We're four days into 2023 and already we've had three 50-point games, a few wild finishes and some lopsided scores. What will Wednesday's massive 12-game slate bring?
Our crew of betting experts is diving deep into tonight's slate with bets on half of the games being played tonight, including player props, first half spreads, totals and more.
Check out their expert picks and predictions for Wednesday night's slate below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Munaf Manji: The Sixers will head to Indiana tonight to take on the Pacers and I love Embiid to clean up the glass tonight against the Pacers.
The Pacers on the season are allowing opposing centers to grab 16 rebounds per game. Embiid has been dominate on the glass against the Pacers throughout his career.
In fact, Embiid has grabbed 11 or more rebounds against the Pacers in nine of his last 11 games including games in that span where he grabbed 20 or more rebounds.
Lastly, Indiana ranks 27th in opponent rebounds per game allowing close to 46 per game and rank 25th in team rebounding percentage. Even though 'The Process' is listed as questionable, I’ll take the over for Embiid here in a favorable matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Orlando Magic
Chris Baker: Horrible spot for the Thunder who are coming off an emotional win over the best team in the league and now have to fly cross country to Orlando to face the Magic who have a four day rest advantage.
This number is only +1 because of the significant amount of Magic players out due to suspension (Wagner bros and Admiral Schofield), but that is the beautiful thing about this Magic team, they are loaded with depth. The Magic only have nine players available for this game but most of these guys are proven NBA contributors. Between Fultz and Cole Anthony in the backcourt, and Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. in the frontcourt, I think the Magic have enough talent to beat this young Thunder team.
The Magic defense also does a very good job of limiting rim looks and transition scoring as they rank 10th in opponent rim rate and 9th in opponent transition offensive rating. Limiting easy rim looks is crucial when facing this Thunder team that ranks 3rd in offensive rim rate on the year. OKC also ranks 3rd in pace and 8th in transition rate so the fact that the Magic rank 9th in transition defense is huge for their chances in this spot.
I’ve been high on this Magic team all year and this is a great spot to back them with Wendell Carter Jr returning back to the lineup as they should be able to dominate an undersized Thunder team in the paint.
The Thunder defense ranks 28th in rim rate on the year and that is going to be a huge issue against this Magic team that loves to attack the rim. The Thunder defense survived last night against a Celtics offense that ranks bottom-7 in rim rate but that will not be the case against this 12th ranked Magic team.
Ultimately, I just think this a great spot where a rested Magic team can shorten their rotation and rally together to beat a young Thunder squad that is coming off a highly emotional victory over the Celtics.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Hornets
Joe Dellera: Let’s have a plus money prop for this Wednesday slate. The Grizzlies take on the Hornets who have been an absolute gold mine for opposing big men props. While many will focus on Steven Adams, I believe his lines are a bit inflated due to the recent matchups against Plumlee.
I’m focusing on Jaren Jackson Jr — a significant mismatch for the Hornets. JJJ has the length and versatility to bother the Hornets on the defensive end while being much more talented than their big men on the inside.
Additionally, he can stretch the floor offensively and force both Mason Plumlee and PJ Washington to the perimeter which is not a defensive strongpoint for either of them. While I like Jackson to make over 1.5 3s today (+135), I like this combo prop of 22.5 Points + Rebounds and double-double.
While Adams is flat out better than Plumlee, the Grizzlies may elect to limit his minutes (which they have — Adams plays 21.7 minutes in three games against the Hornets the last two seasons compared to 26.5 mins per game this season) to further open up the paint and be able to run five-out on offense with Jaren Jackson Jr. being more than enough of an interior presence to hold down the Grizzlies’ defense on the opposite side of the floor.
In JJJ’s two games vs the Grizzlies last season he recorded one game of 19 points and 6 rebounds and another of 18 points and 10 rebounds. I love his combo prop and would also take a sprinkle, up to a quarter of a unit, on his double-double in what should be a fast-paced game.
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: This might seem like a crazy number to lay in the first half, but the Knicks have been dominant to start games this season, boasting a 27-11 record against the spread in the first half. If we look at just home games, that record improves to 14-5 against the spread.
Not to mention, these two teams played each other last Thursday and the Spurs embarrassed the Knicks, coming out the gate hotter than they have, possibly all season, dropping a 38-point first quarter on New York who were without RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson.
While not a crazy bad schedule spot, the Knicks were in the middle of a Texas road trip in which they went 1-2 straight up and 2-1 against the spread against the Mavericks, Spurs, and Rockets, respectively.
After their beatdown by San Antonio the Knicks responded with a 102-83 shellacking of the Phoenix Suns without Devin Booker at home. Brunson is absent from the injury report for Wednesday, while Barrett remains sidelined.
This line seems fishy for a team that lost less than a week ago. I like the Knicks for the full game as well, but I'll stick with them in the first half, where they've been dominant all season. I like them at -5, but anything more and a rogue 3-pointer or a stupid foul could get us in trouble.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
Matt Moore: I make this number 223, a full 12 points under the total.
Here are some trends:
- Unders in Bulls home games are 11-7
- Unders in Nets away games are 10-9
The Nets are the fourth best halfcourt defense in the league; their weakness is transition defense but the Bulls are 20th in points added in transition per 100 possessions at Cleaning The Glass.
The Bulls are 29th in opponent defensive possession length and the Nets are 21st in offensive possession length.
Both teams use a healthy amount of switch defense and while Chicago has done well vs. switch defenses this season, Brooklyn's combination of length and athleticism should slow them down.
This number projects an absolute barnburner and neither team really has that profile this season.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Editor's Note: The Los Angeles Lakers have announced that LeBron James and Lonnie Walker IV will rest in Wednesday's game against the Miami Heat. For updated injury news, be sure to check out our FantasyLabs news page.
Moore: I can't get to a spot where this Heat team should be favored by this much on the road vs. the Lakers.
They should have been favored vs. the Rockets and Spurs on this road trip, and vs. the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard. That line closed Heat -1.
So the assumption here is that the Clippers without Leonard are three points better than the Lakers without Anthony Davis (assuming LeBron James, who is questionable, plays). I get that sounds logical, but in reality, the Lakers and Clippers are pretty similarly rated without Leonard.
I make this Lakers +3 on a neutral court and as a home dog this season the Lakers are 5-3-1 ATS with a +6 ATS differential. The Lakers are surprisingly a little underrated.
Also, just to top it off, the Heat came off a victory to the Clippers Monday and had Tuesday night off in Los Angeles. You know what they say: LA Nightlife is undefeated.
