It should come as a surprise to no one that Stephen Curry's status as he chases the all-time 3-point record will be the big story in the NBA on Monday night. But Warriors vs. Pacers isn't the only game worth watching on Monday night.
Our NBA crew is eyeing three exciting matchups on tonight's nine-game slate and have four bets in those matchups. Check out their analysis and best bets for Monday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Joe Dellera: Jarrett Allen is a certifiable stud. He’s a player I’m sure the Nets wish they still had him on their roster to round out their interior defense.
He’s made a significant impact for the Cavaliers and has been a huge contributor in both points and boards. Allen is averaging a double double with 17.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. While his rebounding market has been sharp his points market has been a cash cow.
His points prop is set at 16.5 today and this is a line he has cleared in 10 of his last 11 games, including dropping 19 against this Miami team just two weeks ago.
One issue for Miami is they continue to be without Bam Adebayo who is their best interior defender and one of the best defenders in the entire league. Without him to clog up the paint, they’ve had to rely on Dewayne Dedmon who is effective as a stop-gap but is not an All-NBA defender.
I’ll take Allen to stay hot against the Heat and go over 16.5 points.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Kenny Ducey: One of the top stories in basketball right now is the Memphis Grizzlies. After losing Ja Morant, this defense has ratcheted it all the way up, reaching elite status and guiding the team to seven wins in eight tries.
I think this is where the fun ends — at least for one night.
The Sixers are on a bit of a run of their own with five wins in their last seven games, and that is due to the return of Joel Embiid as well as some of his teammates. Philadelphia finally has all of its key rotation pieces on the court (except for one Ben Simmons, of course) and is looking like a legitimate contender. While its offense has been spotty, its defense over the last seven contests ranks eighth in efficiency.
I think the Grizzlies’ numbers are due for a bit of regression on Monday. For starters, their strength of schedule lately has been incredibly weak, with their signature win likely coming against a Heat team missing Bam Adebayo. In addition to that, their frontcourt is hurting. Jaren Jackson, Jr. may miss this game, and Steven Adams likely will with a doubtful tag.
The loss of just Adams would have been bad enough, considering how important he is to the interior defense of Memphis and the fact that the team has a Rebounding Rate around five percentage points worse with him off the floor according to NBA.com. Missing Jackson in addition to Adams could be a deadly blow.
Regardless, I think the inflation of the Grizzlies’ numbers coupled with the loss of Adams will be simply too much to overcome here. Embiid should punch this defense in the mouth and Memphis will quickly remember what it’s like to play a good team. I got this at -2.5 but still like the current line of -3.5.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Matt Moore: I grabbed this at +3.5 Sunday night and it's moved a full point towards Charlotte. The Hornets are undermanned due to COVID, it's true. LaMelo Ball, Mason Plumlee, Jalen McDaniels and Ish Smith all remain out. However, Terry Rozier is out of protocols and is available.
This is way more to do with Dallas.
Dallas is without Luka Doncic, and while their defense was enough to get them past the inconsistent Thunder (who lost Lu Dort to an injury), they remain extremely fragile game to game.
More specifically, Dallas' offense is a mess. On the season, for the most part with Doncic, they are 22nd in Adjusted Offensive Rating. Per Cleaning The Glass, when the Mavericks face a top-10 offense (Charlotte ranks second), the Mavericks are 0-6 this season, and -7.8 vs. the spread.
The Mavericks' back-to-back is factored into the line, but we have a bad rest spot for Dallas without Luka Doncic against a top-10 offense and a team, who by the way has a better Adjusted Net Rating factoring for schedule than the Mavericks … and the Mavericks are favored?
I'll be on the moneyline as well, but I like this at any number, as I have the Hornets favored in this matchup by 3.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Raheem Palmer: This total has been steamed down from the opener of 219 to where it currently sits now at 216, but I’m not buying it. The Hornets are missing Lonzo Ball and potential PJ Washington but they remain one of the league’s worst defenses, allowing 113.1 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes — 28th among NBA teams.
Over the past two weeks this team is dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing a whopping 124 points per 100 possessions. Even without Luka Doncic in the lineup for the Mavericks they should find some success, particularly at the rim where the Hornets are allowing teams to shoot 66.1% — 24th among NBA teams. On the other side of the ball, the Mavericks aren’t very good defensively either, ranking 17th in Defensive Rating (109.5).
These are two teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum in regards to pace as the Hornets are third in Pace (100.7) and first in offensive length of possession (14.4) and the Mavericks are towards to the bottom of the league. However, with these poor defenses, I think we could see this game fly over the total.
I’ll take the over 216.
