On Saturday night in the NBA, our team of betting analysts are focused on two profitable trends this season.
Fade the Pelicans and Timberwolves.
New Orleans has lost nine straight games and has just one win this season. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are coming off a comfortable win over the Lakers but now face the Clippers on the back end of a back-to-back set.
Check out our best picks for Saturday night in the Association below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Raheem Palmer: The New Orleans Pelicans are terrible. There’s no nicer way to put it for a team which is 1-12 and has lost nine straight games by an average of 12.3 points per game.
The Pelicans have been dealing with the loss of Brandon Ingram, who has missed the last seven games with a hip injury, but it’s not like they were that good with him in the lineup. This team is 26th in Offensive Rating (102.3) and 29th in Defensive Rating (114.3), and New Orleans is equally bad at defending both the paint and the perimeter.
The Pelicans give up the third-highest field goal percentage at the rim (69.1%) and the third-highest field goal percentage from behind the arc (38.3%). They are dead last in points per play in the half court and they can’t stop anyone in transition, an area where the Memphis Grizzlies thrive at with Ja Morant.
With the Grizzlies coming off a 119-94 blowout loss to the Suns, I think there’s some value in backing them here in this spot. My model makes this game Grizzlies -5.5 so at -4, I’ll be backing them.
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Anderson: If you haven't caught any basketball to start the season, great news — neither have the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans are just horrendous right now. They're 1-12 with a lone win over the Timberwolves. They rank dead last in Defensive Rating at Basketball Reference and second to last in Net Rating. Zion Williamson is still nowhere to be found, and Brandon Ingram has missed half of New Orleans’ games and looks set to be out again tonight.
That just doesn't leave much talent in New Orleans. Jonas Valanciunas is fine. Devonte' Graham has been decent. Nickeil Alexander-Walker looks like the best young guard, mostly because other options like Kira Lewis have been so terrible.
The Grizzlies defense has barely been any better, just one spot above New Orleans in the Defensive Ratings, but that should get a boost if Dillon Brooks is able to return tonight. It might get a boost anyway just by playing this pathetic Pelicans offense.
The Grizzlies are 6-6, but all six of those wins are by 11 or fewer points, while four of the six losses are by 25 or more. That spells the profile of a team that's struggling more than the record would indicate, but it's also reflective of another metric you're not seeing: strength of schedule. Memphis has faced the toughest schedule in the league so far, and all of those big losses came against teams near the top of the standings.
The Pelicans are not that. I trust Memphis to take care of business with a low line. Both teams played last night, but the Grizz were blown out by Phoenix while the Pels battled the Nets all the way to the wire. That might make you think New Orleans is due for another win, but it just tells me they're the more tired team here.
I'll play the Grizzlies to -4.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Clippers
Matthew Trebby: So far this season, it’s been no Kawhi Leonard, no problem for the Clippers.
While LA isn’t a championship contender right now without the two-time Finals MVP, it’s at 7-4 and riding red hot of late with six straight outright wins, including four covers.
This will already be the third matchup between the Clippers and Timberwolves this season, with LA winning twice in Minnesota by eight and 20 points earlier in November. The Timberwolves will try to get on the board against the Clippers to finish a four-game road trip, including three out on the West Coast.
Minnesota is 3-8 on the season against the spread (ATS) and has only covered once in its last seven games. That one was a victory on Friday night over a Lakers team that is struggling without LeBron James.
Coming off a blowout win over the Lakers, the Timberwolves are going to run into a Clippers team that plays hard and has a top-five defense, according to Defensive Rating, in the NBA. It’s a tough matchup for a team that ranks 25th in Offensive Rating.
I won’t complicate things here and will back the Clippers on Saturday night. I’d play it to -7.5, but BetMGM was offering -6.5 as of Saturday morning.
