We have another Game 4 in the NBA tonight with one side looking to punch its ticket to the Finals and the other hoping to avoid a sweep.
The Dallas Mavericks own a 3-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves and now have to defend their home floor one more time for the right to face the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals.
The Mavs enter as a 2-point favorite in Dallas with the over/under hovering around 210.5. So, where does the betting value lie in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals?
Let's dive into our staff's five NBA best bets for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game 4 on Tuesday, May 28.
NBA Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves +2
The Wolves are facing elimination after three straight losses to the Mavericks.
Dereck Lively II has been instrumental in Dallas’ success in this series as a release valve when the Wolves throw double-teams at Luka Doncic.
But Lively has officially been ruled out as a result of a neck injury he sustained in Game 3, and Maxi Kleber is still questionable with a shoulder injury that’s kept him out since the first round.
Even if Kleber plays, that’s still a downgrade from the minutes Lively’s given the Mavs. I think the Wolves can keep this close with their backs against the walls on the road, where they’re 5-2 these playoffs.
If this spread moves to +1.5, take the moneyline at plus-money.
Pick: Timberwolves +2
Over 210
The Mavericks will be without Dereck Lively II, who's a key defensive presence for them. His absence leaves the Mavericks' rotation thin, especially if Maxi Kleber is ruled out again.
We know the Mavs can score, but the issue has been the Wolves offense going cold for stretches.
However, there have already been holes in the Dallas defense recently. The Mavs own a defensive rating of 113.8 in the last five games, and the Wolves will only have more of an advantage with Lively out.
Kleber is a worse offensive rebounder than Lively, so the Wolves should see some more second-chance opportunities.
We’ve seen points already in this matchup with each game going over the total and all three clearing 210. I like the over to 211.5.
Pick: Over 210 (Play to 211.5)
Over 210
The totals for this series have been priced around 208.5 every game, and the over has hit in all three.
Now, with Dereck Lively II out and Maxi Kleber upgraded to questionable, the Mavericks lose some interior defense and gain floor spacing.
Those elements should correlate to a faster-paced game and even more of an over play.
The slight concern is how efficient Lively has been on offense. He has shot 13-of-13 from the field this series. Look for Daniel Gafford to finish lobs and Kleber to space the floor in his absence.
Pick: Over 210
Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points
Why not?
Luka Doncic is the best player in the series. He's gone over this in three straight, and the only reason he's down at 30.5 is because the books are expecting some sort of regression because the Timberwolves are apparently too good to be swept.
Why? What have the Wolves done to ensure that they're going to win Game 4? We thought they'd win Game 2 and Game 3. Some thought they'd win Game 1, too.
Anthony Edwards is a baby in NBA terms, Karl-Anthony Towns is who we thought he was, and Rudy Gobert is whatever you want him to be.
Edwards needs to get his ass kicked before eventually taking over the league, and the first part of that sentence is already happening. Those other two dudes… I'll let y'all speak for them.
Anyway, the Wolves can't stop Doncic — not Jaden McDaniels or anybody else. He's the second-best player in the world and is playing like it in this series. If I'm going to take an over on anyone and be good with the result, it's Doncic.
And his efficiency isn't even ridiculous. He has shot 12-for-26, 10-for-23 and 10-for-20 in three games this series. I'm riding this one until I can't.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
Luka Doncic has been tremendous during this series and now will have to pick up even more slack with the injury to Dereck Lively II (neck).
Without Lively, we should see more minutes where Luka is looked at as the Mavericks’ best rebounder — especially if Daniel Gafford isn't on the floor.
With Lively off the floor but Gafford on, Doncic has averaged 10.4 rebounds per game with nine or more in seven of his eight games. This is likely because we see more time in which Dallas either goes small or gets some minutes from Dwight Powell or Maxi Kleber (questionable, shoulder), neither of whom are great rebounders.
While Doncic has averaged only 7.7 rebounds on 11.7 chances this series, the absence of Lively is a significant intervening factor. Couple the history with the fact that he has played 40-plus minutes in all three games this series, and there's room for Luka to grab nine or more rebounds.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds
