The NBA has just two games on Thursday, but our Action Network NBA analysts have found five bets that they love in these marquee matchups. We have four best bets on Ben Simmons' return to Philly when the Nets face the 76ers and one bet on the nightcap between the Warriors and Nuggets. Read on for analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the lineup, they can’t make totals involving the Brooklyn Nets high enough. The Nets have gone over in two straight games, and with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor this season, they’re scoring 123.1 points per 100 possessions.
With a defense that can’t stop a nose bleed, ranking 29th in Defensive Rating (122.9) over the past two weeks, the Nets will typically find themselves in shootouts, particularly in road games when Irving is in the lineup. Irving is coming off a 50-point game against the Charlotte Hornets in which he shot 15-of-19 (78.9%) from the field.
The Nets will need another big performance against the Joel Embiid, James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers who’ve been downright dominant offensively. Since the All-Star break, the 76ers are scoring 120 points per 100 possessions, and with Embiid and Harden on the floor, they’re scoring 132.4.
The Nets don’t have the interior presence to slow down Embiid in the matchup, and we can expect this 76ers team, which is shooting a league high 33.7 free throw attempts per game since the All-Star Break, to go to the line a ton tonight.
Despite how well Philadelphia’s offense has played, their defense hasn’t been very good since acquiring Harden. They particularly struggle in transition where they’re 23rd in points per 100 possessions, so the Nets should have no problems getting out and scoring off makes and misses.
Overall, this is what I like to call a fire drill over. A game where both teams have dominant offenses which no prayer in the world to stop one another. It’s simply a race to get the best number on the over. On the Thursday Workshop podcast with Matt Moore, Joe Dellera and myself, I gave this out at 223. We’re now sitting at 234.5 and it’s still not high enough. My model makes this game 240.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Joe Dellera: Tonight’s showdown between the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers is must watch television. With superstars galore between Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, there should be no lack of points. We gave out the full game over at 223 on the Buckets Podcast, and it’s now skyrocketed to 234.5 at some books.
With that in mind, let’s look at some points props for tonight’s contest. Durant? No. Embiid? Not him either. Okay, but surely Irving or Harden then! Sure, I expect all of them to be effective offensively, but the value play is on a single-digit point total. Yes, I’m talking about defensive savant Matisse Thybulle.
Since Harden’s arrival in Philadelphia, Thybulle’s Usage has remained similar; however, his shot profile is a bit different, and he’s being used as a cutter and slasher much more often rather than relying on spot up 3s – which is great because he’s not a particularly good 3 point shooter (29% this season).
In the three games this season against the Nets, Thybulle crossed this 5.5 point threshold in two of them. In five games he has played with Harden, he’s cleared this prop in four of them with the sole miss coming against the Cavaliers. However, the Cavs are uniquely able to stop what he brings to the table due to the perimeter defense of Isaac Okoro and the twin towers of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the interior. The Nets do not have any of these defensive assets.
With Harden, Thybulle has point totals of 12, 0, 10, 8, and 11. I expect him to play plenty of minutes in this matchup considering Philadelphia will need his defense. He’s averaged 26.1 minutes per game on the season, and he has cleared this 5.5 points line in 20/27 with at least 25 minutes, including seven consecutive games.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Anderson: Philadelphia traded a heap of assets for a second star to pair with Joel Embiid, but it's starting to look like the Sixers might have gotten a third star in the deal too, and his name is Tyrese Maxey. Maxey has already been a breakout player for Philly this season in Simmons's absence, putting up 17.6 points and 4.5 assists a game in a much larger than expected role, often as the lead initiator of the offense.
But now that Maxey gets to play off the ball as a secondary initiator with spacing, he's exploded. Maxey has scored 28, 21, 25, 33, and 17 points in five games with Harden. He's averaging a robust 24.8 PPG in those games with at least 17 points in all of them, and we only have to go over 17.5 to hit this one. And in case you forgot, the Nets don't exactly play a ton of defense.
The over for this game has been hammered, up more than 10 points since opening, and the Sixers have been matching Maxey's speed even with Harden, so this should be a fast-paced high-scoring game. The Nets are also particularly bad at defending off-ball guards, ranking sixth worst in the league.
If you want to get more aggressive, you can play Maxey to score 20-plus at +138 on FanDuel, or you can go for 25-plus at +430. That's not enough juice to grab my attention at 20-plus, but the 25-plus alternate over looks juicy. Maxey has scored at least 25 in three of his five Harden games, hitting that prop 60% of the time versus an implied 19% hit rate. We're dealing with a pretty small sample here, but boy is that sample good.
There's one other reason Maxey's scoring is up: 3s. He's averaging 5.0 3-point attempts per game with Harden and making 3.2 of them, a blistering 64% from beyond the arc. That obviously won't keep up forever, but Maxey was one of the top shooting prospects in the nation out of high school, and he's never had this many clean looks. He was already at 39% before Harden arrived, and his volume is up from 3.6 attempts per game on what are now better looks.
Maxey has at least two 3s in all five Harden games. He's -145 to hit at least two tonight, so that's another solid play, even if he slows down from that 64%. If you're only playing one Maxey prop, I like the traditional points over best. I'll play the over 17.5 to -135.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Kenny Ducey: Since arriving in Philly, James Harden has made the players around him much better to the tune of the league’s No. 3 offense, judging by efficiency. He’s gone for 11 or more assists four of his first five games with the Sixers, though I’m not here today to talk about his assist prop, which is a little too expensive for my liking.
No, I’m here to talk about one of the beneficiaries of the Harden trade, Matisse Thybulle. He is seldom used for his offense and normally plays big minutes due to his defensive capabilities, but Harden has gotten him involved. He assisted on all four of his baskets — including a three — in a 12-point outing against the Bulls earlier this week and got Thybulle to the line to tack on a few more points. Getting him the ball on cuts was a huge part of Philly’s offensive gameplan, and I’d anticipate more of the same against Brooklyn.
Thybulle has gone for 10 or more points in three of the five games he’s played with Harden in the lineup, and with two incredibly talented scorers on the other side of the court, I anticipate Philly may lean on Thybulle for some additional minutes to help out on the perimeter. This should leave him out on the floor long enough to notch six points given what we’ve seen between him and Harden.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Joe Dellera: I went into greater detail on this matchup, but I'll summarize my thoughts here. The Nuggets have taken care of business since the All-Star break, and even though this is their second game in as many days, they are undervalued in this matchup.
The Warriors have struggled mightily — I'm surprised this game did not open closer to a pick'em or even Warriors -1.5. Instead, the Nuggets were getting 4 points initially. This has already moved to Nuggets +3.5 — I'd still take this value down to +2.5 (check real-time NBA odds here).
Denver has taken three in a row and four of the last six games against Golden State over the last two seasons. Denver has been the better team since the break and is on the rise. Even though the Nuggets have a rest disadvantage, they are a force to be reckoned with as long as they have Jokic.
I'll back Denver with the points, and I believe they can win this game outright.
