NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 16
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kings vs. Suns
By Joe Dellera
The Kings visit the Valley to take on the Suns in what should be an exciting game on a thin Tuesday night Slate.
One player I expect to struggle in this matchup is Domantas Sabonis. Historically, he has not performed well against Nurkic in head-to-head matchups. In 12 career games, Sabonis has exceeded 20 points just once and even earlier this season Sabonis tallied just 15 points on 6/11 shooting.
The primary issue has been he gets into foul trouble and this limits not only his minutes but his opportunities.
Staying out of foul trouble will be even more difficult considering Keegan Murray (hip) is Questionable and if he’s unable to go, it takes away one of the Kings’ better defensive options to help insulate Sabonis.
Sabonis has averaged 20.1 points per game this year, but he has struggled against these bigger and stronger Centers. I expect him to go under his 20.5 points prop.
Pick: Domantas Sabonis under 21.5 points
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Kings vs. Suns
Since returning from injury, Bradley Beal has fit in well with Phoenix and what it likes to do offensively, which is unload from midrange. The Suns rank second in shot frequency in the midrange–the area where Beal gets the most of his looks. The Kings do a good job of running shooters off the 3-point line and preventing shots at the rim, but what makes this a good matchup for the Suns is that stinginess from the interior and exterior, leaves the middle of the court unguarded.
Beal is definitely the third banana of this Big Three, but he still regularly sees 32+ minutes per game on 24.5 over the last eight games and that means he's not seeing the opposing teams' best–or even second-best defender. Keegan Murray is questionable Tuesday, and he probably is the Kings best defender, which means if Murray is out, the Kings will be down one less competent defender on a team that doesn't have many to go around.
Beal's points line is just too low for a paced up game against the Kings with a total in the low 240's and a line he's cleared in six of his past eight games. The two games he went under came against the lengthy, switch-y Clippers and the Grizzlies with the seventh-ranked schedule-adjusted defense per Dunks and Threes. I like over 20.5 points, but wouldn't go past 21.5 without plus-money odds.
Pick: Bradley Beal over 20.5 points
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Thunder vs. Clippers
Oklahoma City is in a tough scheduling spot as it gets set to play a second game in as many nights. The Thunder will remain in Los Angeles to take on the Clippers after suffering a 112-105 setback to the Lakers.
Oklahoma City’s last two games came against teams in the league's top half in defensive efficiency. The Clippers certainly qualify as one of those better defensive teams, ranking 13th in TeamRankings’ efficiency metric.
However, the Clippers have one of the highest home-away splits regarding their defense. Los Angeles allows 107.1 points per 100 possessions at home vs. 114.1 points per 100 possessions on the road.
Given the Thunder’s recent opponents, I think the Clippers have plenty of valuable film study they can implement into their game plan for this matchup.
It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma City is in a shooting slump from behind the perimeter. Over its last three games, Oklahoma City is shooting 30.8% on 3-point attempts compared to 38.9% on the season.
Until I see Oklahoma City regain its shooting touch, I think the under has a ton of value, with Caesars pricing this total at 237 points.
After running the numbers, my model projects a total closer to 229 points, giving me a significant edge at the current number.
Pick: Under 237 points
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Kings vs. Suns
By Joe Dellera
Another play from this game is Devin Booker under 7.5 Assists. Booker has been having an excellent season and was tasked with carrying and facilitating the offense for much of the season.
His full season numbers for assists are 7.7 per game on 13.6 potentials. However, since Bradley Beal has meaningfully returned and played consistently those numbers have dropped.
Beal has played in the last 9 consecutive games and his own facilitating plus his ability to create his own shot has cut into Booker’s production. Over these 9 games, Booker is averaging 6.6 assists on just 10.3 potentials. This even seems unsustainable – his conversion rate jumps from 56.6% to 64% during this stretch. Partially due to having another elite shotmaker on the floor but this is above league average.
With Beal over the entire season, Booker has exceeded this 7.5 line in just 4 of 12 games and considering the Kings are not nearly as much of a Pace up spot as last season I expect him to go under this 7.5 line.
Pick: Devin Booker under 7.5 Assists
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Kings vs. Suns
Thunder vs. Clippers
I played both of these separately and as a parlay, the latter because it's juiced to +174.
Fox to hit over 4.5 assists is in -140 territory at the moment. He's averaging 5.8 dimes for the year but only has one over 4.5 in his last six, so why play it? Because he has seven in each game against the Suns this season. Granted, neither effort was against all of their big three — the last one, on December 22, missing Bradley Beal, but his added presence doesn't effect an opposing assist prop. Fox will break out of his assist slump any week now, and getting five against the Milwaukee Bucks last timeout (in regulation) was a good sign. Action Pro also gives this a better than six percent edge to go over.
Regarding Paul George, his recent track record is better, hence why this is in the -160s standing alone. George has gone over 2.5 assists in 24 of 37 games this season and in nine of his last 14. I feel better about this one given the track record, and this game could be an up tempo one because of the lack of transition defense we'll see on both sides, which helps the assists.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox over 4.5 assists + Paul George over 2.5 assists parlay (+174)
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