One of the underrated great aspects of the NBA is the fact that a single game on a random Monday in March can be one of the most important games of the season. And you never know exactly how important it is until it gets closer.
That's the main storyline to watch tonight with the Denver Nuggets facing the Philadelphia 76ers in a battle between the two NBA MVP frontrunners.
But that's not the only storyline on Monday's slate, which is the other great aspect of the NBA. Our analysts are diving into three other games worth betting on tonight's slate. You can check out their game analysis and best bets for Monday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Raheem Palmer: Situational spots are the best ways to gain an advantage when betting the NBA and there’s no better situational angle than capitalizing on a the Los Angeles Clippers playing a back-to-back after they overcame an 18-point deficit on Sunday. Although I’m not interested in playing a side in this matchup, there's an opportunity to benefit from a team with tired legs that may struggle to score.
The Clippers rank 26th in Offensive Rating, scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions and they’ll be fighting an uphill battle playing on zero days rest where they see a drop off in their scoring output putting up 106 points per 100 possessions. The Cavaliers also struggle to score as they’re just 19th in Offensive Rating, scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions this season.
Outside of Darius Garland, the Cavs lack playmaking and they’ll also be without Jarrett Allen — out indefinitely with a fractured finger — their second leading scorer at 16.1 points per game. It’s no surprise this offense has slipped to 23rd over the past two weeks, showing no signs of improving.
While both offenses aren’t very good, the Clippers and the Cavaliers have two of the best defenses in the league, ranking seventh (108) and fourth (109.2) in Defensive Rating respectively. Neither team plays at a fast tempo either: The Cavaliers rank 25th in Pace (96.5) and 29th in Offensive Length of Possession (15.5 seconds) while the Clippers are 15th in Pace (98.5) and 17th in Offensive Length of Possession (14.7 seconds).
When you combine two struggling offenses, two elite defenses and a one team on a back-to-back, it's tough to imagine a high-scoring affair. My model makes this game 204 so at 212, I think there’s some value on the under.
Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings
Brandon Anderson: It was a rough start to the season for De'Aaron Fox, but things have really turned around lately.
Early on, Fox was struggling to find his game, and it looked like the Kings were beginning to turn the keys to the kingdom over to Tyrese Haliburton. Between Haliburton and rookie Davion Mitchell, Fox just didn't have as much time on the ball and his scoring and efficiency fell out.
Then Fox missed a couple weeks at the end of January and start of February, finally got healthy, and came back to a new team with Domantas Sabonis in for the departed Haliburton, and suddenly he looks like an All Star.
Since returning from that injury break, Fox has been on fire. He's scoring 29.1 PPG over his last 14 games with at least 20 points in every game and at least 24 in all but one. That's obviously a pretty stark departure from his 21.0 PPG average before this stretch, so it's taking the books awhile to catch up — and they're still not there yet.
Even with this inflated line, Fox has gone over the 25.5 in 11 of these last 14 games, hitting the over 79% of the time, and two of those unders he missed by only one shot. Chicago's defense still isn't the same, especially at guard, while shorthanded, so Fox should continue his scoring streak.
I'll play Fox's points over to -140 and look for another big night.
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Joe Dellera: Happy birthday to the GOAT shooter, Stephen Curry, who turns 34 years old today. While Curry has cooled a bit and is coming off just an eight-point effort against the Bucks, there’s reason to expect him to heat up.
First, Curry gets the best birthday present with the return of Draymond Green. When Green is on the floor, he works as a perfect complement to Curry as both a facilitator and a floor spacer. This season, Curry scores 26.9 points with Green compared to 23.8 points per game without him.
Additionally, this line is a bit low against a Wizards defense that ranks 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rating and has allowed opponents to shoot 37.7% from 3-point range since Jan 1., third-worst mark in the league.
Not only has Curry gone over his prop line of 23.5 points in six of his last 10 games, from a narrative perspective, Curry balls out on his birthday.
In six birthday games, Curry has cleared this points line in his last five with totals of 32, 29, 27, 25, and 27. I love this spot and expect Curry to celebrate his birthday with plenty of buckets.
