NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Wednesday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's Thanksgiving Eve, and we have NBA best bets today and expert picks for Wednesday, November 22 up and ready for you.
With no games on Thursday, the Association makes sure we aren't short of action today, with a solid 14-game slate ahead to hold you over for the next couple of days. So before you and your family fill up on turkey and all of the fixings, let's get you stuffed with best bets for Wednesday night.
Bucks vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
The Bucks take on the Celtics in what could be an Eastern Conference Finals preview. One player I'm backing is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis and Damian Lillard have seen their on-court synergy improve after a slow start to the season. They both have started to play with each other as opposed to taking turns as the primary offensive weapon. This has contributed to a spike in their assists totals.
One thing I noticed is Dame is playing more possessions just one pass away from Giannis, especially when Giannis is in the post. If teams double Giannis (which they often do), then Dame is just one pass away to drain the jumper. Over his last 5 games, Giannis is averaged 6.6 assists per game with totals of 7, 2, 9, 7, and 8 assists. I have this assists line as a full dime too low and I'll grab the over.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 4.5 Assists
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Bucks vs. Celtics
The line may move, but I grabbed this at -4.5 yesterday afternoon and like it probably at 5 or 5.5 as well.
I broke this down for my preview on the game, so I'll touch on it here so you hopefully read that (I got bills, bro).
The Celtics have just looked a lot better than Milwaukee even though they're hardly apart in the standings. The Bucks are 4-3 on the road and were 1-3 before winning against the Raptors, Wizards and Hornets.
The Celtics are 5-0 at home — meaning they're 6-3 on the road — and +112 in Boston in terms of point differential, averaging a 22.4 point margin of victory.
The more I sniff around this game, the more I see the Celtics winning and covering. If the Bucks win, it's just typical NBA regular season unforeseen bs… like the Celtics loss against the Hornets this Monday, I suppose.
Celtics by 5 or more… and I'm a New Yorker, so I'd rather not make this bet, but we're being unbiased.
Pick: Celtics -4.5 (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Rockets
By Prop Bomb
With a month of play early into the season, no team is catching the injury bug as bad as the Grizzlies are. As the team waits for Ja Morant, this leaves Desmond Bane as the unquestioned alpha of this offense alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. anchoring the defense.
Last game, it took Bane seven made three-pointers to clear this at home vs Boston, but I still believe his points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) line remains too high in a tough matchup against the Rockets.
Bane is averaging 34.4 PRA on the road and cleared this line in five of the seven times. Zooming out to the five games in total he went over this (POR, UTA, NOP, & DAL), four of the five teams rank in the top ten in points in the paint allowed – which accounts for 47% of Bane’s total field goals made this season.
The Rockets are a brutal matchup for Bane because of how dominant they’ve been on the defensive front at home under new head coach Ime Udokah. Between Dillon Brooks (his primary defender), Jae’Sean Tate, and Jeff Green, Houston can throw a lot of plus-rated defenders toward Bane.
Plus, at Toyota Center, the Rockets own the fifth-best defensive rating and opposing field goal percentage, permit the fewest fastbreak and total assists allowed, and are slowing down the pace at the third-lowest rate in the league – all of which translates to allowing the third lowest points per game (101.4) against opposing teams.
It’s a tough matchup for Bane, who’d likely need an efficient game, which will be hard after what Ime Udokah schemed against him. Despite his added volume and usage, I have difficulty seeing Bane collect enough stats to surpass his 37.5 PRA prop tonight.
Pick: Desmond Bane U37.5 PRA (-120)
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Warriors vs. Suns
By Chris Baker
I am leaning toward this over given who I expect to see on the floor for both teams tonight.
The Suns offense has been wildly efficient whenever Devin Booker has been in the lineup and I think that this Sun defense is potentially very bad. They rank 19th in defensive rating but have played the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses thus far. We’ve seen them struggle to defend bad teams like the Spurs, Jazz, and Trail Blazers, and I expect Steph Curry and the Warriors to explode here.
This lines up perfectly for a Warriors outburst, as the Warriors rank 13th in offensive rating despite playing the single toughest schedule of opposing defenses this year. I think this Warrior offense exploits this Suns defense, so I’ll take the over here.
Pick: Over 233.5
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