After an exciting couple of days of Emirates Cup action, the NBA regular season resumes with a relatively light slate this Thursday, with a total of only 3 matchups on the docket for today. However, our staff of basketball experts still dug into the latest odds and identified the best betting value on the board for all three games scheduled for tonight.
Our betting experts have looked over the odds and made 4 NBA picks for today's matchups. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Thursday, December 12.
NBA Best Bets, Predictions, Picks, Thursday, Dec. 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Celtics
By Joe Dellera
Jaylen Brown has absolutely cooked the Pistons of late, and now gets a matchup where he’s received plenty of rest coming in.
Brown is averaging 25 points per game on the season, and even though he has seen a dip with Kristaps Porzingis rejoining the lineup, down to about 22 points per game, this is a strong matchup for him against a Detroit team that’s been abused by Wings.
Brown has cleared this number (23.5) in five straight matchups against Detroit.
Jayson Tatum is on the injury report, listed as questionable, and if he sits today, it would give him more than a full week off before the Celtics’ next game on Sunday.
When Tatum sits, Brown’s numbers skyrocket. Brown has played 18 games over the last few seasons without Tatum, and he’s exceeded 23.5 points in 17 of them with the lone miss ringing in at 22.
This is a strong matchup, even if Tatum plays, but it becomes elite in the event he sits. I’ll grab Brown over 23.5 points now.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points (-108)
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Raptors vs. Heat
With the semifinals now set for the Emirates Cup, the NBA returns to action with the Raptors visiting the Heat in one of three matchups on the Thursday card.
Toronto enters the contest on a three-game losing streak, as it now has the second-worst win percentage (.280) in the Eastern Conference with a 7-18 mark. To make matters worse, the Raptors will also be without their second-leading scorer, Scottie Barnes, due to an ankle injury.
Thus, it’s unsurprising that Miami is as high as a 10.5-point favorite after opening at -8.5. If the market projects the Heat to win comfortably by double-digits, it could be an opportunity for Miami to get some of their players extra minutes.
Terry Rozier is one player who could see a more significant role, considering he’s averaging fewer minutes (31.5 vs. 28.6) compared to the previous campaign. As a result, we’ve seen his scoring drop from 16.4 points to 12.1, with his rebounding down from 4.2 to 3.7.
Yet, DraftKings lists Rozier’s points + rebounds prop at 12.5, despite the Heat guard going over that projection in 15 of 20 (75%) games thus far this season.
While the sportsbooks may know something we don’t, there’s also a chance that this line is an oversight on their part. With an average of 15.75 points + rebounds and a median of 15, this prop is simply too good to pass up.
Moreover, Rozier has also exceeded this number in each of his last four meetings against Toronto. The over is undoubtedly worth a look here, and I would play his odds up to -135.
Pick: Terry Rozier Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
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Pistons vs. Celtics
By Alex Hinton
At just 21 years old, Jalen Duren is already one of the NBA's best rebounders. Last season, he averaged 11.6 rebounds per game and he is capable of grabbing 20 rebounds in a blink. However, his average has dropped to 8.9 per game this season.
Under a new head coach, Duren is playing five less minutes per game. He has played 25 minutes or less in each of the last four games. Despite being taller than fellow center Isaiah Stewart, Duren is a worse defender, and the Pistons defense has been better with Stewart on the floor this season.
Playing better defense should be an emphasis for Detroit tonight, considering that Boston has scored 124 and 130 points in two games against the Pistons this season.
Boston is third in offensive rating this season, and because of how good its offense is, it is a difficult matchup for rebounds. Boston is allowing the sixth-fewest rebounds per game and the second-fewest to centers.
Additionally, Duren has gone under this line in each of his last four games. If his minutes remain capped, that trend will continue.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 8.5 Rebounds (+105)
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Kings vs. Pelicans
By Nick Parsons
These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle here on Thursday night.
The Kings are now 12-13 after back-to-back wins. They've seen the total go over in four of their last five contests, but when they played the Pelicans last April, they fell by a score of 105-98.
While I do think these sides will put a few more points on the board this evening than they did in their previous affair, I'm once again expecting another overall defensive battle in their first matchup this season.
The Pelicans are just 5-20 after their most recent loss at San Antonio (L, 121-116). Note though, New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last 10 games after playing to 5+ straight overs.
The Pelicans continue to struggle with consistency from game-to-game due to several key injuries. I think this particular contest finally sets up to be much more of a defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are currently projecting. I’ll take the under.
Pick: Under 231.5 (-110)
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