If you love marquee matchups, then oh boy is this Tuesday night NBA slate a good one for you. There are five matchups on the schedule for Tuesday night, an abnormally high amount of games, for this day of the week.
Among them are two star-studded meetings: Warriors vs. Bucks (7:30 p.m. ET) and Celtics vs. Lakers (10 p.m. ET). Those games, however, are not among the ones that our betting analysts are approaching.
Instead, they have three best bets — spread, player prop and over/under — in a relatively off-the-radar game: Pelicans vs. Jazz (9 p.m. ET).
Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Tuesday night below.
NBA Odds & Picks
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz
Chris Baker: This number is too low for two teams that rank top-12 in Pace and top-six in Adjusted Offensive Rating. This isn’t just a blind bet on the metrics either as these teams don’t match up particularly well in my opinion.
The Jazz specialize in switching screens and making a conscious effort to limit 3-pointers as they rank No. 1 in the NBA in opponent 3-point frequency. Where they struggle is at the rim, ranking 18th in Opponent Rim Rate.
In the first matchup between these two teams, the Pels had a remarkable 47% Rim Rate (96th percentile). The Jazz don’t have the bodies to consistently alter shots in the paint and they certainly don’t have the bodies to match up with Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas. The Pelicans will also have an edge on the glass as they rank ninth in Offensive Rebound Rate while the Jazz rank 28th in Defensive Rebound Rate.
The Pelicans' numbers are likely slightly skewed since Herbert Jones has been out for about for nine games this season. When Jones, Williamson, and Valanciunas have played together the Pelicans rank in the 100th percentile with an astonishing 41.4% Offensive Rebound Rate, according to Cleaning the Glass. For reference, the Houston Rockets are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and they are down at 33.3%. This Pelicans team should be able to generate tons of second chances tonight.
On the flip side of the ball, I expect the Jazz to have some success on offense as well. The Pelicans are third in Adjusted Defensive Rating, but they struggle to limit the 3s as they rank 26th in 3-point rate allowed. This is an absolute necessity against this Jazz offense that ranks fifth in 3-point rate.
The Pelicans have been fortunate as they haven’t played a ton of high-volume 3-point shooting teams, but every time they have played a team that ranks top-five in 3-point rate they have posted a sub 50th percentile Defensive Rating. They allowed the IndianaPacers, Dallas Mavericks, and Boston Celtics to exceed 119 points per 100 possessions and they allowed this Jazz team to score 113.0 points per 100 (48th percentile).
I expect the Jazz to be productive on offense with Mike Conley and Lauri Markkanen returning to the lineup rested and this game should soar over due to the mismatches on both sides of the ball. I'd play this up to 233.5.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz
Jim Turvey: If you follow me in the Action Network app, you know this is going back to the well.
There was a stretch where I played Olynyk unders with great regularity, and Tuesday is another prime spot for this play. The Jazz are back to near full health, which means the scoring will be more dispersed, and the Pelicans are a very tough matchup for Olynyk.
For one thing, I'll be curious to see how many minutes Olynyk gets. He's not a great matchup fit for any of the Pelicans bigs on defense, and while he might be able to give Jonas Valanciunas some trouble on the other end, his woeful rebounding might prove too costly.
The Pelicans are also one of the better 3-point defenses, allowing opponents to shoot just 33.5% from deep — second-best in the Association. They also don't foul, sending their opponents to the line the second-fewest times per game, as well.
Now it's time for the main ingredient: regression. Olynyk is currently sporting 54/46/83 splits on this season. Those are crazy numbers, and especially when compared to his career splits of: 48/37/79.
While the smoothness of the Utah offense can account for a small percentage of those jumps, he is still due for regression across the board, especially in regards to his 3-point percentage. He's also going to the line more often this season, and dishing out more assists than any other full season.
All of this is due in part to Utah's excellent offense, but he's also been running a bit too hot, so I will continue to be on the under train, especially in games that fit the profile like the Pellies on Tuesday.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz
Matt Moore: Spot, matchup, and number. I make this close to a pick 'em even with manual boosts for how the Pels have been playing and how the Jazz have slid lately.
The spot is good with the Pelicans coming off two monster wins against the Phoenix Suns now in a letdown spot against a Jazz team that's finally healthy and back at home after two days rest to recalibrate. And the team matchup is excellent with the Pelicans bottom-four in three-pointers attempted and made per 100 possessions and the Jazz top-five.
The Pelicans may have trouble winning the math game vs. the Jazz, and they are just the type of team that the Jazz have snuck up on this season. I'll grab the points and play moneyline too.
