Three games on a Thursday night doesn't leave much variety, but our NBA analysts have zeroed in on bets in two of tonight's late games: Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz (9 p.m. ET), Heat vs. Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV).
Check out why they are seeing value on the the spread and total in each of those games along with their in-depth analysis on those matchup.
Thursday NBA Betting Picks
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
Brandon Anderson: The NBA continues to be wildly unpredictable from night to night, so let's stick with what we know. And we know the Utah Jazz are a regular season juggernaut.
The Jazz rank second in Net Rating, per Basketball. They're top five in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. They're bombing from deep on offense and dominating the paint on defense. They beat teams on the glass. They own opponents in the free throw column. They're good at a whole lot of things, and that's been true all year now.
In 2021, it's been a profitable idea to back the Jazz anytime Utah is favored by 5-to-9.5 points. So far this calendar year, the Jazz are an impressive 25-8 ATS in that spot, covering 76% of the time by an average of 5.6 points per game. They're 5-0 ATS when the opponent is on a back-to-back in that spot and 14-2 when it's a home game.
All of that is true for the Jazz tonight, benefiting for a second time this week by playing at home against an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pacers couldn't even beat the Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets last night — they're really gonna hang with Utah today?
We bet the Jazz in this spot two days ago against this exact spot playing the Hawks and coasted to a victory. Let's stick with what's working.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Malik Smith: The Heat started the season playing at an unbelievable level on defense. They held opposing teams below 100 points in four of their first five games. But things have swung in the other direction a bit over the past five games — the Heat have given up 110 points or more in four of five and rank 27th in Defensive Rating (114.3) in November.
On Thursday, they face the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back likely without Jimmy Butler, who suffered an ankle sprain in Wednesday's game against the L.A. Lakers. Defensively, the Heat have been about the same with Butler on or off the court, but their Pace goes up considerably when he's off the floor (97.07 to 101.74).
The Clippers have been rounding into form over the past five days. They ranked 26th in Offensive Rating (100.4) in their first five games but have jumped to eighth (111.9) over the next five thanks to some outstanding 3-point shooting (41.3% — second-best over that span).
According to Bet Labs, the under for both teams combined this month is 7-3 and without Butler in the lineup, I think it will be tough for the Heat to contain Paul George and the Clippers' bevy of shooters. I'll take the over up to 212.
