The NBA Playoffs continue on Tuesday night with three pivotal Game 5s. Our Action Network NBA analysts have four best bets queued up, including two bets each on Hawks-Heat and Timberwolves-Grizzlies. Check out their analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: Trae Young is not living his best life in this series.
Miami's defense has completely befuddled Young. He has an awful 86 Offensive Rating for the series and hasn't been able to get going as a scorer or as a passer. Remember, Young led the NBA in both points and assists in the regular season, but he's been terrible against the Heat with just 16.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game.
Needless to say, those numbers are way down from Young's averages, even with a hefty minutes load. That's why we'll just keep fading Trae by playing his points, rebounds, and assists combo under. Young has gone under his PRA line in seven of eight Heat games this season. The books are slowly moving this line down, enough that Young did go over this particular line in Game 2 by one, but it's still in our favor.
He has yet to record double-digit assists in eight games against Miami this year. And he has two playoff games now with single-digit points. The only two times he posted decent scoring lines, once was because he had 12 free throw attempts, and the other was an anomalous 8-for-10 on 2s. He only even attempted one 2-pointer in Game 4.
Atlanta has not been good on the road this season, and the Heat have three wins this series by double digits. This series feels cooked. Trae and the Hawks just can't find any offense. I'll also play Young's turnovers over again. He's averaging 5.9 per game against the Heat in eight games this season, and he's gone over the posted line of 3.5 in all but one game.
Young had a great regular season, but it sure looks like the joyride is over.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Raheem Palmer: The Atlanta Hawks are struggling to score in this series, posting just 98.3 points per game on 1.03 points per possession. Despite having the league’s second-ranked Offensive Rating in the regular season, the Miami Heat have completely shut this Hawks team down, starting with Trae Young, who is averaging jut 16.5 points per game on 35.1% shooting and 21.2% from behind the arc.
Young is just 7-of-33 from 3-point range, and I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an All-Star player of his caliber play so poorly. John Collins has returned, but he hasn’t looked like himself, and De’Andre Hunter is the Hawks' leading scorer in this series at 17.2 points per game.
Nonetheless, it’s tough to expect a high offensive output from this team going forward based on what we’ve seen thus far. While the Heat are dominating this series up 3-1, this is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch. My model makes this game 210, so I’ll play the under at 217.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Munaf Manji: The series between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies has seen the highest set totals for the right reasons. Both offenses can get up and down the floor and play with tons of pace, especially to start the game. According to NBA Advanced Stats, during the regular season, particularly in the first quarter, both teams ranked among the top 10 in Offensive Efficiency and Pace.
That seems to have carried over into the postseason. In fact, through the first four games of this series, the first quarter is averaging 64.1 points. Further, the Wolves are averaging 36.3 points which is the most among the playoff teams this postseason. Additionally, both teams are tied for first in Pace in the first quarter in the postseason. Expect the pace and shotmaking to continue tonight in Game 5 in Memphis.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Raheem Palmer: Out of the 34 postseason games so far, the underdog has only covered and lost just twice, which means if you pick the winner of the game, you’re likely to hit your bet. The Memphis Grizzlies should win this game because of the home crowd and pure discipline which the Minnesota Timberwolves have lacked in this series.
Still, all of the issues we’ve seen from the Memphis Grizzlies in the regular season have reared their ugly head. This is a team that struggles to score in the halfcourt, but despite that, they’re scoring more efficiently than the Wolves in this series with them putting up an Offensive Rating of 99.5 in the half court vs. the the Wolves' 95.2.
The Grizzlies capitalize off of turnovers more than any other team, and the Wolves are turning the ball over on 15.3% of their possessions in this series. Even with Ja Morant struggling the past two games, averaging 13.5 points on 29% shooting, they’ve still split the last two games with them defeating the Wolves by nine in Game 3 and suffering a one-point loss in Game 4.
Nonetheless, with an improved performance from Morant and a more favorable whistle at home, the Grizzlies should get it done today.
