NBA Best Bets Today | Tuesday, Feb. 6
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
  | 9:00 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 9:00 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Magic vs. Heat
By Joe Dellera
Suggs has a solid matchup against the Miami Heat who play a ton of zone. With Jimmy and Rozier, the Heat are allowing the 4th most Catch and Shoot FGM. This is a scheme that his spot-up shooting can exploit.
Suggs’ defense has also kept his minutes extremely stable. When he’s played 20+ minutes (which is all but 5 games this season), he has averaged 13.1 ppg with a hit rate on the 9.5 points in 78% of games. He’s exceeded this line in 4/4 games vs Miami over the last two seasons and this is a great opportunity to continue that.
He has the best matchup between himself, Franz, and Paolo, plus Fultz can't shoot from the perimeter. Couple that with the fact that Orlando may be in the trade market, and it’s entirely possible a couple extra minutes unexpectedly open up between now and tip.
We like Suggs to exceed his 9.5 points prop
Pick: Jalen Suggs over 9.5 Points
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Mavericks vs. Nets
I talked about this play on Buckets and it's a play I like because of the matchup and the spot for Brooklyn. Dallas comes into this fresh off a win against an Embiid-less Sixers team–a team the Nets also beat in Philly on Saturday. But I expect a letdown for Dallas after the road win.
The Nets are coming off an 11-point loss to the Warriors at home on Monday night, but that was more about the spot for Golden State than it was a cause of concern for the Nets. Golden State was coming off a 60-point Steph Curry performance in a loss on the road to the worst ATS team in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks. They were out for vengeance no matter the opponent.
Back to the Nets, who should see Ben Simmons in this game. Simmons' defensive presence has been extremely impactful for Brooklyn who rank seventh in the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. Simmons sat out against Golden State, but I think that's so he could suit up against his former teammate, Kyrie Irving, who returns for his first game in Brooklyn since requesting a trade last season. I expect Kyrie to have a great game, but so will his former teammates, who will be gunning for him.
Defensively, the Nets are set up to beat a team like Dallas who are a 3-point-heavy team that does little to attack the interior. Nic Claxton is a great defender, but his lack of size can sometimes lead to exploitation against larger teams. The Mavericks aren't one of those teams.
I project the Nets as favorites in this game, so I'll back them at any plus-number.
Pick: Nets +2
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Bucks vs. Suns
By Chris Baker
Too low regardless of Damian Lillard’s status as these are two top-5 offenses in the NBA who have each ramped up their pace as of late.
The Suns are ranked 6th in offensive rating on paper but the season-long data doesn’t account for how elite their offense has been when they’ve been healthy. When they’ve had their big three of Beal, Booker, Durant on the court together they have an unreal 131.5 offensive rating. We’ve also seen Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen be highly effective in their roles this year as Nurkic leads the team in net-rating while Allen is actually leading the entire NBA in three point shooting converting on half of his looks from deep.
Additionally, Lillard’s questionable status does not move me that much as he has not looked like himself this season. The offense is +4.2 points better with him on the court but the major impact player has been Giannis who has an offensive rating swing of +11.3. Besides, if Lillard sits we will likely see more Cameron Payne minutes and he is equally as much of a cone.
With Brook Lopez still questionable with a personal issue I think this line should be closer to 246 so will gladly take the 243.5.
Pick: Over 243.5
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Thunder vs. Jazz
By Joe Dellera
The Jazz host the Thunder where they have a significant rest advantage as the Thunder will play their 6th game in 9 days.
One player to target is Simone Fontecchio. His Points + Rebounds line is set at 11.5, a number he’s exceeded in 7 of his last 10 games and he’s smashed it in both games against OKC. He had 19 and 2 along with 12 and 5.
When OKC gets tired, the defense falters. They get lax and they are slower to rotate. This is something Fontecchio can take advantage of as a sharpshooting wing.
I’ll grab him to exceed 11.5 PR.
Pick: Simone Fontecchio over 11.5 PR
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Timberwolves vs. Bulls
This is an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" bet.
