NBA Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Thursday, Jan. 11
Via Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah Hartenstein #55 of the New York Knicks celebrates during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks on December 25, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
The NBA regular season continues with a five-game slate on Thursday, January 11th. Our Action Network NBA staff has found its four best bets for Thursday, including two picks for Nets vs. Cavaliers in the NBA Paris Game on NBA TV this afternoon.
Find their NBA best bets and expert picks for Thursday below.
NBA Best Bets Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 2 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 8:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nets vs. Cavaliers
By Jim Turvey
The Cavaliers lost Darius Garland on December 15th, as he joined the already injured Evan Mobley with a diagnosis of missing at least a month. It appeared to be really rough news for a Cavs team that was already underperforming and didn't have a great backup point guard.
Instead, in nearly a month since, the Cavs are 8-3 with a +7.2 Net Rating that ranks fifth in the league over that span.
In particular, the offense has thrived, with the fourth-best Offensive Rating in that time.
The Nets, on the other hand, peaked right around that same date and have lost 11 of 14 since December 13th.
These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions with vastly different preseason expectations to boot, and yet the books have them graded as basically even on a neutral court.
I have this at Cavs -7, so I'm shocked by this number and have it with plenty of room for bettors.
Pick: Cavaliers -2.5
Nets vs. Cavaliers
By Chris Baker
I like this game to go over this low total as there is a potential for slightly less defensive intensity from both teams. This is obviously a special scenario as this game will be played in Paris, and while I don’t think it will have the same vibe as an All-Star Game, there could be a similar type of laxity on defense given the circumstances of the game and the audience.
But even if we ignore the circumstances of this game, these teams both rank among the top 10 in 3-point Attempt Rate on the season, and the Cavs have particularly ramped it up since losing Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. The Cavs rank second in 3-point Attempt Rate (41.7%) since December. Unfortunately, they rank just 21st in 3-point Accuracy (36.1%) over that span.
This is a great spot for them to get right as over the last 15 games, the Nets are allowing 22.1 wide open 3s per game, the third-most in the NBA. Opponents are shooting 48.5% on those attempts, the league’s best percentage, per Erik Slater of Clutch Points.
The Cavs are the perfect team to exploit this weakness with snipers like Sam Merill, Max Strus, Georges Niang and Donovan Mitchell all playing major minutes in their current rotation.
Speaking of Mitchell, who is going to guard him on the Nets? Unless they are planning to play Dennis Smith Jr. the entire game, the Nets should have issues keeping Mitchell in front of them.
On the other end of the court, this Nets offense should score against a pretty poor Cavs defense. The Cavs have a below average Defensive Rating of 116.7 with Evan Mobley out of the lineup this season. Take the over at 224.5 here, and I’d play this all the way up to 227.
Pick: Over 224.5
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder
Chet Holmgren looked great against the Miami Heat last night, and now the Thunder fly from Miami back home to host the Portland Trail Blazers, another team that plays at a muddy pace.
Holmgren has gone under 8.5 rebounds in nine of his last 12 games while averaging exactly six boards per contest since December 18, and he hasn't gotten nine or more in consecutive efforts since December 14 and December 16 — nearly a month ago.
He grabbed nine boards last night, which explains why this sits at 8.5 while it really should be projected at 7.5 or even 6.5. Why? Because every time he has gone under this line, he has grabbed six or fewer rebounds — no sevens or eights.
I'd play this to under 7.5 rebounds.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125)
Knicks vs. Mavericks
By Joe Dellera
I discussed how Hartenstein has been excellent for the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson, and he’s also been a rebounding machine since they acquired OG Anunoby.
Over the last five games, he’s had multiple ceiling games where he has grabbed 20, 19 and 14 rebounds. Now, he gets a matchup against the Mavericks, who have one of the worst rebounding rates in the league at just 47.5%, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Dallas has allowed monster performances to opposing centers including Rudy Gobert (17), Jarrett Allen (23), Alperen Sengun (15) and even Chimezie Metu (19!).
Hartenstein is an excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor, and with Dereck Lively II (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (toe) listed as doubtful along with Luka Doncic out, this Mavericks team will be severely undersized.
Hartenstein should smash this line, and I’d take some alts too.
Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 Rebounds
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