA Best Bets for Monday, November 4
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Warriors vs. Wizards Prop Pick
Bilal Coulibaly has gone over in four of five games this year, including four straight, where he hasn't scored lower than 17 and has eclipsed 20 or more on three occasions.
He looks like he's making a leap, plus, the Wizards are without Kyle Kuzma — the team leader in usage at 29.3 percent — and they are heavily incentivized to see how much their 2023 No. 7 overall pick has to offer.
This season, he's offering shooting splits of 61/48/79 (with rounding), so they'll take it.
Pick: Bilal Coulibaly Over 14.5 Points (-120)
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Lakers vs. Pistons Prediction
By Eric Gaston
The Lakers have had some time to refresh since winning their last game on the road against the Toronto Raptors last Friday, where they dominated that matchup, even though the Raptors managed to make comeback, but it was a bit too late.
Now they are facing a Detroit Pistons team that was on the road yesterday in Brooklyn, where they beat the Nets with a final score of 106-92. It was one of those games where all the starters contributed and scored in double-figures.
Going up against the Lakers will be a far more difficult challenge. The Lakers have played well to start the season, with their only major loss being against the Cleveland Cavaliers. And right now, nobody has an answer for Anthony Davis.
Davis is on a tear right now, averaging 31.8 points and 12.2 rebounds. He's on another level offensively right now, and should be able to have another great night going up against a young Pistons team. This should be a game where the Lakers hit hard and have their way.
Pick: Lakers -7 (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Nets Prop
By Joe Dellera
Ja Morant missed this line in his last game against Brooklyn, but it’s still a bit too low. He had more than enough volume in that contest with 16 FGAs, but shot just 31% from the field.
Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart remain out. Over his last 10 games without Bane, he is averaging 26.7 points per game.
Brooklyn has one of the league’s worst defenses, and I fully expect Memphis to speed them up and attack in transition.
I’m grabbing Morant to exceed 21.5 points, and I’ll sprinkle on 30+ at +550.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 21.5 Points (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Nets Prediction
Losing to the Nets on their home floor last week was a wake-up call for the Memphis Grizzlies, who rattled off convincing back-to-back wins.
Sure, the competition was not superb, as they hosted the floundering Bucks at home and traveled to Philadelphia to face the Embiid and PG-less Sixers.
However, they dominated those games and left little doubt, despite being without Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and a few other solid rotational pieces.
In their past two games, Memphis has the second-best net rating (+18.0), highest total rebounding percentage (59.8%), highest true shooting percentage, and has held opponents to the fourth-lowest field goal percentage (41.6%).
This output much more closely resembles what we have come to expect from the Grizzlies. And they will undoubtedly be out for revenge in this one.
Pick: Grizzlies -5 (-110)
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Kings vs. Heat Prop
By Joe Dellera
The Kings face off against the Miami Heat and this is a matchup that Keegan Murray has thrived in. He has played four games against Miami in his career and has scored 22, 7, 33, and 28 points. He has dominated this matchup.
Much of this has to do with the way Miami plays defense and allows their opponents to get up a ton of 3-pointers, especially from the corner where they have the fourth-highest frequency allowed, per Cleaning the Glass.
Murray has seen a spike in his 3-point shooting this season, particularly from the corner where he is shooting 40% this season.
I prefer the points to the 3-pointers prop here though, because he has also seen a spike in his rebounding, which can lead to a couple extra second chance opportunities against a Miami team that is in the bottom-third in rebounding percentage.
Murray has hit this in 5/6 games, and I expect him to make it 6/7 tonight.
Pick: Keegan Murray Over 13.5 Points (-130)
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Jazz vs. Bulls Picks
By Chris Baker
I’ve been backing many Bulls games to go over, as this defense is very weak, and this team has skyrocketed their pace. So, I like this spot for their offense. They rank #1 in pace, averaging 107 possessions per game, which is three more than the 2nd place Wizards. Their offense ranks just 26th in offensive rating, but they’ve played the 4th most difficult schedule of opposing defenses thus far.
The only two games they’ve had go under the full game total were against OKC and ORL, literally the #1 and #2 ranked defenses in adjusted defensive rating. Utah is 30th in adjusted defensive rating, and they don’t really do a great job of taking away the three ball or transition. They rank dead-last in transition rate allowed and 25th in transition efficiency, and they rank #1 best in rim-rate.
The Bulls offense ranks 4th in both transition rate and three point attempt rate. Patrick Williams is questionable, and if he was ruled out, it would be a huge boon for the over as the Bulls best all-around defender.
Additionally, Lauri Markannen is questionable with a back issue, but I have a feeling he may try to suit up to play against the team that drafted him. That would be massive as this Jazz offense has been +27.2 points better with him on the floor this season.
Even if Markannen sits, we are still looking at an inexperienced Jazz team going up against a fast-paced Bulls offense that matches up well with this Jazz defense. I’d play this up to 230.
Pick: Over 228 (-110)
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Knicks vs. Rockets Prediction
The Knicks new offensive identity is a bad matchup for Houston's defense. They don't shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but New York makes them at the highest clip of any team so far this season (42 percent), while the Rockets give up the fifth-highest percent (38.7) per Cleaning the Glass.