Ayo Dosunmu is over in six of his last seven games, and often scoring 16 plus, to the point where I was stunned to find this at 12.5 points. I don't think he'll be here much longer and expected that a a few more overs will see him propped in the mid teens, especially with Zach LaVine out for the season.
Dosunmu is coming along as a scorer, which he did plenty of at Illinois, and as an aside, is one of the best fantasy pickups out there right now. Dosunmu is likely down at 12.5 points because his shot diet isn't crazy — he is averaging 11.6 field goal attempts over his last seven, with just one game above 12 shot attempts, his last effort, where he got to 16, and he's only at two free throw attempts during that stretch.
But to date, he's shooting 57/43 from the field and from three on this run, averaging 16.7 points over his last seven, so even if the efficiency drops a bit, he should still see an over.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu over 12.5 pts (-105)
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Mavericks vs. Nets
By Chris Baker
I’ll back the Mavericks coming off a solid win over the 76ers in Philly.
The Mavericks are the healthiest they have been in a while and neither Kyrie Irving or Luka Doncic have injury designations heading into tonight’s game. Irving should be focused here as he returns to Brooklyn to take on his former team. Additionally, the Nets lost two key contributors in Lonnie Walker and Cam Johnson in last night’s game versus the Warriors.
They were already down Dorian Finney Smith so now they are running short on quality wing defenders to match up with Luka Doncic. Spencer Dinwiddie looks completely checked out of the team so they will need elite mid-range shooting performances from Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges if they want to keep pace with the Mavericks here. I just think this line should be -3.5 or -4 with Luka and Kyrie healthy so grabbing the 2.5 is value for me.
Pick: Mavericks -2.5
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Grizzlies vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
Tonight, the Knicks have a matchup against the Grizzlies who have been trotting out what has amounted to a bench squad without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart plus Jaren Jackson Jr is Doubtful for tonight as well.
But because the Knicks are undergoing some health issues of their own, I think they’re trying may have a bit of difficulty pulling away which mitigates some of the blowout potential.
One player to target is Josh Hart.
Hart has been an absolutely wagon on this line without OG Anunoby and Julius Randle. He has hit this in 4 straight games while averaging 17.3 RA on 40.3 minutes per game. His presence on the floor as not only a rebounding threat, but as a secondary or tertiary facilitator is incredibly important.
The Grizzlies are not a good team right now, and there should be plenty of opportunities for easy buckets on offense and to clean the glass on both sides.
I like Josh Hart to continue his strong play and exceed 13.5 RA.
Pick: Josh Hart over 13.5 RA
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Thunder vs. Jazz
Simone Fontecchio has been an automatic over 3.5 rebounds for a while now, the sickos know.
I played him on best bets last week on this same prop at plus money, and while the books have adjusted, he's still a favorable bet at -130 ish given past performances.
Fontecchio has hit over 3.5 boards in 10 of his last 11 games. Why add in the points? His points over/under is 7.5, which he's gone over in seven of 10, while averaging 10 points per game during that stretch. He's over 11.5 points and boards in the exact same seven of 10, including a near miss at 11 exactly just two games ago.
I like both tonight.
Pick: Simone Fontecchio over 3.5 rebounds (-135) | over 11.5 pts + rebs (-130)
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Timberwolves vs. Bulls
By Joe Dellera
The Minnesota Timberwolves head to Chicago to take on the Bulls and one matchup I’m watching is in the paint.
I expect Rudy Gobert to dominate this matchup against Nikola Vucevic.
Gobert has been an absolute force in this spot. He has cleared this rebounds line in 12 consecutive head-to-head contests against Vuc. He’s averaged an absurd 16.6 rebounds per game and when Vuc has been with the Bulls he’s tallied 19, 20, 19, and 13 rebounds against him.
Gobert already leads the league in Rebounding Chances with 21.8 per game to go along with 12.5 rebounds per game. He has exceeded this line in 10 of his last 15 games as well.
The Bulls have surrendered monster rebounding games to Centers this season including Hartenstein (20), Wembanyama (20), Allen (17), Nurkic (17), and Jokic (16).
Gobert should join their ranks tonight and I’ll play some alts as well.
Pick: Rudy Gobert over 12.5 Rebounds
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