NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Friday, Jan. 26
The NBA regular season continues today with a solid eight-game slate headlined by Mavericks vs Hawks and Trail Blazers vs Spurs on NBA TV. However, Action Network's NBA staff is mostly focused on the other six games on the slate — with just one pick locked in for tonight's nationally televised doubleheader, and seven picks dialed up for the other six games.
Let's dive into our NBA best bets and expert predictions for Friday, January 26.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Suns vs. Pacers
By Jim Turvey
The Phoenix Suns look to make it eight straight wins on Friday night when they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. The Suns have all their Big Three healthy, and now look as strong as they have all season. For a team I have been looking to fade from a futures perspective all season, this is a time I don't mind being on them night-to-night.
I want to target this bet to the first half, however. The Suns have been excellent in the first 24 minutes of contests this season, with a +5.2 net rating and 25-18-1 ATS record in the first half.
The Pacers, on the other hand, have been a second half team, actually posting a negative first half net rating, resulting in a record of 21-24-1 ATS before the break (compared to 25-18-3 overall).
Tyrese Haliburton will be returning for the Pacers, but it is a third game in four nights for Indiana compared to the Suns on normal rest. The Pacers have taken money in the full game market, so bettors could also wait to see if the half line keeps adjusting, but I like this up to Suns -4.5, so there is plenty of leeway regardless.
Pick: Suns 1H -2 (-110)
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Suns vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
Siakam is coming off of a triple double last night against the Philadelphia 76ers and now gets a rematch from last Sunday against the Phoenix Suns. I covered this game overall here.
In the last three games without Haliburton, he has assist totals of 7, 4, and 10 while averaging 10.3 potentials per game. That seven-assist game was against the Suns.
Siakam has seen sky high usage in these games as well, averaging 28.3% which aligns more closely with how he was used in Toronto prior to this season. Over the last few seasons, as a primary offensive engine he’s averaged over five assists per game.
I like this spot for him today as he’s gathered more synergy with his teammates in a now familiar matchup.
Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 4.5 Assists (-130)
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Mavericks vs. Hawks
By Chris Baker
On paper these are two teams that are trending in the wrong direction and have each lost three games straight but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Mavericks have struggled with injuries to both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving over the past few weeks and during their recent loss streak they’ve lost to good teams in the Celtics, Suns, and Lakers.
The Hawks have been getting blown out over their last three games and they’ve looked checked out. I don’t think they are fully quitting on the team but it is hard to compete your hardest when there are so many public rumors about trades floating around the media.
If you watch the Hawks last few games you’ve seen complete lapses of focus and effort and often times guys just not running back on defense off turnovers or misses. The Mavericks have struggled to score over their last few games but their core rotation is still intact and committed to this team.
The same can’t be said about the Hawks. Additionally, the Hawks have a plethora of injuries and questionable designations with Trae Young and Clint Capela both being questionable.
Even if everyone goes this is an awful matchup for them against Luka Doncic as they just simply do not have competent wing defenders in their current rotation.
Doncic should be able to go anywhere he wants on the court here. The Mavericks may also get back Kyrie Irving tonight which would definitely be an added boost to this bet. Play this up to -3.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
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Rockets vs. Hornets
The Houston Rockets are the clear sharp side for this Friday face off. Despite being the road favorite, and generally a weak road team, they travel to Charlotte who are shorthanded with offensive playmakers after the Rozier trade.
The Rockets also regain the presence of Jabari Smith, one of their best young shooters and defenders. Smith allows the Rockets to play with space on offense and tremendous pressure on defense, and has been a key to their success all season.
With Jabari Smith active, a good number at -5, movement to -6 on the board, and sharp splits, give me the Rockets for 1-unit.
Pick: Rockets -5.5 (-110)
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Rockets vs. Hornets
This is one I'll just keep playing until the books adjust, because Brandon Miller could become a 20-point scorer without Terry Rozier as the Hornets flounder for the rest of the season.
Miller has scored 20-plus in four straight, so if he continues on this tear, I think his prop will elevate down the stretch.
The Hornets have every incentive for him to eat up the heavy usage Rozier left on the table, and I think it will lead to more high volume outings going forward, as we're already seeing.
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 17.5 Points (-125)
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Clippers vs. Raptors
This is a potential trap spot for the Clippers as they travel to Toronto for the first game of a seven-game road trip. It is also the first night of a back to back set, with Boston on Saturday. It should definitely be questioned and speculated how the Clippers may handle this schedule spot.
We have seen in the past Kawhi and Lue play half of games, sit the second half, and be available the next day. Do the Clippers' guys play low minutes? On the other side, Quickley and Poeltl are out for the Raptors, and they play pace-up and efficient offensive basketball respectively.
With sharp splits on the under and uncertainty about pace and tempo, give me the under. One unit (or less) play because CLV will not be plentiful here, the line is fairly priced.
Pick: Under 234.5 (-115)
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Magic vs. Grizzlies
By Joe Dellera
This line is too low. While he has seen limited minutes since his return from injury, last game he played just 24 minutes due to the blowout where he didn’t see the floor in the fourth quarter.
Overall Wagner has exceeded this line in 72% of games this season and is averaging 5.6 per game. When he has played 28-plus minutes, the hit rate jumps to 81% on six per game.
Here, this matchup against Memphis is one where he should excel and it presents a slight pace-up spot for the Magic. I fully expect Wagner to near 30 minutes against Memphis, the team with the sixth-worst rebounding percentage in the league. I’ll take him to exceed his base line of 4.5 and 6-plus at +125.
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Rebounds (-150)
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Magic vs. Grizzlies
The Orlando Magic are small road favorites as they face the Memphis Grizzlies in a good buy low opportunity as the team returns to health with key players like Franz Wagner active and knocking the rust off.
The Grizzlies on the other hand are the perfect sell high team, who have been over performing and outright winning despite being without Ja Morant or Desmond Bane.
I doubt the likes of Vince Williams and GiGi Jackson can handle the Paolo-Franz combo, and look for Orlando to win with authority on the road.
We also get a key number here with -5, as a margin of five points is the second most common NBA outcome. Moving to the 5.5 reduces the value, and at that point I would advise playing it at 50-75% exposure.
Pick: Magic -5 (-120)
