The Atlanta Hawks finally fell back to earth after a less than stellar performance against the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals.
They head home for Game 3 and are hoping to get another superstar performance from their leader Trae Young to grab a 2-1 lead in the series.
Our NBA crew is making three bets in tonight's matchup — one spread bet, one bet on the total and one prop.
You can find their picks and analysis for tonight's game below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Raheem Palmer: I’m really big on historical comparisons and the best one I can think of in regards to this series between the Bucks and Hawks is the 2001 NBA Finals between the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers.
Like Allen Iverson, Trae Young led his team to a shocking Game 1 upset as massive underdogs behind 48 points, but in reality the Hawks have very little chance of defeating the Bucks in this series.
They have no answers for Giannis Antetokounmpo who might as well be prime Shaquille O’Neal. In many other postseason series, we've seen Antetokounmpo's flaws come back to bite him, against the the Hawks he’s averaging 29.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists.
With the Bucks shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range in Game 2 and adjusting their pick-and-roll coverages on Young, I’m just not seeing how the Hawks can keep up. You add in the loss of DeAndre Hunter in addition to Bogdan Bogdanovic being banged up and it feels like the Hawks are drawing dead.
These teams are in two different weight classes. Back the Bucks to win and cover Game 3 on the road while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Brandon Anderson: You have to feel for Bogdan Bogdanovic who struggled through injuries to start his season and has been so good down the stretch for the Hawks.
I thought Bogdanovic was Atlanta's best player over the final six weeks of the season, and he was outstanding against the Knicks in Round 1 and early against Philadelphia, as a consistent scorer who provided quality handling and secondary creation when opponents were focused on limiting Trae Young.
Bogdanovic continues to be listed as questionable each day with a knee injury, and though he's playing through and starting every game, his production has fallen off a cliff.
Just take a look at Bogdanovic's first nine playoff games with the Hawks vs. his last five, after the knee injury:
- First nine games: 16.4 points | 5.9 rebounds | 3.0 assists | 37.4 minutes
- Last five games: 5.8 points | 2.0 rebounds | 2.0 assists | 23.4 minutes
Ouch. Over those first nine playoff games, Bogdanovic had scored double-digit points in all but one of them with at least four rebounds in every game, along with at least 33 minutes on the court.
In these last five games, he's failed to reach nine points or four rebounds at any points, nor has he played 29 minutes in any outing.
Usually it's better to focus on season-long numbers and not fall victim to recency bias, but this is a case of recognizing what injuries have robbed Bogdanovic of his ability to put up good numbers.
His shooting volume is way down these last five games, and he's making an ugly 30% of his shots with just 15% 3-pointers and very little else. He's failed to crack 12 points + rebounds + assists in all five games, averaging under 10 in this stretch.
I don't like it, but I have to play the under here. The production isn't there, and the minutes are steadily waning. I'm playing the combo prop because it gives me the highest line and a chance to fade Bogdanovic overall, plus I'm getting plus juice here too.
I think he tops out around 10 to 12 PRA again, and I'll fade Bogdanovic here to -115.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Justin Phan: Both Game 1 and Game 2 of this Eastern Conference finals series have been played at a good Pace (100.5 and 102 respectively). The Milwaukee Bucks' shot quality has been pristine especially in Game 2.
The Atlanta Hawks shot just 3-of-18 on wide open 3-point tries in Game 2, according to NBA Advanced Stats. They should make the necessary adjustments to the Bucks’ adjusted pick-and-roll defense on Sunday.
BetMGM has the total at 223.5 and I like the over up to 224.
