NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Christmas Day
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The NBA season continues on Christmas Day with five games to celebrate the holiday. Our Action Network NBA betting experts are ready with their best bets for all five games, including spread picks, over/under bets, player props and more.
Below, find their NBA Christmas best bets and expert picks for Christmas Day!
76ers vs. Heat
By Matt Moore
With Embiid out and the line moved to Heat -3, obviously, I don't think there's value on the Sixers here; this number is about right with Embiid out. But I do still like the over. The over is 20-13 (61%) when Embiid doesn't play in the regular season since 2021-22. The Sixers lose rim protection and the team plays faster. So I like the over more with Embiid now on the shelf.
Pick: Under 226.5
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76ers vs. Heat
Joel Embiid will miss the game with an ankle injury he sustained in Philadelphia’s most recent game against the Raptors. That means the other 76ers players will have to step up in his absence.
Tyrese Maxey is the obvious candidate to take on a bulk of the scoring without Embiid, but he’ll need help from some of the role players, too. Of the players that have logged more than 500 minutes with Embiid this season, Maxey sees the biggest usage spike (+12.2), but following right behind him is De’Anthony Melton (+9.8). Melton gets more looks, but Embiid is crucial to him getting quality looks. He sees a 4% decrease in both Effective Field Goal Percentage and Shot Quality, per pbpstats.com.
Melton isn’t able to get his own shot as easily and that’s led to an increase in Turnovers Per 100 Possessions (+3.1), and Miami in particular is a team that can apply pressure (they’re sixth in Turnover Rate per Cleaning the Glass). Melton's turnover line is 1.5 at +130, which he’s cleared in 12 of 16 games without Embiid since becoming a 76er. Take this to 2.5 at even money.
Pick: De'Anthony Melton Over 1.5 Turnovers
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76ers vs. Heat
When Joel Embiid is active and facing the Miami Heat, Bam Adebayo's value generally is on defense. He's hard to bet on offensively in that situation for obvious reasons, but the Heat also generally play a more perimeter-oriented game.
Against Paul Reed, with Embiid out? Expect the same stout defense, but with more offense. We saw this in their 2022 playoff series, and we've seen this against other centers who don't dwarf Adebayo in size.
I thought Miami would win this game with Embiid, but without, I'm taking the -2.5. And I'm adding Bam over 20.5 points just because his points props at 22.5 is tougher to buy on with Tyler Herro back (and Jimmy Butler might care Monday). But I think Adebayo will be emphasized — and aggressive enough — to get 20.
Pick: Parlay: Bam Adebayo 20+ Points + Heat -2.5 (+150)
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Mavericks vs. Suns
By Matt Moore
Dereck Lively is back for the Mavericks (per Marc Stein) in this one, and that's all I need to get the value on Dallas. Based on full-season numbers, I make this Mavericks -4.25, and Kyrie Irving cannot account for that differential.
The Suns are desperate, so it's a good spot for them, but a spread of more than one possession is too much for the Mavericks with Lively back. Dallas is 14-9 ATS with Lively in the lineup, 1-5 without him.
Pick: Mavericks +4
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Bucks vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks play the Bucks in a rematch from Saturday afternoon. One player that has dominated against the Milwaukee this season is Jalen Brunson.
Brunson has scored 45, 24 and 36 points in these head-to-head matchups and the one game at 24 he was 0-for-5 from 3 but got to the rim with ease. He is perfectly constructed to eviscerate the Bucks' drop defense. He's capable of blowing past their guards on the perimeter and floating up or getting through Brook Lopez and Giannis on the interior.
The Bucks have been extremely vulnerable to lead guards allowing monster performances to Brunson, Haliburton, Poole, Trae, and Kyrie, LaMelo, and Luka. Additionally, they have given up more than 21 points per game to Pick and Roll Ball Handlers, per Second-Spectrum. A maestro of the offense, Brunson should continue his success against Milwaukee on Christmas.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points
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Bucks vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks continue to allow their opponents to get great looks from 3-point range, especially from the corner where their opponents shoot 44.1% (38% from 3 overall), per Cleaning the Glass. There's one Bucks role player perfectly suited to exploit that.
