On Thursday night, the Pacers beat the Bucks for their third division win of the season. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 54 points for Milwaukee without Damian Lillard, yet the Pacers came back to win late. That gives them a 1-0 lead in their four-game set for the tiebreaker should the teams finish tied for the division or playoff seeding.
That may sound crazy; this is the Bucks with Damian Lillard, who have won the division five straight times. But while the Pacers have become League Pass darlings and might be the most fun team to watch in the league, the market still treats them like they haven't moved their preseason priors substantially.
Here is my NBA Bet today and why I believe a Pacers future has serious value.
Pacers to Make the Playoffs (-130 via FanDuel)
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The Resume
The Pacers have the seventh-best schedule-adjusted offense this season, per DunksAndThrees.com. They have the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted defense, which is why their overall net rating at that site is poor. Non-schedule-adjusted, they are the No. 1 offense and No. 25 defense, so slightly better. At Cleaning The Glass, their Pythagorean expected win total is 50.4. That would clearly put them into the postseason and, only factoring this hot start, put them in position for home court in the first round.
I have Indiana power-rated as a 3.5-point favorite against an average team on a neutral court, which projects them for 50.4 wins and closer to 52 when factoring in their actual win-loss record so far this season.
So, the numbers like Indiana.
The market still had the Pacers at a small plus number to make the playoffs before Thursday night's island game performance. It's now -130 or shorter in most markets and continuing to creep towards -150.
At -130, the implied odds are 56%. But I have a trend that will make laying that 30 cents seem like a bargain.
The Trend
I've built a record of all win total results going back the last 10 seasons, using data from SportsOddsHistory.com and then cross-referencing various statistical measures.
Top-10 offenses have made the playoffs at a record of 88-12 for 88%. Top-five offenses have made the playoffs at a rate of 49-1 (92%).
Most of those offenses have been teams with decent or great defenses. But the trends sustain even when we look at great offense-bad defense teams. Teams with a top-10 offense and bottom-10 defense have made the playoffs at a rate of 16-5. Top five defenses with a bottom-10 defense have gone 9-1 in making the playoffs to missing, and top-five offenses with a bottom-five defense have still made in four out of five instances.
The Process
So, the question really comes down to whether you believe Indiana can finish as a top-10 offense.
To that end, no player in their rotation with over 100 minutes played so far has an on-court offensive rating below 117. The league average this season is 112.7. The Pacers' offensive rating without maestro Tyrese Haliburton on the floor is 112.8. They play (ever-so-slightly) above-league-average offense when Haliburton isn't on the floor.
The danger lies in injuries and regression. The Pacers generate great looks mostly built on at-rim and three-point frequency. They're a true Morey-Ball team (coined after Sixers GM Daryl Morey's Houston approach regarding how the offense distributed shots). That's sustainable. But they're also shooting above expectation by three percentage points based on where they shoot from. That's not much of an outlier; they have incredible shooters like Buddy Hield on the roster.
If injuries hit, though, their defense won't be able to hold them up, and their margin for error decreases. That's the same for every team. The broader question is if they hit a lull or trade Buddy Hield (after extension talks fell apart last summer). Those changes would hurt.
However, there's a decent chance that their defense stabilizes to get them into the teens, too. If the Pacers get the defense from 25th to even 20th, that will move them closer to their goal because their current offensive floor is impossibly high.
Additional Bets
I also bet the Pacers to win the Central division at 25-1. The Bucks have had enough issues from health, to defense to coaching for there to be real concerns. Additionally, the Cavaliers continue to struggle to generate offense, and the Pacers being 3-1 in-division compared to the Bucks and Cavaliers being 1-3 combined is a more significant lead than you'd think, especially with tiebreakers.
If you want to play the short-term, Haliburton is 40-1 to win In-Season Tournament MVP. Indiana is 1-0 with a +5 point differential, tied for second in the East. "It's just one game" doesn't hit the same way when you realize that's 25% of the total in-season tournament games. Haliburton, averaging 24 points and 12 assists per game on 50-40-94 splits, is in a great position to sneak into a Finals matchup.
Indiana isn't a title contender; their defense is too bad for them to be a serioius threat in the East. But they have the makings of the young team that everyone looks up after the All-Star Break and realizes they're in line for a playoff spot by margin after a win total of just 38.5 at close in the preseason market.
