The NBA regular season continues on Thursday, Dec. 28 with an eight-game slate. Our NBA betting experts have analyzed the odds and found their four best bets, including spread picks, player props and totals.
Find their expert NBA best bets and predictions below, including a pick for Heat vs Warriors.
NBA Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jazz vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
The Pelicans host the Jazz tonight and look to bounce back after a brutal brutal loss to the Grizzlies in Overtime. On the flip side, the Jazz are playing the last game of a five-game road trip before heading back to Utah in a tough schedule spot.
I expect the Pelicans to start off strong and make a statement off the bat, and this is a spot in which the Pelicans have excelled. They are the league's best first-half team against the spread at home with a 12-3-1 record returning bettors +8.70 units in this spot.
Additionally, the Pelicans have been significantly better than the Jazz in the first half over the course of the entire season. Even looking at only the last 10 games, the Pelicans have a First-half Net Rating of +14.8 compared to the Jazz’s -7.5, per NBA Advanced Stats.
I'll back New Orleans in the first half tonight.
Pick: Pelicans 1H -4.5 (-110)
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Jazz vs. Pelicans
By Chris Baker
This is a bad matchup for the Jazz defense as the Pelicans are loaded with length and size on the wings and at center. The Jazz defense currently ranks 26th in Adjusted Defensive Rating despite playing the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses, per dunksandthrees.com.
They’ve been completely incapable of getting stops with Walker Kessler off the floor as they have a horrific 121.9 Defensive Rating with him off the court versus a 115.0 Defensive Rating with him on the floor, a -6.9 swing.
Kessler’s minutes have been trending down, and he hasn’t started the last few games, so expect Jonas Valanciunas and Zion Williamson to dominate in the paint here.
The Pelicans defense may also struggle against this Jazz offense as the Pels allow the second-highest 3-point Attempt Rate (40.7%) in the NBA. The Jazz rank seventh in offensive 3-point Attempt Rate (38.3%), so they should get up tons of 3s here.
Ultimately, these defenses don’t match up very well with the opposing offenses, and I’m willing to back Over 239 in a game between two teams that rank in the top 15 in Pace.
Pick: Over 239 (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets
By Joe Dellera
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gets a favorable matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who allow the third-most 3s per game. KCP can thrive from the perimeter but also has no issue attacking the rim, especially when Aaron Gordon, who is out due to dog bites, is off the floor.
Over the last two seasons, KCP has played 15 games without Gordon. In those games, he has scored 10+ points in 12/15 games and is averaging 12.9 points per game.
While Christian Braun and Julian Strawther are more natural replacements for the Gordon minutes, KCP sees the Usage Rate uptick. I also don’t hate a sprinkle on KCP to score 15+ points at +450 on FanDuel as he’s hit this in six of those 15 games without Gordon but two out of four times this season.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 10.5 Points
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Heat vs. Warriors
Bam Adebayo has accumulated over 26.5 points plus assists in two of the four games he's played since returning from injury and in 10 of 20 games this season.
He should exceed this number tonight because centers have thrived against the Warriors in these two categories, and Adebayo excels as both a scorer and distributor.
Adebayo averages 22 points and 4.1 assists per game this season, 21 and five since his return, and Jimmy Butler is still questionable with a calf injury. The Warriors give up the ninth-most points per game to opposing centers at 23.5 and the most assists to centers at 5.3 per game.
If Butler is out again, I love this prop. If he's active, I'm probably still fine with it, though ideally I’d wait for this number to drop slightly before betting it.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-110)
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