NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 30
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pacers vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Celtics host the Pacers tonight and this is a great matchup for Jaylen Brown due to the defensive scheme the Pacers run. The Pacers allow their opponents to attack them on the interior by forcing them off the 3 point line – this aligns with Brown's shot profile.
Brown is great at attacking the rim off the bounce, and even with Pascal Siakam replacing Obi Toppin in the starting lineup this defense is not one to write home about.
Since the Siakam trade, the Pacers are still surrendering threes at the lowest frequency in the league while allowing Midrange shots at one of the highest, per Cleaning the Glass.
Brown can exploit this and has this season. Brown has exceeded this PR line in 6/7 against Indiana dating back to last year with 45, 35, 39, and 23 this season. He is able to contribute as both a scoring threat and as a rebounder in what should be an uptempo game with Tyrese Haliburton back in the fold.
I like him to exceed 28.5 Points + Rebounds.
Pick: Jaylen Brown over 28.5 PR
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Pacers vs. Celtics
There are a few reasons I like Boston to cover the first half, the most important of which is the motivation spot for the Celtics who I expect to be aggressive right out of the gate after the controversial no-foul call on Jaylen Brown led to a Pacers win the last time these two played.
Hield admitted he fouled Brown which only added to the Celtics frustration at the no-call and will only embolden them to come out firing right away. In addition to being the best first half cover team in the league (34-11-1 per EV Analytics), more specifically, this is just a great spot for Boston, even off a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights.
Even in a bad rest spot like that, the Celtics are 11-5-1 ATS under Joe Mazzulla and 4-2 this season. In games where the Celtics lost the previous head-to-head matchup, Boston is 19-11 ATS under Mazzulla and 7-3 this season, not to mention, they've covered the first half in all four meetings this season, win or lose.
This will also likely be the first game back for Tyrese Haliburton who missed the last five games with a hamstring injury, and just the second time Hali will play with recent acquisition, Pascal Siakam. The one and only time was in a loss to the lowly Trailblazers. Additionally, Benedict Mathurin (toe) Myles Turner (back) and Jalen Smith (back) are all listed questionable for Tuesday's match. Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) and Luke Kornet (hamstring) were ruled out of Monday's win against the Pelicans and we can expect Al Horford to rest the second night of the back-to-back, but I think Porzingis was held out so he can play Tuesday.
Either way, if he's in or out, I like the Celtics here as I expect some rust and a slow start to the game for Indiana, given the unfamiliarity and the potential for a depleted Pacers squad. I like Boston in the first half down to -5 regardless of who's in or out. Follow in the Action App to see how I play the full game.
Pick: Celtics 1H -3
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Jazz vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks are without Julius Randle for the next few weeks and I wrote about that at length here.
There are numerous players that will need to step up, but Jalen Brunson will be the clear head of the snake and number one option. This matchup against the Jazz on a back-to-back is tougher than the matchup last night against the Hornets but Brunson should still excel. The matchup against the Hornets was one where he could score a bit easier than this spot against the Jazz and Khris Dunn who is an excellent point of attack defender. Even then, against the Hornets he racked up 7 assists on 14 potentials and those numbers have been up without RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley.
Utah has allowed point guards to thrive when dishing the ball. Last night, they surrendered a combined 24dimes to Ben Simmons, Dennis Smith Jr, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Tyus Jones also racked up 14 just a few days ago as well.
Considering Randle's absence and the void that leaves in the offense, Brunson should take the opportunity to dime to his teammates in a clear Pace Up spot against the Jazz who play at the seventh-fastest Pace in the NBA.
Pick: Jalen Brunson over 7.5 Assists
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Jazz vs. Knicks
Simone Fontecchio's actual rebounding prop is over 2.5 boards set at no shorter than -175, which has been an automatic hit in eight straight games, hence the price.
So I'm playing him over 3.5 boards because during this same eight-game stretch, he's gotten four or more rebounds in all but one. Fontecchio's been starting for most of the season and is logging nearly 27 minutes per game during his last 33 appearances.
But the Jazz and Knicks just played last night, so this is the second of a back-to-back, and in it, I'll ride with Simone's boards at this price, especially with New York down Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks also missed OG Anunoby last night due to an elbow injury, and he's day-to-day.
Pick: Simone Fontecchio alt over 3.5 rebounds +135
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Pacers vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Pacers head to Boston and will take on the Celtics tonight. The Pacers are returning Tyrese Haliburton who will have his minutes managed but should immediately bolster the offense.
One player that helped carry the Pacers in his absence was the newly acquired Pascal Siakam. Siakam is averaging 21.3 Points, 7.7 Rebounds, and 5.7 assists in his six games with the Pacers (albeit just one game with Haliburton).
Siakam’s presence should be helpful here against Boston who has one of the best defenses in the NBA, but are lead by two dominant point of attack wing defenders in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. I expect that Siakam may have the best time getting into the paint to score and facilitate despite the presence of Kristaps Porzingis.
He has exceeded this line in 67% of games this season, and considering how suppressed his Usage was in Toronto this season it’s more indicative of playing alongside a high usage guard such as Haliburton.
Pick: Pascal Siakam over 22.5 PA
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