NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Monday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Monday brings a new week and another fun slate of NBA games. There are just six games on the schedule tonight and our Action Network NBA betting experts are ready with their four best bets for Monday slate, featuring a moneyline bet, totals and a prop.
Find their NBA best bets and expert picks for Monday below!
Celtics vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
The Pacers play the Celtics for the fourth time this season and this presents a difficult matchup for them. Boston has the personnel to bother Tyrese Haliburton more than most teams and their defense overall is one of the league’s best (2nd in Adjusted Defensive Rating).
The Pacers prefer to play fast; however, Boston’s ability to slow the game down while forcing Haliburton to work through multiple progressions is tough for Indiana to deal with. In the three games they have played, the Pacers have scored 104, 122, and 101 points. The 101 and 104 are the fewest and third-fewest points Indiana has scored in any game this season. When they scored 122 the Pacers shot an incredible 47.5% from deep.
I like Indiana to go under their team total and I prefer this to the full game simply due to Boston’s ability to put up a big offensive performance against this porous Indiana defense.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 120.5
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Rockets vs. Heat
By Jim Turvey
I like the Rockets on both the spread and the moneyline on Monday when they head to Miami. I make this number Heat -2, so there's room on the spread, but I'm looking at the moneyline specifically.
That's due to a factor that has reared its head time and time again for this Heat team this season: Their fourth quarter struggles. The Heat have been outstanding to start game — they have a +9.6 Net Rating in the first quarter; +5.7 in the second quarter; and even +0.7 in the third. However, they are a woeful -11.5 in the fourth quarter, and against a Houston team that is 20-14 ATS in the fourth this season, it could well spell trouble.
I even like a look at one of those same game parlays with the Heat winning the first half, but the Rockets winning the game. Houston has the ninth-best second half net rating in the league this season (+4.1), and the books will treat these are inversely correlated, even though there is a very possible game script to get there. Bettors should be able to get around +550 for Miami to win first half and Houston to win the game.
Pick: Rockets ML (+145)
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Rockets vs. Heat
By Joe Dellera
Miami hosts the the Houston Rockets in a game where Houston will be without two of their key defenders: Dillon Brooks, and more importantly Tari Eason.
I expect their absence to impact the Rockets’ defense overall and I think that they will struggle to defend on the perimeter which should open up more opportunities for Tyler Herro. Couple this with Eason missing and Herro should find it a bit easier to finish on the interior and in the mid range as well.
Herro has averaged 22.4 points per game this season and exceeded this line in 71% of games this season.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 21.5 Points
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Suns vs. Clippers
I noted this in our Suns-Clippers guide for this contest tonight — no team has more unders than the Clippers.
They are 13-21-1 to over, which just means they have a league-high 61.8% under hit rate. The Suns are 20-16, going over 55.6% of games, 11th in the league.
As a home favorite, the Clippers have gone under in 75% of games (4-12-1), while the Suns, as a road dog, have gone under in 83.3% of games, going over once in six tries.
Over 80% of bets at one prominent book are going over 228.5, and yes, the star power is tantalizing given that Kevin Durant is playing tonight — he didn't on Jan. 3 — but the Clippers sample size comes with continuity. James Harden, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook have appeared in 24 games together, and at least three have for all 30 of which they're 19-11 as teammates. More over, these teams are bottom six in the league in pace — 97.6 for the Suns, 97.9 for the Clippers.
Pick: Under 228.5
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