Meanwhile, the Rockets are seventh in rim rate (36.2 percent), and since replacing Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein with Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks have give up the third-highest field goal percentage at the rim (74.7 percent).
Outside of individual matchup, the Knicks have the third best offense in the NBA, while the Rockets are 10th. I think we see points in this game, and I'd take the over up to 223.
Pick: Over 217.5 (-110)
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Knicks vs. Rockets Pick
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks head to Houston to take on the Rockets, and I think they can win on the road here.
The Knicks have bounced back after a tough start against the Celtics, and have the fourth-best Adjusted Net Rating (+4.4) compared to the Rockets at 10th-best (+2.0), per Dunks and Threes.
While the metrics align, this is a good stylistic matchup for the Knicks. The Rockets have depended on a rise from Jalen Green this season along with meaningful contributions from Alperen Sengun. However, the Knicks have some of the best options to defend Green with Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby.
As for Sengun? He is going to get torched in the 1-5 pick-and-roll with Brunson and KAT. And KAT has had success in these matchups averaging 23.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in five contests against Sengun.
The Knicks have significant edges at the individual matchups, and I’m going to lay the points with the road favorite.
Pick: Knicks -2 (-110)
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Knicks vs. Rockets Prop
By Eric Gaston
Ever since losing last week to the Cavaliers, where Karl-Anthony Towns only attempted eight shots, the Knicks have made more of an emphasis to make sure Towns puts up more shots, and it has been working for their benefit.
He scored 44 points last Wednesday on the road against the Heat, where he shot 17/25 from the field and 4/5 from 3-point range. In the following game against the Pistons, the Knicks had the game in the first quarter, as it was already a blowout by that point, but Towns still managed to drop 21 points and shot 8/18 from the field.
On the road tonight in Houston, the Rockets are a team that's capable of getting hot on offense, and it will be a showdown between Towns and Alperen Sengun. The Knicks have had success when Towns is being aggressive, as he will need to be if the team wants to go far this season.
It shouldn't be any different tonight, as the Knicks have won each of their games with Towns scoring 20+ points. He's been in the zone the past two games, and I believe he continues his hot stretch.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ Points (+120)
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Hornets vs. Timberwolves Prop Pick
Mark Williams is still injured and now Nick Richards is out.
Now, Rudy Gobert is questionable, so there's a caveat. But if he plays, I don't know who is stopping him on the glass. Grant Williams?
The Hornets, without Richards, aren't starting anyone averaging even a full seven rebounds per game. It's just a matchup Gobert takes advantage of (you would think), if he's in the lineup.
Gobert has gone over this line in three of six outings this season. But this time, he's not facing a legitimate center.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (-135)
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Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Prop
By Joe Dellera
Yves Missi has been great this season for the Pelicans with his biggest contributions coming on the defensive side of the ball. This is a bit of a buy-low opportunity, as he’s recorded just one block in back to back games, but this matchup against the Blazers is elite.
The Blazers are blocked the third-most per game this season, and Missi already swatted two shots away about a week ago against this same Blazers team. He has now played 25+ mins in back to back games (one with and one without Zion) and I think we will see that again tonight.
Pick: Yves Missi Over 1.5 Blocks (-106)
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Pacers vs. Mavericks Team Total Pick
By Chris Baker
The Pacers are riddled with injuries to their best defensive players, as Andrew Nesmith has already been ruled out tonight, while Nembhard is questionable but missed the last two games. Solid backup center Isaiah Jackson also tore his achilles last game, so now they are down arguably their three most impactful defenders.
With both Jackson and James Wiseman out, we should see a lot of small-ball lineups when Myles Turner leaves the floor. That is bad in general for defense, but it is especially bad when you are facing this pick-and-roll heavy scheme with Luka and Gafford and Lively heading downhill towards the rim for the entire game.
With Nesmith out and Nembhard likely out or at least limited, Indy has no one that can keep Luka out of the paint and once Doncic reaches the paint your defense is usually cooked. This Indy defense ranks 22nd in raw defensive rating, but when you adjust for schedule strength, that drops them down to 24th according to dunksandthrees.com.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks offense has played the 6th most difficult schedule of opposing defenses and rises from 14th in raw offensive rating to 7th in adjusted offensive rating, when you factor that in.
With Nembhard and Nesmith off the floor, the Pacers are allowing an awful 123.7 points per 100 possessions this season. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue on a back to back here, as the Mavericks blew out the Magic last night and rested their starters for the entire 4th quarter.
Pick: Mavericks Team Total Over 120.5 (-108)
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Raptors vs. Nuggets Prop Prediction
By Joe Dellera
Jokic and the Nuggets host the Raptors tonight, who pushed them to overtime last week, and I’m looking at the big man to control the glass in today's rematch.
Jokic had just 10 rebounds, but on 23 chances in that game, and he has averaged 12.3 on 22.8 chances per game this season. Additionally, when Murray has not played over the last three seasons, he sees a jump from 12 to 12.5 rebounds per game.
The Raptors play at the fifth-fastest Pace in the league, and should continue looking to run and gun. I’ll grab Jokic to exceed 11.5 rebounds.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125)
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