It's a light night in the NBA, with just five games on Thursday's slate.
Our NBA analysts have zeroed in on tonight's two national TV matchups — Celtics vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Suns — and are betting the spread and two player props in those games.
Read below for their betting analysis and best bets for Thursday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Roberto Arguello: The Heat are 6-1 because of their stingy defense that leads the league in Defensive Rating at 98.6 (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass). However, the Heat also have the best Offensive Rating (115.4), Spread Differential (+13.6) and Point Differential (+16.8, per Cleaning The Glass).
The 21st-ranked Celtics offense is looking to find itself, but I won’t be betting on them doing so on the second night of a back-to-back on the road against the best defense in the NBA. Furthermore, the Celtics are coming off a performance where they scored just 92 points last night against the lowly Magic, who have the second-worst defensive rating (113.4) in the NBA.
The Heat have been head and shoulders above everyone else in the NBA so far this season when Kyle Lowry has been available. Not only have the Heat won all six games Lowry has played in, but they have also won each game by double digits.
Expect this trend to continue on Thursday against the Celtics as the Heat win and cover as six-point favorites. The Celtics offense is relatively easy to defend with Tatum and Brown taking too many contested jumpers, and the Celtics bench doesn’t have the ammunition to keep up with Herro and the Heat.
I like the Heat at -6 at Caesar’s and will bet them confidently down to -7.5 for one unit.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: Duncan Robinson absolutely loves playing the Boston Celtics. The numbers tell the story. He averages 17.2 PPG against the Celtics, his third highest against any team, and gets up almost 10 3-point attempts per game. The way Boston defends, Robinson just isn't a priority defensively and he's going to play a bunch and get his shots up.
So far this season, Robinson is struggling. He's scoring just 9.9 PPG and shooting only 37.5% from the field and just 34.5% from behind the arc. I'm not worried. Robinson isn't a high volume shooter so those numbers can swing in a hurry, and there's little question he's an elite shooter who can get hot at any time. And he sure loves to get hot against Boston.
Besides, this line is just too low. The last two seasons, Robinson averaged 13.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. That's 18.2 points + rebounds + assists (PRA), far above this line. Robinson cleared 15.5 PRA in 45 of 72 games last year, hitting this over 62.5% of the time. Heck, even has he's struggled this year, he's still gone over 15.5 PRA in five of seven games.
Last season, Robinson scored at least 13 points in 39 of 72 games and went over this PRA line every single time he did that. He doesn't get a ton of rebounds or assists, but he gets enough — and with the 3-point volume so high, that's enough.
If you really want to get crazy on Plus Juice Day, there's another Robinson prop I'm eyeing. You can play him to go over 1.5 assists at +170 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. He's went over that line in 37 of 72 games last year, and he's over in three of seven this season. It's basically a coin flip, totally unpredictable, but wouldn't you flip a coin for +170 odds?
For the column, we'll stick with the more stable PRA and hope Robinson stays hot against Boston. He's gone over 15.5 PRA in all six career games against the Celtics. Let's hope he makes it 7-for-7.
Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
Joe Dellera: The Rockets take on the Suns in a matchup that has significant blowout potential. The Rockets are a likely lottery team and even though the Suns do not look nearly as good as they did during the Playoffs they should be able to handle this Rockets team.
Devin Booker is fresh off celebrating his girlfriend’s birthday yesterday (Kendall Jenner for those that are unaware) and is now tasked with securing 31.5 points and rebounds just 24 hours later.
It’s never fun to bet against star players’ performance, but that’s exactly what I’m asking you to do here. This is a number that Book has struggled to reach over the last two seasons. In fact, he’s hit this in just 26 of 73 regular season games dating back to last season and just one of six this season.
While Book is fully capable of going off, his median output on this line is just 28. It’s too high, and in a game that could get out of hand quick I’ll take the under.
