The NBA regular season continues on Thursday night with a two-game slate — which means we have your NBA best bets today and expert picks for Thursday.
TNT features both games tonight in a doubleheader as the Spurs host the Bucks at 7:30 p.m. ET before the Nuggets host the Warriors at 10 p.m. ET. Our NBA betting experts are ready with their four best bets for today as they have found three player props and one spread bet worth tailing.
Find their NBA best bets today and expert picks below.
NBA Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bucks vs. Spurs
By Joe Dellera
The Spurs host the Bucks tonight on national television for another Victor Wembanyama showcase. The Bucks have been different from prior seasons with a new coach and poor defensive performances, but they've maintained a 24-10 record and are one of the East's best teams.
On the other hand, the Spurs have been flat-out bad in most games. They are 5-28 on the season and have almost refused to find a groove by not playing their best-fitting players together (see Tre Jones and Victor Wembanyama).
The Bucks should win this game; however, it is a tough situational spot for them. This is their third game in four days, and they've traveled from Milwaukee to Indiana and now to San Antonio while dropping both games to the Pacers yesterday and Monday.
This is a spot where you'd expect the Bucks to bounce back, but even against bad competition (teams among the bottom 10 in Net Rating), they have allowed their opponents to score 115 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
When these two teams faced off on December 19, the game was in Milwaukee, and the Bucks won 132-119, but allowing this Spurs team to score 119 points is problematic — especially considering Victor Wembanyama did not play in that matchup.
I'll grab the points with the home dog.
Pick: Spurs +9.5
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Bucks vs. Spurs
The Bucks take on the Spurs for the second time this season after winning the earlier matchup 132-119. With the Spurs having the worst Net Rating (-11.6) in the league, there's always a potential for a blowout, as opposing teams tend to get fat when playing the Spurs.
This feels like a good spot for Milwaukee's Damian Lillard to have a big game. After all, he dropped 40 points in their earlier meeting.
Thus, I can't see Lillard being too passive, given that his Usage Rate is down to 28%—his lowest since the 2014-15 season, per Basketball-Reference.com.
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With Lillard having the ball less often in his hands this season, his assists are down to 6.7 per game after averaging 7.3 over the previous two years. While he still has moments where he's put up a ton of assists, asking him to go over 7.5 tonight seems steep.
There's always a chance the Spurs get blown out, resulting in the starters getting extra rest on the bench. Given that likelihood, I'll play Lillard to finish under his assists prop of 7.5 (-130) at FanDuel.
Pick: Damian Lillard Under 7.5 Assists (-130)
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Nuggets vs. Warriors
Nikola Jokic just dominates the Warriors.
He's scored 26 or more points in three of four and five of his last seven games against the Warriors, who still won't have Draymond Green available.
While Jokic did struggle against them on Christmas by shooting an uncharacteristic four for 12, he still scored over 25.5 points.
Also uncharacteristic – he's had back to back games under 20 points, which he's only done one other time this season. However, he followed that by exploding for 30 points in Orlando against the Magic. Similarly, I think he bounces back tonight in a more favorable matchup.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-125)
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Nuggets vs. Warriors
By Joe Dellera
The Warriors and Nuggets will play in a rematch from Christmas Day tonight, and Jamal Murray should be excited because he has thrived in this matchup.
Murray has averaged 29 points per game against the Warriors over the last two seasons while slicing and dicing their defense. He’s generated quality looks from 3 when he wants to but also drives and works the pick and roll with Jokic to perfection.
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While the Warriors are managing without Draymond Green, their defense has taken a significant hit over the last two weeks by allowing 118.4 points per 100 possessions. While they can manage most matchups without Green, his absence in defending the pick and roll will open up more opportunities for Murray.
I’ll take him to go over 21.5 points.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points
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