There are only 4 games on Thursday's NBA slate, but our staff of experts still went down the list and identified all the best betting value on the board tonight. Our best bets for Friday, Nov. 22 can be found here.
Our basketball betting experts have looked over the odds and identified 6 NBA picks for today's contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Thursday, Nov. 21.
NBA Best Bets Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Hornets
LaMelo Ball burned many of us (including myself) two nights ago. I had his points + rebounds + assists over, and he missed by more than 20, because he was benched in the second half of the Hornets loss to the Nets. That was the only loss in a 5-1 night for me (and now that I've said that, I'll probably go 1-5 tonight, right?)
I like this as a bounce back spot for both Charlotte and LaMelo, though.
He's gotten over 30 or more points in four of his last six outings. He had 25 against Detroit at home in a one point win earlier this month, shooting 10-for-23 and 5-of-12 from deep, which was the game that preceded this six-game run.
Still, I'd be surprised if his game results similar to his flop on Tuesday. If this is "fool me twice, shame on me" then so be it, but I'm back on LaMelo in this game.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 25.5 Points (-128)
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Pistons vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
Guess what prop is back?! With Jalen Duren’s return, Tim Hardaway Jr. has seen his rebound chances fall off a cliff. Hardaway recorded 3, 5, and 4 rebounds in the game Duren got hurt and missed.
In the games with him this season, he’s averaged 1.1 rebound on 2.3 chances. In these last two games with Duren again, he’s recorded 1 rebound in each on 3 and 2 chances.
The opportunities simply are not there with Duren on the floor. I’ll grab under 2.5 rebounds.
Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 2.5 Rebounds (-135)
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Pistons vs. Hornets
The Pistons have the highest rate of unders in the NBA so far this season, with their games falling short of the total in 69% of contests. The Hornets are close, playing to the under in nearly 65% of games so far.
Last time these two met up, it was over two weeks ago in Charlotte. That game went under the total, with both teams combining for only 215 points. I'm just playing the trends here.
The Pistons are 24th in offense, and ninth in defense right now, playing at the 11th slowest pace in the league. The Hornets are 23rd in offense, 19th in defense, and play at the 10th slowest pace, despite my argument that they should be playing faster than they do.
This game points under, though in the NBA things don't always go according to plan, I lean that this will.
Pick: Under 221.5 (-115)
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Jazz vs. Spurs
Victor Wembanyama will miss his third straight game as the San Antonio Spurs host the UtahJazz on Thursday night.
The good news for the Spurs is they’re currently on a three-game homestand, so they have a better chance of staying afloat until the Frenchman returns to action.
At home, the Spurs are 6-3 and coming off an impressive 110-104 victory over the Thunder. Against OKC, San Antonio did a much better job on the boards, grabbing 46 rebounds to limit the Thunder to just 12 second-chance points.
With Wemby sidelined, his teammates have to pick up the slack on the boards, and Julian Champagnie has done his part, especially when San Antonio is at home.
This season, Champagnie has a median of six rebounds at home while averaging 6.11 in this spot. His rebounding prop is available at 5.5, which more likely reflects his season average for home than away games. However, he’s averaging almost two fewer rebounds (4.3 vs. 6.1) when he's on the road.
Utah ranks in the bottom-half of the league in rebounding, and given Champagnie’s increase in minutes from last season (19.8 to 28.3), this prop is too good to pass up with the odds listed at +115.
Pick: Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)
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Jazz vs. Spurs
By Joe Dellera
John Collins has been tremendous in the absence of Walker Kessler for this Utah Jazz team. Collins has been in the starting lineup lately, and in those contests, he's played roughly 30 minutes per game.
Tonight, the Jazz play the Spurs, who will be without Victor Wembanyama to defend the interior and face up opposite Collins. While Collins struggled a bit against Zubac and the Clippers a few games ago, this is a spot where he can excel. Without Wemby, the Spurs have allowed big games to the Center position.
Without Kessler, Collins has averaged 20.8 points per game, some of this is skewed by two big games, but he still has 16+ in 4/5 without Kessler on the season season.
Collins can be an excellent scoring threat when given the opportunity and this number is simply too low against a Spurs team without Wemby. I’ll back Collins to exceed 16.5 points.
Pick: John Collins Over 16.5 Points (-103)
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Magic vs. Lakers
By Matt Moore
Let's start with the spot. There's no travel here since the Magic played the Clippers last night, but it's a back to back regardless. Eastern Conference teams on a back to back as 'dogs on a West Coast road trip are 50-61-4 (45%) ATS since 2014.
I make this line double digits; it's not that the Magic are bad, but while they've won games without Paolo Banchero the overall underlying metrics aren't as good. The Lakers are also an absolute wagon at home this season, undefeated SU and 5-2 ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin.
The Magic are still a little undersized defensively without Wendell Carter Jr. So, I think we'll see the Knecht Mania continue, AD thrive, and the Lakers roll again tonight.
Pick: Lakers -4.5 (-110)
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