We're kicking off the week with 10 NBA games on Monday night, including a key matchup between the Nuggets and Bulls at 8 p.m. ET.
Our NBA analysts are looking at three matchups on tonight's slate and are betting two full game totals, one team total and one first half moneyline across three games.
You can find their analysis for those three games and their best bets for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Charlotte Hornets
Kenny Ducey: The Sixers have played great defense since Joel Embiid returned from injury, and continue to play slow-paced basketball. Naturally, against a depleted opponent, we’d take the under. Right?
Well, not in this case. The Hornets’ defense may actually be so bad that the Sixers could explode in the scoring column without an abundance of offensive possessions in the worst-case scenario. In the best-case scenario, the Hornets bring the speed of this game up and turn this one into a shootout.
That’s what I see happening. The Hornets are second in pace and second-to-last in defense this season, and they’ve been absolutely gashed inside.
Philly’s got a fella by the name of Joel Embiid, who should absolutely feast on a team allowing 65.6% shooting in the restricted area and 45.1% shooting in the surrounding paint — which are both bottom-eight marks.
Charlotte is also missing its center, Mason Plumlee, and another big in Jalen McDaniels, making this matchup even better for Embiid.
The only hang-up here would be the Hornets’ offense against the Sixers’ defense, but considering their plan seems to be based around chucking up threes, I could see Charlotte chipping in enough here to get us well past the total — the Hornets hit a season-high 17 3s on Sunday.
I’ll also add that the Hornets seem to be especially weak defensively on the second night of back-to-backs, with the over going 4-1 in those scenarios. I think this number is ripe for the plucking.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons
Brandon Anderson: Remember when you were a kid and you made a huge, giant mess and you knew exactly what you were doing but just let it happen, and then a parent or babysitter came along and scolded you with a "LOOK what you DID" and just made you sit there in the stench of a mess you created for yourself?
That's what happened to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the last four days.
LOOK what you DID, Thunder. You got absolutely lambasted by the Grizzlies, 152-79, the biggest margin of defeat in NBA history. That's 75 years of history!
The Thunder embarrassed themselves in Memphis. They let the Grizzlies hit 72% effective field goal percentage, and when they did miss an occasional shot, Memphis rebounded 43% of their own misses.
The Thunder lost by 15 or more in every quarter and finished with an 83 Offensive Rating against what had been the league's worst defense, that is, until this game. Realize that OKC's full 82-game season Net Rating drops by almost a full point with this loss. That's what happens you lose by 73 and embarrass yourself.
That's the mess Oklahoma City created for itself, and now the poor Thunder have been left to sit in that stench for four agonizing days. It is OKC's longest break of the season and it couldn't have come at a worse time as the Thunder are left to stew in their awfulness.
But it does mean Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be back, and it also means this team should come out pissed and ready to play with some pride. And that's really the entire angle on this pick. I'm backing OKC's pride.
The Thunder aren't very good, but they aren't THAT bad, and the Pistons aren't that great either. The Pistons have two fewer wins than OKC and had ranked behind the Thunder in Net Rating until the Memphis blowout too.
I'm playing the first-half moneyline, backing the Thunder to play with some pride and respond to that ugly, embarrassing loss. Oklahoma City is a road underdog, but I like them at any plus number.
Let's see this young team respond to what they did.
Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors
Raheem Palmer: The Golden State Warriors have the league’s top Defensive Rating, allowing opposing teams to score just 101.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass. They’ll be facing a Magic team that struggles to score efficiently, scoring just 101.9 points per 100 possessions — 28th among NBA teams.
Over the past two weeks their offense has slipped even further as they’re scoring just 98.6 points per 100 possessions. The Magic are bottom five in scoring from every area of the floor, including the rim (60.7-25th), midrange (36.8%-27th) and 3-point range (32.8%-26th). They also rank 26th in half court offense (86.2 ppp) and dead last in transition points per possession, so it’s tough to imagine the Magic putting up a solid offensive performance in this spot.
While they’ve cracked 100 in their last two games against the Rockets and Nuggets, they scored less than 100 points in the previous five games. The Warriors offense could take this over but I’m confident we’ll see the Warriors defense do enough to keep this a lower scoring game.
I’ll play the under 218 with my model making this game 211.5 and also take the Magic team total under 101
