To some, today is just another ho hum Monday in the NBA, but for our analysts there's always and edge to find. With just four games on tonight's hoops slate, our crew is looking at two matchups and see value on the spread and two props in those games.
Read below to get their analysis and best bets for Monday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
New YorkKnicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Raheem Palmer: My model makes tonight’s game Cavaliers -7.5, but I’m not buying that the difference between these two teams being is as high as the market and my model believes makes it.
The Cavaliers rank 17th in Offensive Rating (111.1) in their non garbage time minutes over the last two weeks and given the lack of playmakers outside of Darius Garland without Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio, this team struggles to consistently score.
The Knicks are a big team and should match up well with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The Knicks rank 22nd in half court offense, while the Cavs are 20th so I’m seeing two equally matched teams here. The Knicks have been playing much better recently as they’re 10th in Offensive Rating (113.1) and fifth in Defensive Rating (107.4) over the past two weeks and they come off a 110-102 victory over the Clippers on Sunday.
Although they are on a back-to-back, they’ve had a few days off before Sunday’s game, so I’ll expect them to keep it close here.
Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Anderson: Our Props Tool loves Goga Bitadze today, and it's easy to see why.
It's been a tough season for the Pacers, with injuries up and down the roster and a clutch season from hell with a myriad of close losses. But Indiana is crazy shorthanded these days, and tonight the entire presumed starting five will be watching as Chris Duarte, Justin Holiday, and Bitadze carry the load.
The young Georgian hasn't really established himself yet in the NBA, but he's finding a feel for things with two starts the past two games. Between those games, Bitadze has put up 29 points, 20 rebounds, and seven assists, averaging a double-double and starting to show some of his passing acumen out of the post. He's not exactly Domantas Sabonis out there, but he's playing 33 minutes a night and producing.
Expect Bitadze to play big minutes against Jonas Valanciunas tonight, and though that'll be a tough challenge, minutes typically means volume and that should lead to rebounding opportunities. Goga averages a rebound every 3.7 minutes the last two seasons, so he would need only 28 minutes to go over this number and we get it at even odds. He also had four offensive rebounds in each of these two starts.
If you want to play a little more aggressive, you can compile a Same Game Parlay with Bitadze going over 12.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists at +329 at FanDuel. He's cleared all three of those numbers in both of these last two starts, and they're pretty low bars for a talented big man getting starter minutes.
If you're just playing the rebounds, I'll play to -130.
Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Joe Dellera: As Brandon noted, the Pacers are decimated with injuries: Malcom Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner are out and Caris LeVert is listed as questionable tonight.
With that in mind, the Pacers are starting almost entirely a bench unit that’s a bit undersized and these players may not be as comfortable handling the increased usage. This opens up turnover and block opportunities.
Herb Jones has been on a roll this season and he’s played meaningful minutes for this Pelicans team with a bit of an uptick over his last ten games with 33.2 minutes per game.
He is one of the better rookies this season but he has not gotten the spotlight in the same way as the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year. On the season, Jones leads all rookies with 1.5 steals per game and is fifth in blocks per game with 0.9. He is a threat for both of these stats and that’s why I prefer the combo prop.
I’ll take Jones to go over 2.5 steals and blocks in this matchup against the Pacers’ bench, a line he has gone over in seven of his last 10 games.
