NBA Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
There are a pair of massive Game 3s on the NBA's Saturday slate and our betting analyst has an expert pick for each game — Thunder vs. Mavericks and Celtics vs. Cavaliers.
So, rather than waste more time on an introduction, let's get right to the NBA best bets today.
Thunder vs. Mavericks
The Thunder and Mavericks go back to Dallas tied at one, mean Game 3 is a high-pressure, desperation environment for both teams. In Game 2, the Mavericks dominated, but in big part due to shooting variance.
P.J. Washington shot 7-of-10 from deep, Luka Doncic made his first three 3s, and even though the Thunder battled, the Mavericks continued to hit big shots. I expect Oklahoma City to make defensive adjustments to run the Mavericks a bit off the line. I hope it becomes the "force only Doncic to beat us" version of the Mavericks because that is a slow, half-court set. I can tell this is developing sharp spot and will likely drop to about 216.5 at close. Grab it at 217.5 or above and let's aim to be a full point ahead of the market for one unit of exposure.
Pick: Under 218
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Over 12.5 RA
By Joe Dellera
The Thunder and Mavericks head into Game 3 tied at one game apiece.
One player who has risen in this series is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and I don’t think the books have captured just how much his role has expanded as Josh Giddey’s has simultaneously decreased.
In two games this series, Shai is averaging 8.5 assists and 10.5 rebounds on 13.5 potentials and 16 rebound chances — good for 18 and 20 RA performances.
Giddey’s minutes decrease has improved the spacing for SGA's dribble penetration, allowing him to rack up assists. Plus, Giddey doesn't take up the easy boards to kickstart transition offense.
I like the idea of laddering this by tying in our outcomes. SGA to record eight assists and eight rebounds in a same-game parlay is +597 at ESPN Bet, which has cashed in both Games 1 and 2. Ten assists and 10 rebounds is +4000 at BetMGM, which is certainly worth a stab considering his recent performance.
SGA hasn’t had a triple-double in years, but in a must-win Game 3 to shift home-court back to the Thunder, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to perform.
I like SGA to exceed 12.5 RA — a number he’s blown by in both Games 1 and 2.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
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Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Jayson Tatum gets a bad rap for appearing "soft." That narrative has popped back up after a Game 2 loss and Tatum's ensuing press conference The truth is, he is an absolute superstar and has shown it in many times in crucial playoff games.
Tatum has two 50+ point playoff games in critical series junctures — Game 6 down 3-2 against Milwaukee and Game 7 against Philadelphia. Game 3 may be the biggest test the Celtics face to get to the Finals, so I expect the ball in Tatum's hands and for him to look for his shot early and often. As a result, he should get more volume than he's seen in the past few games. His 3s line is discounted from his regular-season price, although he's likely to play even more minutes. Grab this now.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3PM
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