Malik Beasley is a sniper from long range. He is taking 70% of his shots from 3-point range and 29% from the corner while burying an absurd 46% of those looks and an even better 56% from the corner. While he made zero 3s against the Knicks in their first matchup this season, he buried six on Dec. 5 and five on Saturday.
He did this on volume. He made 6-of-10 and 5-of-9 in these spots. This line should have more juice considering his points line is at 10.5 and he is taking 79% of his shots from 3-point range in this sample. I'll play 4+ (+230 FD) and 5+ (+650 FD) as well.
Pick: Malik Beasley Over 2.5 3-Pointers
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Warriors vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
One of the primary concerns for the Warriors here is the lack of Draymond Green. While he has had a negative Net Rating this season, his absence severely impacts the Warriors' ability to defend the Murray-Jokić pick and roll. Kevon Looney is too slow to defend it, and Dario Šarić is not strong enough down low.
That weak spot coupled with the fact that Denver has been dominant at home makes me comfortable enough to lay the points even against a Curry-led team.
Pick: Nuggets -7
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Warriors vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
Murray has averaged 29.5 points against the Warriors in two games over the last two seasons. Lead Guards have torched the Warriors this season – Jordan Poole dropped 25 the other day, De'Aaron Fox has averaged 34, SGA 34.0, Devin Booker 29.7, and Anthony Edwards 26.5, to name a few. Murray should find more success in this matchup.
Couple this with the absence of Draymond Green and this sets up even more perfectly for Murray. Green is one of the best pick-and-roll defenders in the league, so even though he has had a negative Net Rating this season, his absence severely impacts the Warriors' ability to defend the Murray-Jokic pick and roll. This pressure point should severely strain the Warriors' defense. Kevon Looney is too slow to defend it, and Dario Saric is not strong enough.
Jokic and Murray should cook in this matchup.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points
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Celtics vs. Lakers
By Matt Moore
It's Lakers or nothing on the side, but I just can't get there on this number. Multiple possessions on the spread, and I'd be on the Lakers. I have a huge projection edge on this game based on the Lakers' homecourt advantage, but this game is already being directionally set toward L.A.
If you're going to bet the Lakers, bet the moneyline; Boston is still really rough in clutch-time situations. This total is down a full five points from the open, and that's annoying, but it's still the right side, and I think there's value on this under to this number and no further.
Pick: Under 234.5
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Celtics vs. Lakers
By Chris Baker
The Celtics have been scorching hot offensively, and I want to continue to back their offense as I think it is truly generationally good. I am a big believer in the power of the 3-ball, and the Celtics rank first in offensive 3-point attempt rate (44.4%) on the year. Some teams are making an effort to get up more 3s but have poor or sub-par shooters taking these shots. The Celtics are loaded with legitimate shooters, and when you look through their rotation, there is basically no one I don’t trust to take an open look.
The Lakers defense has been solid, ranking ninth in adjusted defensive rating, but they’ve played the sixth easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season. I think a lot of the Lakers' defensive success is predicated on Anthony Davis’s generational rim-protection but this impact will be muted against a Celtics team that ranks 27th in offensive rim rate. The Lakers defense ranks 22nd in 3-point attempt rate allowed, so it’s not like they do a great job of running teams off the line defensively. This is also a pace-up spot where we may see more possessions as the Lakers are eighth in pace.
I just love the way this Celtics offense looks right now, and they haven’t even played an easy schedule as they rank second in schedule strength and have played the fifth most difficult schedule of opposing defenses. Back the Celtics to clear this number in LA on Christmas Day.
Pick: Celtics Team Total Over 118.5
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