NBA Best Bets | Friday, Dec. 15
We've got a jam packed eight-game slate in the NBA tonight, and in the table below, you'll find each of our staff member's NBA Best Bets for Friday, December 15 including expert picks for Pacers vs. Wizards, Lakers vs. Spurs, Rockets vs. Grizzlies and Knicks vs. Suns.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pacers vs. Wizards
If the Pacers don't light up the Washington Wizards, then I don't know what to tell you.
The Pacers and Wizards could legitimately go for a combined 300 points and I wouldn't be surprised.
The Wizards have given up 146 and 142 points in consecutive efforts to the Philadelphia 76ers and New Orleans Pelicans, respectively, and have allowed teams to reach 132 or more against them in three of their last four home games, and the only under was 131 against Philly last week.
And as we've talked about all year, the Pacers lead the league in points and pace and blah blah blah.
You have one pretty good team that doesn't care about defense, and another pretty bad team that doesn't care about defense. It's about literally the NBA's best offense vs. the NBA's worst defense. Overs are expected. If this is a low scoring game, I won't know what to do with myself.
Pick: Pacers TT Over 231.5 (-120)
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Lakers vs. Spurs
By Joe Dellera
This is a rematch from Wednesday night and I see no reason not to expect a strong performance from Victor Wembanyama again – at least on the defensive side of the ball.
Wemby has been tremendous since shifting to the five spot and he has had plenty of opportunities to block shots as the primary rim protector. In his last game against the Lakers he had an absurd 6 blocked shots. This makes sense because the Lakers primary source of scoring is attacking the rim, a zone they take 37.6% of their shots from, the second-highest mark in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
This will give Victor the opportunity to block some extra shots in what should be a fun game on Friday night. Furthermore, he has exceeded this line in seven of his last 10 games and has averaged 3.9 over this stretch.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 Blocks (-140)
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Lakers vs. Spurs
By Jim Turvey
There's a very fine line between "If at first you don't succeed, try again" and "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results."
Well, here we are running back the Spurs team total under. It was my favorite bet from Wednesday, and in the exact same matchup (with the exact same line movement), I'm trying again, despite taking the L on Wednesday.
Here's why.
Basically all of the logical scaffolding from the first time around remains. The Lakers have now held their opponents to under this number in 10 of 16 instead of 15 and the Spurs have gone under this total in 13 of 17 instead of 16. The Laker defense remains the second-best over the past two weeks, while the Spurs offense remains dead last.
And boy was that beat on Wednesday a doozy. The Spurs scored 26 in the first quarter, followed by 24 in each of the second and third quarters. They were tracking for just under 100 points before they exploded for 45 points in the final frame, shooting 67% from the field and seven of 11 from deep.
Now, the pace of this game was indeed lofty, which is likely why the total is trending up again, so feel free to wait this out again, but I'd play this to under 112.5… at least for one more time.
Pick: Spurs TT Under 114.5 (-115)
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Rockets vs. Grizzlies
By Joe Dellera
Jabari Smith had a couple rough games in a row but bounced back against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night and now sees the same matchup. Jabari presents a number of specific difficulties for the Grizzlies including his size and ability to stretch the floor with the 3-point shot – this sets up for a tougher game for Alperen Sengun along with a usage uptick for Jabari.
In six matchups against the Grizzlies, Jabari has exceed this in four games, but most importantly, they are the four most recent considering he struggled out of the gate in his rookie season. In each of the overs he made two-plus 3s, and while over 1.5 3s is a look, I prefer to remove a bit of the shooting variance considering he only takes 4.4 attempts per game. He’s averaging 14.7 in these head-to-head matchups and has 16, 20, 18, 20.
Pick: Jabari Smith Over 12.5 (-120)
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Hawks vs. Raptors
This matchup is one of the several duplex spots (two consecutive home games) on Friday night's slate and in the first matchup the Raptors took care of business. That makes this a prime spot for the Hawks to come out swinging with a little extra motivation in the first half.
Even in their loss, Atlanta won the first half 66-64. It wasn't until the third quarter that things started to get dicey for Atlanta.
Off a loss this season, the Hawks are 8-5 on the moneyline and would net you a 24% ROI if you bet them every time in this spot. On the road this season, they're 7-6 with a +11.54% ROI per EV Analytics.
I do lean to the Raptors for the full game so I'll play this smaller, but I make the first half line Hawks -1.5. I'll take the Hawks in the first half in an extra motivation spot.
Pick: Hawks 1H ML (+100)
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Knicks vs. Suns
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks obviously miss Mitchell Robinson but I think in this specific matchup the loss is mitigated by the presence of Jericho Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Knicks have been better on the season in Adjusted Net Rating (+2.2 vs +1.4) and while the Suns are now whole with their Big 3 of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant, they still clearly need time to acclimate to each other.
While the Suns offense is potent, their defense is lacking and Bradley Beal's return certainly does not improve the defense overall. This is an area the Knicks can attack. The Knicks have been playing bully ball with Julius Randle and as long as he continues to attack the rim, the offensive floor significantly raises for this team.
Additionally, the Suns have surrendered monster games to driving point guards such as Jalen Brunson – their defense struggles to contain that type of threat.
Ultimately, this is a game the Knicks should come out firing in given their tough loss to the Jazz on Wednesday night, and their positional depth and continuity will help them against a Suns team that has played very few minutes together.
Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-115)
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