NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
With the second day of the new year underway, we have to get you settled in just right. The NBA has a six-game slate on deck and our experts provide their insight on how to take on four of the six matchups for Tuesday, January 2.
Find their NBA best bets and expert picks below, including selections for Magic vs. Warriors, Celtics vs. Thunder, Spurs vs. Grizzlies and more.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
This isn't an easy one, but here's why I think 3+ stocks is worth a buy in from Mr. Smart.
The Grizzlies are -11.5 point favorites for good reason — they're a different team with Ja Morant, and to a lesser degree, Smart in the lineup.
Smart's been limited due to injury but has gotten three stocks in seven of 15 games he's played with Memphis, including three of his last four since returning from injury. Opposing teams steal the ball from the Spurs 8.5 times per 100 possessions, which is fourth in the NBA, and 8.8 per game, which is tied for second.
I loved Smart at over 1.5 steals, but that's about -150, so another steal or a block gets me +135 odds against one of the worst and most turnover prone teams in the league? Sure, why not?
In his 15 games, Smart has gotten three or more steals in six, and he has five blocks on the season, so the price is far, but very attainable, in my opinion.
Pick: Marcus Smart Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+135 at DraftKings)
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Magic vs. Warriors
By Joe Dellera
The Magic start the new year off on the road against the Golden State Warriors. One player that I expect to excel in this matchup is Franz Wagner.
On the season, Wagner is averaging 21.2 Points, 6.0 Rebounds, and 4.0 assists and has continued to improve each passing day. One stat that I’m targeting here is his Rebounds. His line is set at 5.5 rebounds, a number he has exceeded in 63% of games this season and 8 of his last 10.
The Magic’s defense has been one of the league’s best this season, which should set up plenty of opportunities for Wagner to crash the glass.
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 5.5 Rebounds
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Celtics vs. Thunder
Oklahoma City is as high as a four-point underdog heading into Tuesday's home game against the Celtics. It has been a one-way street regarding the price action after Boston opened as a one-point favorite.
Interestingly, the line movement doesn't appear to be injury-related. There is, of course, the revenge spot with Boston after last January's 150-117 loss in Oklahoma City.
According to our Action Labs database, favorites who lost by 33 or more points in a previous head-to-head meeting are 65-50-1 for 11 units.
While that angle is undoubtedly intriguing, it's the total I'm most interested in for this matchup.
I was surprised that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown featured in that lopsided loss. Tatum finished with 27 points while Brown had a game-high 29 points.
This total is up to 240.5; both teams are a combined 35-27-1 to the over this season. Although it feels steep, the over is on a 5-0 run in this series.
Nonetheless, I think we can get better value by targeting the first half total of 118 (-112) at FanDuel. Per TeamRankings, Oklahoma City averages 105.2 possessions at home vs. 103.9 on the road.
Look for the Thunder to establish another fast pace in front of their home fans. This season, the first-half total is 12-5 to the over in Thunder home games.
Moreover, this angle is on a 9-0-1 run.
Though Oklahoma City can put up another impressive showing, this first-half total is too good to pass up. I would play this up to 119.5.
Pick: 1H Total Over (-118 at DraftKings)
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Celtics vs. Thunder
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league by the metrics, and often, the eye test.
Opponents are shooting a league-worse 44.3 percent against the Thunder, and just 44.9 percent against the Celtics, third best in the league. The Thunder also allow the lowest field goals made per 100 possessions (39.4) and just 111.5 points per 100 possessions, sixth lowest in the league. The Celtics, slightly better at the latter, allow 111.2 points per 100 possessions, third lowest in the league.
So why is the total 240? Because both teams could also really score, averaging 121.8 (Celtics) and 120.0 (Thunder) points per 100 possessions, good for for second and sixth in the NBA — both tallies a little fattened by feasting on the mid and lower class of the league.
Still, I expect almost a playoff atmosphere with the best regular season team in the NBA visiting a vibrant market in OKC, who may have a real contender on their hands. To me, this is a slight under, and ideally, a great game.
Pick: Under 240.5
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Hornets vs. Kings
By Joe Dellera
The Kings take on the Hornets tonight in what should be a manageable game for Sacramento to start the season. The Kings are 14th in Adjusted Net Rating but have been much improved with De’Aaron Fox compared to the 29th Ranked Adjusted Net Rating of the Hornets. This is a game I expect the Kings to win.
One player that has had dramatically different splits this season has been De’Aaron Fox. On the season he is averaging 6.1 assists per game, but that number drops to 3.6 in losses and spikes to 7.6 in wins. He has exceeded this 5.5 assists line in 14/16 games this season and should have no trouble dishing against this porous Charlotte defense.
I like Fox to record over 5.5 assists.
Pick: De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists
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