It's Friday night and with nine games on the slate, our experts are focused on just two of the games on the schedule.
Two of our NBA analysts are eying bets in the one of the earliest games on tonight's slate (Mavericks vs. Pacers 7 p.m. ET) and another is betting one of tonight's two ESPN games (Nets vs. Hawks 7:30 p.m. ET).
Check out their breakdowns and favorite bets for Friday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
Raheem Palmer: My model makes this game 211.5, but I’m not sure it’s capturing the true essence of both of these teams. The Pacers in particular have struggled defensively over the past two weeks, allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The Pacers are also just 18th in halfcourt defense, so I’m expecting Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to find some success here particularly from the perimeter where the Pacers are allowing teams to shoot 35.9% from behind the arc-25th among NBA teams.
The Mavericks take the fifth-highest percentage of 3-point field goal attempts (40.7%) so expect them to score at will from downtown. On the other side of the ball, the Mavericks aren’t very good defensively either. They’re 17th in half court points per possession and are 23rd in opponent field goal percentage at the rim (65.9%) and 23rd in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (36.4%).
Look for this Pacers offense which is sixth in Offensive Rating, scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions to have some success tonight. I’ll play the over 212.5.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
Brandon Anderson: You thought you were here for props, but you're getting a little DFS tonight instead. Dorian Finney-Smith isn't most notable player in the world, but he's the exact sort of role player all winning teams need. Finney-Smith defends hard, usually the top option on the other team, and he knows exactly what he is on offense. He shoots 3s when he's open and moves the ball along efficiently when he's not.
Finney-Smith is the epitome of a 3-and-D role player. And it's that efficient passing we're playing tonight, because DFS has been passing better than ever over the last few weeks.
DFS has multiple assists in seven straight games for the Mavericks, and he's averaging 2.7 APG during that stretch. That's seven straight overs at this number. Compare that to the 17 games before this stretch, where he averaged only 1.2 APG and went over only six times (35%).
It's not just random either. I love to check these numbers against Potential Assists at NBA Advanced Stats, and those numbers match the uptick. Finney-Smith averaged only 3.3 potential assists per game over those first 17, but that number has gone up to 4.7 during this seven-game stretch. That may not seem like much, but it's about a 50% increase so it's huge, and it's why we're seeing multiple assists each night.
If you want to get aggressive, you can bet Finney-Smith to record at least four assists at +680 at FanDuel. That number implies a 13% hit rate, meaning he should only hit that result once every eight games. But DFS has done it twice in the last five games, a 40% hit rate. It's still likely to lose, but the number is in our favor, and that's how this stuff works.
I love the over 1.5 assists at near even odds with the results we're seeing lately. I'll play to -130.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Kenny Ducey: The Nets continue to win, but so do bettors who fade them against the spread.
Brooklyn is now 2-11 ATS since Joe Harris went down with an injury, hampering this team’s ability to score. The Nets have been uber-reliant on the outside shot, so that makes perfect sense.
Over the past 10 games, the Hawks defense has been reminiscent of the dominant force which helped it march through the playoffs a year ago, ranking ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions. In that same period of time, the offense has ranked third in efficiency. Both are better than the Nets’ ranks, which tell the story of an offense that’s slipped just a hair and a defense that’s lost its identity.
There should be nothing holding this Hawks offense back, and with Atlanta allowing 33.9% shooting from three over the last 10 games, this offense shouldn’t see the improvement it’s looking for.
Atlanta is 7-4 against the spread as the favorite and 8-4 straight up at home this year, making this a solid spot to back the Hawks. I'd lay up two points here if the moneyline gets out of hand.
